Showing posts with label FDR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FDR. Show all posts

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Imagine FDR Delegating World War II To Governors

World War II did not go to every country on earth. This pandemic has. World War II did not freeze national economies and supply chains, although there were unmistakable disruptions. My point is, on scale, this is big. World War II seems to be the only available metaphor. But that is like using earth as a metaphor to talk about Jupiter. Jupiter is also a planet, alright.

And Trump has been botching it.
  • He spent precious weeks in denial. He was going to tweet the pandemic away. 
  • A nationwide lockdown lasting three weeks would have been the least disruptive economically and the most effective medically. When testing everyone is not an option, putting everyone in isolation for three weeks is enough time for the infected to start showing symptoms and qualify for further self-isolation. 
  • Just like FDR needed airplanes in huge numbers, this pandemic is asking for supplies: masks, gloves, ventilators, hospital beds. This pandemic would be a good reason to call a truce on the trade war with China. China seems to have an immediate capacity to produce those things plenty. If not, the wartime act for this needed to be put to practice. Domestic production needed to be ramped up. 
  • Trump is in a hurry to get America back to work. Because if the economy does not go back to pre-pandemic, he is toast in November. The fastest way to get America back to work is through widespread testing. Everyone who needs to or wants to get tested should be able to get tested with results showing up within the hour. Then you become much better at identifying and isolating people. And the rest can go to work. 
  • But is is already late. The sky has already fallen. The unemployment numbers already have passed Depression levels. Numerous businesses have already gone belly up. 
  • With Trump not only is the national dimension missing, but the global dimension is also missing. This pandemic is global. Only a coordinated global dimension will work. In the aftermath of 9/11 the FBI and the CIA learned to work together. Now national governments will have to learn that same lesson. Otherwise you are looking at massive deaths and massive economic disruption. 
  • Trump is unfit for the moment. He has failed to rise to the occasion. Trump has botched it bigly.


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Sunday, July 26, 2015

FDR Was No Keynesian

John Maynard Keynes Русский: Джон Мейнард Кейн...
John Maynard Keynes Русский: Джон Мейнард Кейнс Türkçe: John Maynard Keynes (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
John Maynard Keynes and FDR were contemporaries. Keynes, of course, fathered macroeconomics. FDR fathered what is known as the New Deal. But the real stimulus was World War II itself. FDR was not someone who had read up on Keynes, and then got into office and applied the ideas. He did the New Deal based on his political instincts. His populist impulse was massive deficit spending in the face of a huge recession. And it worked.

What I call globoeconomics, I have been calling since 2008, I don't have the economics/finance background to put a theoretical spin to, but the political part of it is fairly obvious. Here too perhaps the dog can wag the tail. You build a genuine world government, and globoeconomics will flow out of it.

Defense Budget: Too Big
The 4%
A Fan Of Israel
Guns Are Insanity
Shashi Tharoor: Impressive Speech At Oxford
लालु यादव: मौसम वैज्ञानिक
Climate Change Is For Real
Barack Obama Is Biologically Superior
Barack Obama Should Create And Lead A Genuine World Government
How To Make Peace With Pakistan
Putin
Political Reform For China
Climate Change, Terrorism, Poverty, World Government
2001, 2002, 2008: Cycle Of Violence
न्यु यर्क मेरा होमटाउन
So Much For The Butterfly Effect
Modi: A Force Of Nature
Elon Musk's Hyperloop And India

Wednesday, September 08, 2010

Radio Debate: Reshma Saujani, Carolyn Maloney


If FDR were around today, he would NOT be doing radio chats. He would disapprove of these two East Side politicians doing a radio chat. FDR would be doing YouTube, like Barack Obama is. I don't understand Maloney's love for radio technology. Or maybe I do.



Audio Of The Debate
Another Audio
New York Times: Debate In House Race Stirs Big Passions For A Small Audience: a long-awaited radio debate .... abruptly hit Ms. Maloney with a tough question about her ethics..... when Ms. Saujani chimed in that “Carolyn Maloney just lied,” Mr. Louis left the accusation hanging ..... WWRL-AM (1600), which ranks about 50th among stations in the metropolitan area ....... The primary contest has grown increasingly heated as election day draws near, with each woman calling the other dishonest and desperate. ..... refused several invitations to debate her rival on television ..... Saujani had raised $1.36 million ..... Saujani pounded her again and again, belittling her recent legislative record by calling her a “member of Congress emeritus” and denigrating her intellect by questioning Ms. Maloney’s mastery of Wall Street jargon. ..... “If I were to ask Carolyn Maloney what a basis point is, she probably doesn’t know,” Ms. Saujani said. ..... “People are sick and tired of the corruption and lack of ethics and integrity,” Ms. Saujani said. ...... Ms. Maloney seemed to stumble here, saying, “I was not involved in fund-raising,” though she did not deny having attended the two events or that her campaign team, in which she presumably has some role, had arranged them. ......Saujani kept on the attack until the end, accusing Ms. Maloney of doing too little for Queens and of taking sole credit for achievements that were not hers alone, from the Second Avenue subway line to the establishment of a new bank in Queensbridge. And she tried to deflate Ms. Maloney’s passage of credit card reform legislation last year by noting that a delay in its implementation allowed card issuers to raise interest rates.

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Friday, March 05, 2010

The Obama FDR Parallels

Paul Krugman, Laureate of the Sveriges Riksban...Image via Wikipedia
"The New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who fears a lost decade, said in a lecture at the London School of Economics last summer that he has “no idea” how the economy could quickly return to strong, sustainable growth."
FDR's was the Great Depression. We are calling ours the Great Recession. FDR gave us Social Security, Obama is going to give Universal Health Care. The recession is over. The recession is not over. You love me, you love me not.

I think there are obvious parallels between the Great Depression and what we are going through right now, but it is also important to realize we are treading new territory.

(1) The Bailout

That was necessary. It is interesting that many of the banks have already paid back most of the money. I am on record at this blog saying that is what will happen, although I did not see it happening this fast. But they have not paid back all the money, so.

The bailout was putting the fire out. Without the bailout it would not have been a Great Recession but Great Depression II.

(2) The Stimulus 

It was necessary but insufficient. When it was put together, I was not shocked by the size of it. What did bother me was it focused too much on the past and too little on the future. I was surprised how little was allocated to broadband, for example.

(3) Banking Regulation

Work here has not gone as well as needed. Wall Street needs a new set of pants. Take off the boxer shorts. Put on some pants.

(4) Public Works Programs

Basically I am arguing for a second stimulus package that might be similar in size to the first one. This would be one pig push to create a truly post-industrial America. The first big wave of job creation will have to be the government's work, otherwise the 10% unemployment figure is feeling pretty comfortable where it is. You did not rely on the market for the bailout, or the stimulus, you sure do not expect the market to do the regulation work. That same courtesy has to be extended to job creation.

Most of the job creation will happen in the education and health sectors. Instead of creating a Tennessee Valley Authority, you would create a program to hire a ton of mentors to kick-start the inner cities, for example.

Universal and faster broadband is fundamental to this very idea. That is the centerpiece. That basic physical infrastructure is what will take both education and health to their next levels. Obama has to build that universal, faster broadband infrastructure like Eisenhower built the interstate highway system. Without that America is not going to become a post-industrial society. People will have to be plugged in.

The idea has to be for the government to hire five million people. If you are going to do it anyway, it makes no sense to do it later, or do it in small steps. Creating new jobs has to be the centerpiece of the second stimulus bill.

Education and health will have to be reimagined. That is why getting health care right is so key. It can't just be about adding entitlement programs for people who are known will not pay in, although everyone has to be covered. It also has to be about bringing the costs down across the board. You inject technology and the market forces into the sector.

On Deficits And Debts

The time to reign in the deficit and the debt will come, but that time is not now. Once the recovery is full, the political wind will blow in that direction.
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