Showing posts with label Great Depression. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Great Depression. Show all posts

Monday, June 17, 2019

The US Economy Is In Trouble

The numbers are rosy. The unemployment rate is officially the lowest it has been in 50 years. The stock market is riding high. The growth rate last year was approaching 4% and even now is fairly solid. What could go wrong? Those numbers hide the fragility.

The unemployment numbers are so low because a lot of people have simply stopped looking for work. The actual unemployment rate in the US might be more like 12% or 15%. Nobody really knows. The numbers for low employment are structurally cooked.

The stock market is riding high just like in 2007 the real estate market was riding high. This is the sugar high from stock buyback programs. The super rich, flush with cash, finding no productive use for the money, are simply buying back stocks. The corporate interests are in this vicious cycle. That is further exacerbating inequality.

It feels like the US and the world simply kicked the can further down the road when 2008 happened. No lasting solution was put into place.

The US deficit and debt are real problems. In the depth of 2009, Obama struggled to put together a trillion dollar stimulus package. I think he asked for more but got only 700 billion. These days the US runs a trillion dollar deficit as a matter of fact. What was thought of a big deficit in 2009 these days is simply routine. A massive budget deficit has become business as usual.

The debt is so big and getting bigger, it is not even talked about. It has been archived in the denial file.

No, I am not talking about Trump. He never was the solution. A lot of people who have stopped looking for work were people who thought Trump was it. And then they realized they have been duped. And in shame, they stopped simply looking for work. It is not a good feeling to realize you have been duped.

I am talking about economic theorists and political theorists and thinkers in general. Where are the economic theorists at? Abstract thinkers like Paul Krugman and Raghuram Rajan do show up in the mainstream media. But I don't see them offering solutions. The very paradigm needs to shift. Big thoughts are needed. The band-aid remedies are as misleading as Trump's demagoguery. There is a poverty of imagination.

Maybe it is time to delink the global economy from the dollar. Just like there was a time to delink the dollar from gold. The place of the dollar in the global economy is the very reason why the US runs such large deficits and debts. And those large deficits and debts come up with a price paid for by ordinary Americans. The current arrangement is not a healthy arrangement perhaps. For a national currency to also serve as the global currency is perhaps too much of a burden on that national currency.

Perhaps the WTO needs a new round of negotiations. Trade is a good thing. There is sound economic theory behind trade, still largely undisputed. But maybe the WTO cannot act holier than thou about the resulting inequality. People are not abstract. People are real. Trade perhaps can no longer be delinked from the inequality it creates. Rises in productivity are good. But the resulting inequality is existential. There is a need for a redesign. People are hurting for lack of jobs in the US. People are hurting for jobs in India. Neither the ruling party nor the opposition party, in either case, seem to have any real solutions. In such a scenario the very democracy will get questioned given enough time.

Trump is but the American Boris Johnson who argues for a "hard Brexit." That hard Brexit will turn Britain into the new Greece. But Boris Johnson trades in anger. He does not care. Those who trade in anger and feast on that anger simply want more people angrier. The best case scenario is self-destruction. A bad scenario is large scale destruction. The world avoided a Great Depression in 2008. This time it might be harder to do the same. Back then the leaders were at least talking. This time that "talk" is missing. Irrationality holds sway.

Elizabeth Warren is the only one with a plan. Her wealth tax is that plan. She has not yet linked that to the idea of a Universal Basic Income. Andrew Yang talks about UBI. But that UBI does not stand on sound financial footing yet. He has not linked it to some kind of a wealth tax. Not yet. But even the wealth tax is mere tinkering. It is sound tinkering. It is a start. But a real solution is a much more ambitious redesign. Where are the thinkers at?

Should there be a 2008 style meltdown, and you never know with Trump playing with fire, the US central bank has little to no option left. When the interest rate is already near zero, how do you further cut it? My thought is the Fed will be forced to do a UBI, a quantitative easing for the people. It will be forced to issue new money and simply give it to every American in the form of a direct deposit each month. The Fed will have nowhere else to go. There is no room for interest rate cuts. The banks are already flush with cash, as are the corporations. So it is not lack of cash that is hurting the economy. There is no room for quantitative easing for the banks. The only option left is a quantitative easing for the people.

But that can only go for a few years. A real UBI will have to be designed and implemented as a conscious choice made by elected leaders. The crisis might force the introduction. But there will be a need for a conscious second act.



Monday, June 03, 2019

Real Donald Jerry Seinfeld Trump?



We look for grand strategy. There is none. People accuse Trump of lying: "Four lies in one tweet!" Trump is not a liar, but a bullshitter. A bullshitter is such a habitual liar, he does not know, he does not care he is lying. If you know Trump, he is a joke. If you don't know him, he is a fascist. Hitler was a joke in 1920s Germany. He was considered a clown.

Trump won 2016 by spending very little money. As late as August he was way behind in the polls.

It is funny until it is not funny. Real lives are at stake.

A fascist intimidation of Mueller and Pelosi is on full public display. Ken Starr did pronounce Bill Clinton guilty and recommend impeachment to the Congress. Mueller's logic that he cannot pronounce guilt was not applied in his statement to the media. He could not prosecute, but he could pronounce guilt. But he was intimidated. He made it clear he has no desire to appear before Congress. He does not want to be at the receiving end of fascist harangues. A guy who was the top law enforcement officer of the country is running intimidated. That shows Trump is not funny. He is dangerous.

Pelosi's intimidation is on full public display. The moment Hillary lost the election in 2016 is when she fainted on TV. And she fainted a few days after Trump said in a debate with her about rape in the military: "Whichever genius came up with the idea of women serving in the military!"

That is extreme emotional intelligence but going in the dark direction. He swatted every Republican competitor in the race with a phrase or two. There was Little Marco. Bush was a shame to his family.

He did the same to the voters. You are angry? Let me tap into that.

That fountain of anger has stayed with him. Step back and look objectively. Is he not doing everything he can to push the US economy and the global economy into a Grand Depression? There is a cliff and he knows it. Once he manages to push the global economy into a Great Depression, it might take anyone a decade to turn things around. But the point is, if more people are going to be angrier, his support base is going to expand. That is what he is counting on. Yes, there is a strategy. Those who say Trump has no strategy are in denial.

Fascist intimidation is working. Pelosi has until October. After that, the presidential campaign sucks up all the oxygen in the room.

The country is in meltdown mode. Steve Bannon and Donald Trump both are looking for a "hard Brexit" for America. Britain wants a divorce with Europe. America wants a divorce with the world.

Are we moving towards a WTO minus the United States? Will that be as harmless as a Trans-Pacific Partnership minus the US? Experts tell us trading blocs are no solution. They were a feature of the Great Depression of the 1930s.

These are dangerous times. This trade war is not a China-US war. It affects every country. Every country needs to speak up.






Andrew Yang: The Only One With A Solution
In The News (3)
In The News (2)
A Bad Scenario For Trump
In The News (1)
The Possible Outline Of A Deal Between Xi And Trump In June
Will The Trade War Force A New Equilibrium?



CIA admits role in 1953 Iranian coup The CIA has publicly admitted for the first time that it was behind the notorious 1953 coup against Iran's democratically elected prime minister Mohammad Mosaddeq, in documents that also show how the British government tried to block the release of information about its own involvement in his overthrow...... Britain, and in particular Sir Anthony Eden, the foreign secretary, regarded Mosaddeq as a serious threat to its strategic and economic interests after the Iranian leader nationalised the British Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, latterly known as BP. But the UK needed US support. The Eisenhower administration in Washington was easily persuaded....... Mosaddeq's overthrow, still given as a reason for the Iranian mistrust of British and American politicians, consolidated the Shah's rule for the next 26 years until the 1979 Islamic revolution. It was aimed at making sure the Iranian monarchy would safeguard the west's oil interests in the country....... One document describes Mosaddeq as one of the "most mercurial, maddening, adroit and provocative leaders with whom they [the US and Britain] had ever dealt". The document says Mosaddeq "found the British evil, not incomprehensible" and "he and millions of Iranians believed that for centuries Britain had manipulated their country for British ends". Another document refers to conducting a "war of nerves" against Mossadeq.....

Mosaddeq epitomised a unique "anti-colonial" figure who was also committed to democratic values and human rights

..... there was never really a fair compromise offered to Mosaddeq, what they wanted Mosaddeq to do is to give up oil nationalisation and if he'd given that of course then the national movement would have been meaningless....... The basic facts are widely known to every school child in Iran

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Trade War Endgame Scenarios






Looks like the two sides have been talking past each other in the so-called trade talks. Each side has been stating its positions, again and again, basically repeating what they said earlier. Another round of talks might not ameliorate that situation. But by now the fallouts have become serious for the two economies. Widespread damage will soon be seen. Those on the US side will be much more visible.

Donald Trump thinks he is this amazing dealmaker. That is his whole thing. You create a crisis where there was none. Then you negotiate and try and get a better deal. Well, if that is the script, does it work? There are liars, and there are bullshitters. A liar knows he is lying. A bullshitter doesn't. It is hard to negotiate with a bullshitter.

Do I buy that he is doing this for the cause of democracy? Look at the track record. He is the biggest fan of dictators around the world. He loves that dude in the Phillippines, an elected dictator. The guy is a white supremacist. He is not a democrat. He has fascist tendencies. He talks about "the press," the way presidents in the US never did before him. He wants his supporters to get physical. Donald Trump Brown Shirts.

No, I don't believe this trade war is about democracy.

I fear the US economy is going to end up like one of his casinos. Worse, the contagion might be global. Donald Trump is America's Brexit. British hubris decided to take the plunge where British interests might not have.

These trade wars are casino wars. Trump's "negotiations" with the North Korean dude should work as a warning sign. We all know how unprepared Trump was for that. He came back saying he was so charming North Korea agreed to denuclearize. Not true. The Bullshitter-In-Chief did what he does best: he bullshitted. Only now he is talking to China. China finds itself negotiating with vapor.

A fascist fantasizes for a Great Depression.

A trade war has two losing sides. So, of course, China will lose.



US China Trade War: A Meeting Of The Hot And Cold Fronts
New Twist In The Trade War: China Devalues Its Currency
5G And The Trade War
The US China Trade War Escalation Is Primarily Political
The US China Tension: Creative Or Destructive?

Huawei is said to have been stockpiling US components for months in preparation for such a situation and even has an alternative operating system on the shelf.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Fear Of Gun Violence Is Black Slavery Today

Mars is the new Moon. Now we want to go to Mars. Shift happens. Similarly, I think it is fair to say gun violence is the black slavery today. The black neighborhoods of this country have been infested with both drugs and violence. I don't know how much of this is random and how much of this is planned, but the impact is devastating. If there were a racist conspiracy to keep black people down, you would push drugs and guns into The Hood. It works like magic. The black community stands knee-capped. It's a tragedy, because it is such a waste. Black potential is human potential. We would all be better off if black folks had a shot in life.

Mars is the new Moon. And gun violence is the black slavery today. You can not take America into the 21st century without a constitutional amendment that settles the gun debate once and for all. I thought that might happen before gay marriage went national. I am glad gay marriage has gone national, but gun violence also needs to stop. I am glad poor white folks now have health care, but black folks deserve a life without a permanent threat of guns.

I can't think of a better way for the first black president to end his eight years than by steering a constitutional amendment on this topic. This country owes this president this little thing. He has done right by everybody. He saved you from a Great Depression. He gave you health care. The least you can give him back is some gun sanity. You owe him one. It is payback time.


Sunday, July 26, 2015

The 4%

speaking at CPAC in Washington D.C. on Februar...
speaking at CPAC in Washington D.C. on February 10, 2011. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
First Donald Trump started going after Mexicans (and never stopped). Then Jeb Bush said people should work longer hours if they want more money. Now Hillary said something about black guys in hoodies (like Mark Zuckerberg?) being scary.

This is not a good sign. The leading people running to be America's next President don't feel it is possible to take America back to a 4% growth rate. They are feeling the squeeze. The problem is nothing new. It all goes back to 2008.

Economists did not see the Great Recession coming. And once it hit, they did not have remedies. You can't keep at zero interest rates. Because if another recession hits, you have nothing left to throw at it.

My diagnosis back in 2008 was, just like the Great Depression added macroeconomics to the arsenal, before that there was only microeconomics, now was the time to add a new layer on the top, called globoeconomics. Did not happen.

A genuine world government is the only cure to Climate Change, and terrorism, the two big menaces most heads of state fumble around. Add to that poverty and disease. But that might also make way for the globoeconomics.

Here's just one symptom: money is not supposed to just sit around. It is supposed to get invested and give returns of 5-10%.

Tax havens: Super-rich 'hiding' at least $21tn
A global super-rich elite had at least $21 trillion (£13tn) hidden in secret tax havens by the end of 2010, according to a major study....... The figure is equivalent to the size of the US and Japanese economies combined....... his $21tn is actually a conservative figure and the true scale could be $32tn. A trillion is 1,000 billion. ....... His study deals only with financial wealth deposited in bank and investment accounts, and not other assets such as property and yachts. ..... the super-rich move money around the globe through an "industrious bevy of professional enablers in private banking, legal, accounting and investment industries. ...... "The lost tax revenues implied by our estimates is huge. It is large enough to make a significant difference to the finances of many countries. ...... "From another angle, this study is really good news. The world has just located a huge pile of financial wealth that might be called upon to contribute to the solution of our most pressing global problems," he said. ......... the impact on the balance sheets of 139 developing countries of money held in tax havens that is put beyond the reach of local tax authorities. ....... since the 1970s, the richest citizens of these 139 countries had amassed $7.3tn to $9.3tn of "unrecorded offshore wealth" by 2010. ...... Private wealth held offshore represents "a huge black hole in the world economy," Mr Henry said. ....... Mr Whiting, though, urged caution. ...... if tax havens were stuffed with such sizeable amounts, "you would expect the havens to be more conspicuously wealthy than they are". ...... At the end of 2010, the 50 leading private banks alone collectively managed more than $12.1tn in cross-border invested assets for private clients ...... The three private banks handling the most assets offshore are UBS, Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs ...... Less than 100,000 people worldwide own about $9.8tn of the wealth held offshore. ....... it was difficult to detail hidden assets in some individual countries, including the UK, because of restrictions on getting access to data. ..... A spokesman for the Treasury said great strides were being made in cracking down on people hiding assets......He said that in 2011-12 HM Revenue & Customs' High Net Worth Unit secured £200m in additional tax through its compliance work with the very wealthy........ He said that agreements reached with Liechtenstein and Switzerland will bring in £3bn and between £4bn and £7bn respectively.
Wealth doesn't trickle down – it just floods offshore, research reveals
The world's super-rich have taken advantage of lax tax rules to siphon off at least $21 trillion, and possibly as much as $32tn, from their home countries and hide it abroad – a sum larger than the entire American economy. ...... sifting through data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and private sector analysts to construct an alarming picture that shows capital flooding out of countries across the world and disappearing into the cracks in the financial system. ...... Comedian Jimmy Carr became the public face of tax-dodging in the UK earlier this year when it emerged that he had made use of a Cayman Islands-based trust to slash his income tax bill. ...... Despite the professed determination of the G20 group of leading economies to tackle tax secrecy, investors in scores of countries – including the US and the UK – are still able to hide some or all of their assets from the taxman....... large investors usually hold in cash .... "Inequality is much, much worse than official statistics show, but politicians are still relying on trickle-down to transfer wealth to poorer people. ...... for three decades extraordinary wealth has been cascading into the offshore accounts of a tiny number of super-rich." ...... 10 million individuals around the world hold assets offshore, according to Henry's analysis; but almost half of the minimum estimate of $21tn – $9.8tn – is owned by just 92,000 people. And that does not include the non-financial assets – art, yachts, mansions in Kensington – that many of the world's movers and shakers like to use as homes for their immense riches. ..... "If we could figure out how to tax all this offshore wealth without killing the proverbial golden goose, or at least entice its owners to reinvest it back home, this sector of the global underground is easily large enough to make a significant contribution to tax justice, investment and paying the costs of global problems like climate change" ........ estimates of the cumulative capital flight from more than 130 low- to middle-income countries over almost 40 years, and the returns their wealthy owners are likely to have made from them. ......

In many cases, , the total worth of these assets far exceeds the value of the overseas debts of the countries they came from.

...... The struggles of the authorities in Egypt to recover the vast sums hidden abroad by Hosni Mubarak, his family and other cronies during his many years in power have provided a striking recent example of the fact that kleptocratic rulers can use their time to amass immense fortunes while many of their citizens are trapped in poverty. ...... Oil-rich Nigeria has seen more than $300bn spirited away since 1970, for example, while Ivory Coast has lost $141bn. ...... Assuming that super-rich investors earn a relatively modest 3% a year on their $21tn, taxing that vast wall of money at 30% would generate a very useful $189bn a year – more than rich economies spend on aid to the rest of the world. ......... standard measures of inequality, which tend to rely on surveys of household income or wealth in individual countries, radically underestimate the true gap between rich and poor. ...... both the very wealthy and the very poor tend to be excluded from mainstream calculations of inequality. ...... "There is rarely a household from the top 1% earners that participates in the survey. On the other side, the poor people either don't have addresses to be selected into the sample, or when selected they misquote their earnings – usually biasing them upwards." ...... Globalisation has exposed low-skilled workers to competition from cheap economies such as China, while the surging profitability of the financial services industry – and the spread of the big bonus culture before the credit crunch – led to what economists have called a "racing away" at the top of the income scale. ....... The surveys that are used to compile the Gini coefficient "simply don't touch the super-rich" ..... some experts believe the amount of assets being held offshore is so large that accounting for it fully would radically alter the balance of financial power between countries. .......... "the wealth held in tax havens is probably sufficiently substantial to turn Europe into a very large net creditor with respect to the rest of the world." ........ In other words, even a solution to the eurozone's seemingly endless sovereign debt crisis might be within reach – if only Europe's governments could get a grip on the wallets of their own wealthiest citizens.
IMF Report



Solar is almost there. I think we are at the cusp of solving the energy crisis. Which means, we should be able to bring forth another era of high growth rates across the world. But a new global layer in politics and economics has to be imagined for that to happen.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Political Benefits For Obama From A Syria Strike

Official photographic portrait of US President...
Official photographic portrait of US President Barack Obama (born 4 August 1961; assumed office 20 January 2009) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
(1) Greatness

You liberate people, you enter the greatness department as president.

(2) Avoid Being A Lame Duck

An Obama who pushed out Assad will be a stronger Obama in domestic politics. He will still be able to do things all the way to 2016. In short, a strike on Syria makes immigration reform more possible, for example.

(3) Help The Economy

World War II got America out of the Great Depression. Bringing democracy to Syria, Iran and Russia will bring the unemployment rate in America down to around 5%.

(4) Clarity Of Purpose

I was Barack Obama's first full time volunteer in New York City. I am talking early 2007. To me the case for a military strike on Syria is as clear as the case for Obama was back then.
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Friday, November 02, 2012

President Barack Obama: My vision for America

President Barack Obama: My vision for America



For the past few days, all of us have been properly focused on one of the worst storms of our lifetimes. We mourn those who were lost. And we pledge to stand with those whose lives have been turned upside down for as long as it takes them to recover and rebuild.

Because when hardship hits, America is at its best. The petty differences that consume us in normal times quickly melt away. There are no Democrats or Republicans during a storm -- only fellow Americans. That's how we get through the most trying times: together.

Four years ago, we were mired in two wars and the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Together, we've battled our way back. The war in Iraq is over, Osama bin Laden is dead, and our heroes are coming home. Our businesses have created more than 5 million new jobs in the last two and half years. Home values and 401(k)s are rising. We are less dependent on foreign oil than at any time in the last 20 years. And the American auto industry is back.

We're not there yet. But we've made real progress. And on Tuesday, America will get to choose between two fundamentally different visions of what makes America strong.

I believe America's prosperity was built on the strength of our middle class. We don't succeed when a few at the top do well while everyone else struggles to get by -- we're better off when everyone gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share, and everyone plays by the same rules.

When Bill Clinton was president, he believed that if America invested in the skills and ideas of its people, good jobs and businesses would follow. His economic plan asked the wealthiest Americans to pay a little more so we could reduce our deficit and still invest in job training and education, research and technology, better health care and a dignified retirement. And what happened? By the end of his second term, our economy created 23 million new jobs. Incomes rose. Poverty fell. Deficits became the biggest surplus in history.

The path Governor Romney offers is the one we tried for eight years after President Clinton left office -- a philosophy that says those at the very top get to play by a very different set of rules than everyone else. Bigger tax cuts for the wealthy that we can't afford. Encouraging companies to ship jobs and profits overseas. Fewer rules for big banks and insurance companies. They're the policies that caused this mess in the first place.

In the closing weeks of this campaign, Governor Romney has started calling himself an agent of change. And I'll give him one thing -- offering another $5 trillion tax cut weighted towards the wealthy, $2 trillion in defense spending our military didn't ask for, and more power for big banks and insurance companies is change, all right. But it's not the change we need.

We know what real change looks like. And we can't give up on it now.

Change is an America where people of every age have the skills and education that good jobs require. We took on banks that had been overcharging for student loans for decades, and made college more affordable for millions. Now we'll recruit 100,000 math and science teachers so that high-tech, high-wage jobs don't end up in China, and train 2 million workers at community colleges for the skills local businesses need right now.

Change is an America that's home to the next generation of manufacturing and innovation. I'm not the candidate who said we should "let Detroit go bankrupt," I'm the president who bet on American workers and American ingenuity. Now I want a tax code that stops rewarding companies that ship jobs overseas, and starts rewarding companies that create jobs here; one that stops subsidizing oil company profits, and keeps supporting clean energy jobs and technology that will cut our oil imports in half.

Change is an America that turns the page on a decade of war to do some nation-building here at home. So long as I'm commander-in-chief, we'll pursue our enemies with the strongest military in the world. But it's time to use the savings from ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to pay down our debt and rebuild America -- our roads and bridges and schools.

Change is an America where we reduce our deficit by cutting spending where we can, and asking the wealthiest Americans to go back to the income tax rates they paid when Bill Clinton was president. I've worked with Republicans to cut a trillion dollars of spending, and I'll do more. I'll work with anyone of any party to move this country forward. But I won't agree to eliminate health insurance for millions of poor, elderly, or disabled on Medicaid, or turn Medicare into a voucher just to pay for another millionaire's tax cut.

The folks at the very top don't need another champion in Washington. The people who need a champion in Washington are the Americans whose letters I read at night; the men and women I meet on the trail every day. The cooks and cleaning staff working overtime at a Las Vegas hotel. The furniture worker retraining for a career in biotechnology at age 55. The teacher who's forced to spend less time with each student in her crowded classroom. Her kids, who dream of becoming something great. Every small business owner trying to expand and do right by his or her employees -- all of these Americans need a champion in Washington.

When these Americans do well, America does well. That's the change we need right now. It's time to finish what we've started -- to educate our kids, train our workers, create new jobs, new energy, and new opportunity -- to make sure that no matter who you are, where you come from, or how you started out, this is the country where you can make it if you try.

The America we believe in is within our reach. The future we hope for is within our sights. That's why I'm asking for your vote this Tuesday.




Mitt Romney: My vision for America



On June 2, 2011, I began my quest for the presidency on the farm of Doug and Stella Scamman in Stratham, New Hampshire. I said then that our country is a land of freedom and opportunity. I spoke of the hard work of the millions of Americans who built our remarkable experiment in self-government. They carved out of the wilderness a land of immense prosperity and unlimited potential. I said then that "I believe in America." For more than a year now, I've carried that message across America. As we draw close to Election Day, it is a good moment to reflect on what it means to believe in America.

America is a place where freedom rings. It is a place where we can discuss our differences without fear of any consequence worse than criticism, where we can believe in whatever creed or religion we choose, where we can pursue our dreams no matter how small or grand. It is a place that not only cherishes freedom, but is willing to fight to defend it. These are the qualities that define us.

America is a land of opportunity. But lately, for too many Americans, opportunity has not exactly come knocking. We've been mired in an economic slowdown that has left millions of our fellow citizens unemployed. The consequences in dreams shattered, lives disrupted, plans deferred, and hopes dimmed can be found all around us.

It hasn't always been this way. It certainly doesn't have to be this way in the future. We're all in this together. And together we can emerge from these troubles.

Together with Paul Ryan, I've put forward an economic recovery plan consisting of five central elements that will in four years create 12 million jobs.

We will produce more of the energy we need to heat our homes, fill our cars, and make our economy grow. We will stop President Obama's war on coal, his disdain for oil, and his effort to crimp natural gas by federal regulation of the very technology that produces it. We will support nuclear and renewables, but phase out subsidies once an industry is on its feet. We will invest in energy science and research to make discoveries that can actually change our energy world. By 2020, we will achieve North American energy independence.

We will retrain our work force for the jobs of tomorrow and ensure that every child receives a quality education no matter where they live, including especially our inner cities. Parents and students, not administrators and unions, need to have greater choice. Our current worker retraining system is a labyrinth of federal programs that sprawls across 47 programs and nine agencies. We will eliminate this redundancy and empower the 50 states and the private sector to develop effective programs of their own.

We will make trade work for America. We'll open more markets to American agriculture, products, and services. And we will finally hold accountable any nation that doesn't play by the rules. I will stand up for the rights and interests of American workers and employers.

Your turn: What's your vision for America? We will restore fiscal sanity to Washington by bringing an end to the federal spending and borrowing binge that in just four years has added more debt held by the public than almost all previous administrations combined. We will put America on track to a balanced budget by eliminating unnecessary programs, by sending programs back to states where they can be managed with less abuse and less cost, and by shrinking the bureaucracy of Washington.

· Finally, we will champion small business, the great engine of job creation in our country, by reforming the tax code and updating and reshaping regulations that have suffocated economic growth.

Nothing is ever easy in Washington, but these goals are rooted in bipartisan agreement, and I will work with members of both parties to accomplish them. As governor of a state that was overwhelmingly Democratic, I was always ready to reach across the aisle and I can proudly point to the results. I've learned that when we come together to solve problems in a practical spirit, we can accomplish miracles. In this respect, I am offering a contrast to what we are seeing in Washington today. We've watched as one party has pushed through its agenda without compromising with the other party. We've watched gridlock and petty conflict dominate while the most important issues confronting the nation, like chronic high unemployment, go unaddressed. The bickering has to end. I will end it. I will reach across the aisle to solve America's problems.

Our economic crisis not only threatens the well-being of our citizenry, it has larger consequences in other realms. The economic weakness of the past several years has, alarmingly, fostered weakness in our foreign policy posture. Runaway domestic spending has led the president to propose reducing defense spending by hundreds of billions, cuts that his own secretary of defense has said would "devastate" our national security.

The most important task for any president is set out in the preamble to our Constitution—providing for the common defense. As commander-in-chief, I will roll back the president's deep and arbitrary cuts to our military. Our soldiers should never lack the tools they need to complete their mission and come home safely. I have always believed that the first purpose of a strong military is to prevent war. And preventing war is a supreme national interest. I will ensure that our military is strong enough that no adversary dares to challenge us.

Let us remember our history. We have accomplished so much, both in the world and at home. We've defeated tyrannies. We've lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty. We've transformed our own society into a more perfect union. We've created a land of freedom and prosperity. The problems we need to overcome now are not bigger than we are. We can defeat them. I am offering real change and a real choice.

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