Modi's Cards To Play
If Modi manages to get the BJP past 200 seats, all bets are off. The BJP getting 40 out of 80 seats in UP finishes Mulayam as a PM candidate. The BJP grabbing 20 of Bihar's 40 seats also makes sure Nitish stays in Patna. That might also be the Bihari people's way of saying they like Nitish so much they want him to stay put in Patna for another 10 years. And no matter how well Jayalalita does in Tamilnadu she might just be angling to be Deputy Prime Minister.
Modi has been running an impressive campaign. It is pretty much unprecedented. His style makes it look like he is the only one running for Prime Minister.
Giving Bihar Special Category status gets Nitish. Doing the Lokpal Bill gets Kejriwal.
This is not me writing off the so-called Third Front, something that does not exist by the way, at least not yet. This is me saying Modi has been running a campaign the likes of which I have not seen.
Nitish has to grab at least 25 seats in Bihar if he is to be a contender. But it is possible the people of Bihar want Modi in Delhi and Nitish in Bihar. Nitish Kumar's JD(U) might win over 60% of the seats in Bihar's next state elections. A 14% growth rate for a landlocked agricultural state is mind blowing.