Showing posts from February, 2014

Modi In Delhi, Nitish In Patna?

English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World Economic Forum in India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)Rebellion in Nitish Kumar’s party, JD(U) expels four MPs
The expelled Lok Sabha members are Captain Jainarain Nishad (from Muzaffarpur), Purnmasi Ram (Gopalganj), Sushil Kumar Singh (Aurangabad) and Mangani Lal Mandal (Jhanjharpur). Three of them — Nishad, Ram and Mandal — were suspended earlier..... the party had information that while Nishad and Singh are likely to join BJP, Ram and Mandal are in touch with Lalu Prasad's RJD. Ram was earlier also in touch with BJP .... Nishad had last year organized a (Narendra) 'Modi yagna', supporting the BJP's prime ministerial candidate's bid for power. Ram had also met a close aide of Modi then. Both the leaders were making statements against Nitish Kumar.... While Nishad hails from the OBC community of fishermen, Ram is a Dalit leader and BJP has been courting them as it seeks to expand its vote base in Bihar ahead of Lok Sabha elec…

BJP+ 200, Third Front 180, Congress+ 100, Others 65

There is certainly a Modi wave. If the BJP will move from 100 to 200 MPs, that is a wave. The question is, will the BJP go past 200?

There are allegations that polling agencies have been skewing results. That is very possible. In 2004 the polling agencies projected a victory for the BJP. That is not what happened.

My current guess is the BJP led coalition is around 200, the Third Front is around 180, the Congress led coalition is near 100, and Others including AAP are near 65. Those numbers don't look good for Modi. The Congress extending outside support to the Third Front is a very real possibility. You can hear Kejriwal badmouthing Modi, but never Nitish. AAP has never claimed Nitish is corrupt.

Modi is possibly making moves in Uttar Pradesh. But Laloo's MLAs want to join Nitish. Paswan's sole remaining MLA has already joined Nitish. Obviously they don't feel like there is a Modi wave in Bihar. But then Congress MLAs have joined Modi in Gujrat.

That should t…

There Is A Modi Wave

English: nehal,narendra modi (Photo credit: Wikipedia) My reading is right now this election is Modi's to lose. Not only is noone else running for Prime Minister, Modi has innovated and has been running something akin to a presidential campaign in America. He is the only one running a national campaign. It is impressive to watch. He might build even further momentum over the next two months.

BJP's NDA 236
Third Front 186
Congress' UPA 96
Others 27

Modi could co-opt Jayalalita by offering him the DPM slot. He could co-opt Kejriwal by putting together something akin to a Lokpal Bill. He could co-opt Nitish by granting Special Category Status to Bihar.

The Third Front is not a cohesive force. There is the Mayawati-Mulayam animosity. There is the Left-Mamata animosity.

Modi coming to power in Delhi puts Nitish in a tight spot. One saving grace would be the Third Front, the Congress, and the AAP all coming together. But then that is an even taller order than the Third…



The Aspiring States Of India


Could It Be Mamata?

Polling the Indian electorate is a tough proposition. But let's go by some numbers.

BJP set to emerge as single largest party in Lok Sabha polls: Survey
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to get 236 seats..... Congress, which came out with flying colours in the last General Elections, would be confined to 73 seats, while the fledging Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to get around 10 seats in the Lok Sabha polls ....... As far as the choice of prime ministerial candidate was concerned, Modi, backed by over 57 per cent respondents .......the federal front would beat the UPA with around 186 seats..... All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) would secure 29 seats, followed by AIADMK with 19 and BJD is expected to win on 16 seats I think 200 is a magic number. If Modi can get the BJP past 200, then the democratic impulses of leaders in all parties will tell them the guy has a mandate, or at least something larger than everyone else. The BJP at 217 and the NDA at 236 is very close…

Modi's Cards To Play

If Modi manages to get the BJP past 200 seats, all bets are off. The BJP getting 40 out of 80 seats in UP finishes Mulayam as a PM candidate. The BJP grabbing 20 of Bihar's 40 seats also makes sure Nitish stays in Patna. That might also be the Bihari people's way of saying they like Nitish so much they want him to stay put in Patna for another 10 years. And no matter how well Jayalalita does in Tamilnadu she might just be angling to be Deputy Prime Minister. Modi has been running an impressive campaign. It is pretty much unprecedented. His style makes it look like he is the only one running for Prime Minister. Giving Bihar Special Category status gets Nitish. Doing the Lokpal Bill gets Kejriwal. This is not me writing off the so-called Third Front, something that does not exist by the way, at least not yet. This is me saying Modi has been running a campaign the likes of which I have not seen. Nitish has to grab at least 25 seats in Bihar if he is to be a contender. But it is p…

India 2014: Most Interesting

2014 is shaping to be the most interesting Indian election of my lifetime to date. The Congress that spearheaded India's independence struggle and then ruled for much of the half century after that is headed to below 100 seats. The BJP just might go past 200. AAP might emerge the third largest party: Kejriwal's resignation as Delhi Chief Minister was a political master stroke. Could AAP end up with 50 seats? I don't know.

BJP will get highest ever Lok Sabha tally, Congress lowest: Times Now poll
The poll projected that the BJP would win 202 seats if the elections were held now and its allies another 25, giving the NDA 227 seats in the 543-member LS. The Congress, in sharp contrast, would sink to just 89 and even with 12 seats from its allies the UPA would barely cross the 100 mark, it predicted. ..... With "others" likely to win 215 seats and many of them having joined hands with the BJP in the past, that would be very good news for those rooting for Narendra Modi