John Liu: Mayor Of NYC: 2013
Image via WikipediaWhen I showed up for John Liu's inauguration and the after party, I got the sense that John Liu feels like Bill Thompson deserved to have another shot at the top job. It was not explicit, but it was implied, it was in the air. And that was a statement to how genuinely and strongly John Liu felt about Thompson's candidacy. They really like each other. Thompson's margin was closer than anyone thought, way closer than I expected.
Personally I was rooting for Bloomberg for deeply personal reasons. (Independent For Bloomberg) And I really liked the emphasis on immigration and immigrants that the Mayor put during the inauguration ceremony. Immigration colored the entire inauguration ceremony. (The Dumbfuck Immigration Laws) I loved that. He has been an excellent Mayor. He is a personal hero of mine. (Larry Ellison) He not only brought business sense to city government procedures, running for and being Mayor has been the best business move he ever made. Look at what that did to his net worth. His company's market valuation went up and up.
And it was great to have John show up for this Holi event put together by the Madhesis in town: Happy Holi. He did not show up for the votes. There were hardly any voters in the room. I greatly appreciated that. Although I feel like I have a doctor-patient relationship with the Madhesis of New York City. ("Madisey") Internalized prejudice is as big a problem as prejudice.
But then there are friendships, political loyalties, party affiliations, and then there is politics.
My Number One Prediction For 2013
All sorts of motherfuckers are going to run for Mayor in 2013. It is going to be one crowded Democratic primary. There is going to be no particular itch for Bill Thompson. If it is going to be Bill Thompson's year, the dude is going to have to prove himself all over again, almost from scratch.
That is going to be a statement on the long shadow Mayor Bloomberg has cast over this city for a decade. People are not going to wait in line. There is no line. There never has been. You don't wait in line. That is not how democracy works.
Three Years: A Very Long Time In New York City Politics
John Liu doing a good job as City Comptroller for three years and being in the news for three years is not going to be the same John Liu who spoke at his inauguration and introduced his brothers "Bobby and Teddy." The only reason for John to not run for Mayor would be because he feels it is better to seek guaranteed reelection than to take an iffy shot at the mayoral office.
The problem with that risk averseness is if he does a lousy job as Comptroller, his reelection is not going to be guaranteed. If he does a good job, it is going to be very hard for him to resist the enormous grassroots pressure he is going to feel to run for Mayor. Motherfuckers are not going to shy away and make room for Bill Thompson - already people are like Bill who; the same thing happened to Fernando Ferrer, two months after election day people were like, Fernando who - but many of the motherfuckers are going to wilt and wither if John Liu shows up as candidate. He is going to have a Bloomberg like aura for having done a good job as Comptroller.
One Shot: The American Way
Howard Dean did not run for president again in 2008. If it is about running for City Council, you can try it out a few different times, maybe, but that does not apply to the major offices. The office of Mayor of NYC is the number two political office in America. It is a big one. I don't see Bill Thompson even running. 2000 was close for Al Gore also. He did not run again in 2004.
Paterson imploded. Rangel is imploding. Thompson has evaporated already. Bill Perkins is the only black guy in town who appreciated the idea of the first black president. I am surprised he is not running for Congress from Harlem.
12% of America is black. 12% of New York City is Asian. Blacks have had their day. It is time for some Asian power.
As for Rangel, I think I am going to save my compassion for the tsunami victims.
Having What It Takes
John Liu has what it takes. He has the political ingredients. Either you have them, or you don't. John Liu has them. Just look at some facts. No politician in town today is on better terms with labor than John Liu. How did he do that? You got to marvel. He is more popular with blacks than any black politician in town. How did he do that? He earned more votes than Bloomberg last year. How did he do that? The story from last year's election is not that Thompson's margin was close, but that Liu got more votes than Bloomberg. John Liu could have beat Bloomberg, Thompson was not able to. Bill Thompson failed.
2013 Or Never
I am making the judgment call that either John Liu is going to be Mayor in 2013 or he is never going to be Mayor. Democracy asks for basic humility. It is ultimately the voters who decide, and that's the way it should be.
First of all, if he decides not to run despite being the best candidate around, that is going to show he has good political judgment but not good enough.
Second, his not running will mess up all future rounds for him. Look at a few scenarios. Someone else wins. If that person is Democratic, and is so bad that he/she is destined to be a one term Mayor, Liu still could not run in 2017. If he/she is good, Liu can not run until 2021. But if the 2013 person is a one term Mayor, and some other Democrat wins in 2017, that will bar Liu from running against the incumbent in 2021.
Obama needed to run in 2008 or he was just another Evan Bayh. Only John Liu can decide if he will run for Mayor in 2013. But if he runs, I am predicting he will win. (Jupiter And Obama) My grade for work done so far as Comptroller is an A+. If he runs, many of the motherfuckers who might otherwise run will stay out. That is not going to be true if Bill Thompson runs. John Liu has been casting a long shadow. That is remarkable for a dude who is not a billionaire. His power and potential for more power comes from sheer political skills. That is remarkable. That is beyond outstanding.
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