Showing posts with label arvind kejriwal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label arvind kejriwal. Show all posts

Friday, January 01, 2016

केजरीवाल, मोदी और दिल्ली

केजरीवाल जब पहली बार दिल्ली का मुख्य मंत्री बने उससे पहले मेरे राडार पर वो नहीं थे। लेकिन जब वो आए, I have to admit, it was a breath of fresh air. ये जो दुसरी बार जिते हैं, तो क्लियर मैंडेट है। स्मार्ट हैं, मेहनती हैं, साधारण पृष्ठभूमि के हैं, एक क्लीन इमेज है। दिल्ली के लिए एजेंडा भी अच्छा है।

लेकिन वो बार बार शिकायत करते आए हैं कि मैंने चुनाव जिता लेकिन मोदी काम नहीं करने दे रहे हैं। तो I have taken that with a grain of salt. मोदी के rear view mirror में केजरीवाल दिखते होंगे ऐसा नहीं लगता। एक बात होता है कि बड़ा आदमी से लफड़ा लो और अपना कद बढ़ाओ। Which is cheap.

तथ्य आखिर है क्या? मोदी तंग कर रहे हैं। ये बात मेरे को मानने को मन नहीं कर रहा था। या तो मोदी का मेरा जो इमेज है गलत है या वो केजरी को तंग नहीं कर रहे। तो बात क्या है आखिर?

तो आज मेरे को जवाब मिल गया। नया साल मुबारक। मोदी को भी केजरी को भी।


मेरे समझ में यहाँ क्या हो रहा है कि मोदी केजरी को तंग नहीं कर रहे। हो ये रहा है कि केजरी ये नहीं समझ रहे कि दिल्ली के पास statehood नहीं है। दिल्ली तो केंद्र शासित क्षेत्र है। तो केंद्र सरकार का मैंडेट तो मोदी को मिला हुवा है। पटना में नीतिश जो हैं या लखनऊ में अखिलेश दिल्ली में केजरी वो नहीं हैं।

दिल्ली को राज्य का दर्जा मिलना चाहिए कि नहीं? मिलना चाहिए तो रोडमैप क्या है?  वो तो बाद की बात है। या तो केजरी को एक रोडमैप प्रस्तुत करना होगा। कि मैं मानता हुँ दिल्ली को राज्य का दर्जा मिलना चाहिए और उसका नेतृत्व मैं करूँगा। तो वो एक रास्ता हुवा। दिल्ली के राज्य के दर्जा के बारे में मेरे को मालुम नहीं। मैंने अध्ययन नहीं किया है।  तो मैं मुद्दे पर न्यूट्रल भी हुँ और अगर केजरी ये बीड़ा उठाना चाहें तो रोडमैप क्या हो सकता है उस पर मैं आर्यभट का शुन्य हुँ। I don't know.

लेकिन अभी तक जो हल्ला करते आए हैं केजरी ये मोदी के प्रति unfair है और केजरी को अपरिपक्व दिखाता है। मोदी का केजरी के साथ न कोई पर्सनालिटी क्लैश है न कोई प्रतिस्प्रधा है। And it would be out of character for Modi to harass Kejri. मेरे समझ में हो क्या रहा है कि केजरी ये नहीं समझ रहे हैं कि दिल्ली केजरी शासित क्षेत्र नहीं है, संविधान जैसा बतला रहा है। दिल्ली केंद्र शासित क्षेत्र है। तो अपना jurisdiction समझने का प्रयास करें। मोदी ट्विटर पर जा के रोना धोना करें कि देखो इतना बड़ा मैंडेट ले के आया मैं लेकिन सी जिनपिंग मेरे को चिनिया सेना का बागडोर सम्हालने नहीं दे रहा है तो कैसा लगेगा? अरे यार चीन आप का jurisdiction नहीं।

कुछ होता है ग्रे जोन। ये केजरी के क्षेत्राधिकार में है कि केंद्र के स्पष्ट नहीं होता। तो वहाँ दोनों प्रतिस्प्रधा करेंगे कि मेरा है मेरा है, वो तो स्वाभाविक है।

केजरी को एक प्रॉपर चीफ मिनिस्टर बनना है तो जाओ पंजाब जाओ। सुनते हैं वहां भी आप का अच्छा है। या दिल्ली को राज्य का दर्जा दिलाने का रोडमैप लाओ और जनता के पास जाओ। बीजेपी ने तो स्पष्ट कह ही दिया नहीं। कि हम नहीं चाहते दिल्ली अलग राज्य हो।

सबसे प्रमुख बात है मोदी पर बार बार जो घटिया और बहुत ही पर्सनल किस्म के अटैक जो हो रहे हैं उससे भारत के छवि पर असर पर रहा है। मैंने हाल ही में वाशिंगटन पोस्ट में एक आर्टिकल पढ़ा जिसमें केजरी को क्वोट किया गया है, कि मोदी psychopath हैं। ये तो लोकतंत्र की भाषा नहीं। भारत के छवि पर असर पड़ता है। और वैसे भी मोदी की कोई गलती मैं देख नहीं रहा। CBI ने खुद एक्शन लिया। गलत लिया तो वकील हायर करो। राजनीतिक मुद्दा है तो राजनीतिक भाषा बोलो।

Kejriwal is promising, but he should not punch above his weight, especially in unfair ways. और वैसे भी economic growth के मुद्दे पर केजरी कुछ नहीं मोदी के सामने। न विज़न देख रहा हुँ न एक्शन।


Wednesday, December 23, 2015

NDA GA Bipolarization: 30, 20, 50: What India Needs

The original version of General Electric's cir...
The original version of General Electric's circular logo and trademark. The trademark application was filed on July 24, 1899, and registered on September 18, 1900 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
थर्ड फ्रंट तो था ही नहीं। २०१४ में। और राहुल भी उम्मेदवार नहीं थे। सोनिया ने सक्रिय पहल किया। तो बीजेपी को ३०% और काँग्रेस को मिला २०% ---- और दुर दुर तक कोसो तक एक सफ़ेद धुँवा है फैला हुवा जहाँ ५०% मत बिखरे पड़े हैं। वो थर्ड फ्रंट नहीं है। इसी लिए मैंने कहा देशकी राजनीती एक कॉमेट की तरह है। न unipolar, न bipolar, न multipolar. सफेद धुँवा फैला हुवा है। इससे देश को घाटा है। देश के के हित में है कि एक bipolarization हो जाए। लोकतंत्र को अर्थतंत्र को ये चाहिए।

CBI ने जो रेड किया केजरीवाल के ऑफिस में ये तो बहुत बड़ी बात हो गयी। खबर मिल रहा है कि मोदी ने नहीं करवाया। तो ये क्या हुवा? ये तो एक कु हो गया। इससे पहले जिस सक्स को सीबीआई ने तंग किया वो आज प्रधान मंत्री है। उससे पहले जभी लालु को तंग किए। कुछ समय बाद अंक गणित लालु के पक्ष में आ गयी थी। Waste कर दिया गया।

General Electric कंपनी में है १० साल में लीडरशिप चेंज होता है। तो एक प्रक्रिया है एक रश्म है। भारत में कहा जाता है CBI संसद के अधीन है, पाकिस्तान में ISI पैरेलल गवर्नमेंट के तरह है। कहीं भारत में भी वो समस्या तो नहीं। CBI में कोई सेल है जो data crunching करती है और निर्णय करती है अगला बन्दा ये है। बहुत ही गलत बात है। You can't second guess the people like that. Especially, you can't act upon it to try and influence the democratic process.

Grand Alliance की बात शुरू हुवी है बिहार से। वो बात बिहार से बाहर जाती है कि नहीं वो अभी देखना बाँकी है।

सारे देश के सभी चुनाव पाँच साल में एक बार किए जाने की बात हो रही है। वो गलत होगी। लेकिन पाँच साल में दो बार हो तो शायद सही है। केंद्र, राज्य और स्थानीय। ढाई साल में एक ऐतवार को। बुथ पर जाना है।



Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Kejriwal And Modi: Not On The Same Plank

I was unhappy when Kejriwal tweeted his attack on Modi calling him names. It was not only not the language of a mature democracy, it also sounded inaccurate. He made it sound like Modi had personally directed the raid. I have not read up on the raid, it's not worth my time. If you feel the CBI has wronged you, go get a lawyer. Manmohan Singh did after he got out of office and was subjected to some kind of inquiry. He asked the court to dismiss it, and the court did. Not that Kejriwal is Manmohan Singh.

Such a comment mars India's image that Modi has worked so hard to cultivate ever since he got into office. He had a purpose. India has beat both China and the United States on FDI this year. Is that something, or is that something? Itna bejod kaam ho raha hai. Thos kaam ho raha hai. 

Kejriwal likes to imagine there is some kind of a personality clash going on between Modi and him: not true. There is no evidence. Yaar, size to dekho. Delhi ka size kya hai?

Kejriwal has a mandate. The mandate is to govern. To govern karo. Kaam karo. Apna political height badhane ke prayas mein desh ke PM ko gaali mat bolo.

Agar Modi mein rajnitik sujhbujh hai to wo aisa raid nahin karvayenge. That is yet another reason to believe he was not personally behind it. Because, it doesn't make any political sense. Bahut ghaate ki baat hai. 

Within minutes of the CBI raid on the Delhi secretariat on 15 December, top government functionaries — those sitting in North Block and South Block — spoke with one another to find out whether the raid had the prior approval of any of them. None of them had any inkling....... Prime Minister Narendra Modi displayed ignorance while Home Minister Rajnath Singh was not in the loop either. The Ministry of Home Affairs asked CBI director Anil Sinha and he justified the raids on procedural and legal grounds.......The collateral damage from the raids was colossal in political terms........ The carefully cultivated image of Modi as a leader who believes in the consensual approach lay shattered as the Opposition attacked his government for being “vindictive” against rivals. As expected, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal used this opportunity to launch one of the worst vituperative attacks on the prime minister and subsequently on Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.


DDCA row: Narendra Modi gets furious when he hears my name, says Arvind Kejriwal
During the session, Kejriwal accused the PM of “unleashing” the CBI on the government and said the recent raid on his principal secretary’s office was an “attack on the federal structure of democracy”.
The PM ordered this raid to protect Jaitley,” alleged Kejriwal ..... Questioning the independence of the CBI as an investigative body, Kejriwal said, “The day CBI becomes independent, it will send a notice to Shivraj Chouhan. It will send a notice to Modi to ask him about the money he got for his coat. Sushma and Vasundhara Raje will get notices, not Rajendra Kumar…” ...... Defending Kumar, Kejriwal said, “Hamare afsar ke locker khali mile aur 12 daaru ki bottles mili. Is world ki sabse badi democracy ke PM raid karwaye aur 12 bottles liquor mile to sharm ki baat hai…(The head of the world’s biggest democracy ordered a raid and only found 12 liquor bottles. This is shameful).” ..... Kejriwal also took a dig at the PM’s foreign trips. “He has nothing to do with the country. He has a big plane with all facilities and stays in five-star hotels… Everything runs smoothly when he is out of the country. The day he returns, the CBI is unleashed on the opposition…,” he said. ..... He also welcomed the defamation case filed by Jaitley against him and his partymen. “We will go to Patiala House on February 5… We will give our explanation and the trial will begin. Jaitley will stand in the witness box and our advocate will cross-examine him. This will go on for a year. They have harmed themselves,” said Kejriwal. ..... The DDCA… deals with sports which is under us,” said Kejriwal.
Target 2019: Kejriwal’s anti-Modi moves are rooted in his ambition
the Delhi chief minister has realised that the space for an anti-establishment leader has started growing again in India. And he is making fast and furious moves to occupy the slot before anyone else becomes the pivot of the anti-BJP politics that could become a rewarding pursuit by 2019. ..... The economy has come to a standstill. Growth forecasts have become sobre and sombre: the latest estimate has been revised downwards to 7-7.5 percent from the previous 8.1-8.5 percent. Reforms are stuck, legislative bills are caught in politics of hostility, jobs are not rising, prices — not the ones reflected on indices of data crunchers but on grocery lists of real people — are going through the roof. There is a general atmosphere of hostility and distrust. Promises of achche din have become a painful memory ..... within a year, unless something dramatic happens, a string of electoral results could change the mood on the ground dramatically. .... The party never had a realistic chance in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where elections are due next .... In Punjab, the Akali Dal-BJP alliance is facing stiff challenge after ten years of incumbency. ....... the ruling alliance is staring at a drubbing in Punjab that could be more severe than the beating in Delhi. ..... Where is the party winning next? Perhaps Assam, but every other state election appears a tough challenge. ..... For the past few days, Kejriwal has been relentlessly attacking the PM and his finance minister with the hope of becoming the leading anti-Modi voice in the country. By punching well above his weight, just like Modi did as chief minister of Gujarat, he is hoping to become the symbol of anti-establishment by the time the next election is around. ...... Kejriwal can progress in politics only if he wins Punjab, or at least puts up a strong show. It doesn't look easy. ..... In Punjab, Kejriwal is facing the challenge of warding off the might of former chief minister and Congress leader Captain Amarinder Singh. The mood on the ground suggests voters are torn between AAP and a resurgent Congress under Singh. Both have equal chances of replacing the SAD-BJP government. ..... Aware of the challenge and the opportunity, Kejriwal is planning to camp in Punjab for almost six months before the elections, leaving Delhi to his deputy Manish Sisodia. If he wins Punjab, demolishes the Badals and pins down Singh, Kejriwal will immediately fancy himself as a challenger to Modi...... Kejriwal's rise, if it happens, won't be a tragic development for the BJP. It will immediately bring his ambition into conflict with that of Rahul Gandhi, Mulayam Singh,

Nitish Kumar — the current frontrunner —

and other regional aspirants, immediately putting under strain the current index of opposition unity, the biggest threat to Modi after anti-incumbency......

Does this explain the BJP's current eagerness to provoke Kejriwal?

Whenever My Name Is Taken, PM Modi's Blood Boils: Arvind Kejriwal
Speaking at the Delhi assembly as his battle with the Centre reaches a new low, Mr Kejriwal added, "BJP leaders have told me in private, whenever my name is taken, (PM Narendra) Modi's blood boils." ..... Calling the raids a "flop", Mr Kejriwal today said the CBI questioned his principal secretary Rajender Kumar for over 50 hours after 14-hour long raids. "But they have found nothing... The raid was aimed only at helping Arun Jaitley," he said. "What the PM did is quite shameful," he said. ..... Taking the charges head-on, Mr Kejriwal said, "What remains to be seen is that whether the inquiry commission will be annulled by the L-G, who Jaitley says is 'our man'... I appeal to Jaitleyji to cooperate with the inquiry commission."


Monday, March 16, 2015

Trying Hard To Understand The Nitish Viewpoint On Land Acquisition


Nitish is opposing the land acquisition bill tooth and nail. So is Kejriwal. वैसा क्या है उसमें? I will be the first to admit I have not studied all the details of the bill. But this might be the first time when I am no longer putting Modi and Nitish/Kejri on equal pedestal. I am siding with Modi on this one.

Industry और infrastructure के लिए जमीन चाहिए। भारतको First World Country बनाना है कि नहीं? मोदीको judge करने का मेरा standard high है ---- यदि वो देशको डबल डिजिट growth रेट देते हैं तो पास नहीं तो मेरे हिसाब से फेल। तो it is so obvious to me that he needs to get the land acquisition bill passed if he is to take India to double digit growth rates.

मैं तो नितीश का फैन हुँ but he is losing me on this one.

एक ये हो सकता है कि किसान खेतीपाती नहीं करेंगे तो क्या करेंगे? उसी किसान के खेत तक सिंचाई पहुँचाने के लिए ही तो land acquisition bill चाहिए। The land acquisition bill is not just about industrialization. Infrastructure तो किसानों को भी चाहिए। किसान तो खेती करेंगे, लेकिन उसी किसान के संतान के लिए फैक्ट्री में जॉब चाहिए कि नहीं तो फैक्ट्री बैठाने के लिए जमीन चाहिए कि नहीं? मोदी चायवाला --- गरीबका अहित क्युँ सोंचेगा?

एक ये हो सकता है। रोड और सिंचाई से भी जरुरी है गाओं गाओं तक ब्रॉडबैंड पहुँचाना। ताकि लोग खेती से सर्विस सेक्टर कि ओर transition कर सकें --- तो मोदी वो भी तो कर रहे हैं। नहीं?


Sunday, March 08, 2015

The Infighting In AAP, JD(U), And RJD

The infighting in AAP, JD(U) and RJD (Kejri/Yadav, Nitish/Jitan, Laloo/Pappu) is a sign Modi just might take control of the state governments in both Bihar and UP.

AAP could have given serious competition to the BJP in UP. If it had not gone down with its infighting.

Bihar needs industrialization more than any other state, but Nitish is fighting Modi's land acquisition bill tooth and nail: makes no sense.

If the BJP takes Bihar, I guess Sushil Modi gets to be Chief Minister. I don't know of any obvious face for the BJP in UP. But that should not be a problem. They are a cadre driven party. They have swelling ranks. I had never come across the names of the BJP's three or four newest Chief Ministers.


Monday, February 16, 2015

AAP Will Emerge The Second Largest Party In 2019

The Aam Aadmi Party's spectacular victory in Delhi was way better than even their own best predictions. It was obvious they would win, but their margin of victory has been surprising. There is no question now that Kejriwal will stay Chief Minister for the next five years, likely 10, make that nine. And he has to perform. He has to deliver. Protest to sab karte hain. Deliver karo. 

And it is a good thing that AAP is thinking in terms of contesting state elections far and wide. The BJP has become the new Congress, the new natural party in power. But the Opposition space lies vacant. AAP is best positioned to grow into that space.

The Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, for example, is just the UP version of Laloo Yadav. Laloo challenged caste dynamics, and kudos to him, but there was zero deliverance on governance. Agar usi Mulayam ko Nitish apna neta mante hain to Opposition space mein ane ke liye the so-called Janata Parivar bhi right mindset mein nahin hai. 

That leaves AAP to fill up the space. And that is a good thing. AAP has the potential to also spill over into the neighboring countries. AAP doing good work makes democracy an export item for India. That is just so wonderful. Why only Bollywood? Also export AAP.

Nitish will do well in Bihar. But his national options have been curtailed by his reliance on tired faces like Mulayam.

Modi has been doing good work, and I think he will be rewarded accordingly in 2019. The BJP might go for a one party government at the center after the 2019 elections. Might as well. But maybe in 2024 it will be Kejriwal's turn to take the helm. Don't underestimate the power of a common man.

Dono bania, dono halwai.

The Opposition Party has to be a party that is ready to take power. That is not the Congress, and that is not Mulayam's Janata Parivar. Independence ke momentum ne Congress ko 40-50 sal diye. Uska baad Mandal politics aya. Ab kamandal+development politics chal raha hai. Uske baad common man ki baari ayegi. 

AAP's landslide victory in Delhi: ET examines the party's future prospects in 10 states
Instead of the scattershot approach which it adopted in the Lok Sabha election, AAP now wants to be methodical in its expansion. The Delhi win changes little on the ground in most states; the strategy to build ground-up had begun in June 2014, one of its main objectives being to beef up units across the country. ...... it is only a question of time before the party becomes a national political alternative, but it will have to first deliver in Delhi. Never mind that some of its prominent faces in the rest of the country think the iron is hot enough. ...... it needs to do what it did so effectively in Delhi: engage with the electorate long before an election through initiatives like 'Delhi Dialogue', which Sanyal calls a "game-changer" for the party.

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

The Indian Democracy Is Working



The near total sweep by Kejriwal in Delhi is a sign that the Indian democracy is working. That same electorate gave a clean sweep to Modi in the national elections last year. That is a mature electorate that knows the difference between the national government and the state government.

Kejriwal swept Delhi. And news is India now has become the fastest growing economy on the planet. Thank you, Modi.

Right now I feel like Nitish will do well in Bihar later this year. The BJP, just like in Delhi, does not have a clear Chief Minister candiate. Who?

I hope Nitish comes back with a major mandate, because he has done more for Bihar than anyone since independence. Bihar could use him for 10 more years.

Saturday, January 31, 2015

केजरीवाल PM बन सकते हैं

मोदी और नीतिश एक ही जेनेरेशन के हैं। तो मोदी बाजी मार ले गए। और वो काम अच्छा कर रहे हैं। अभी तो लगता है १० साल तो कुर्सी पर बैठे रहेंगे ही।

लेकिन केजरीवाल उसके बादवाली जेनेरेशन से हैं। मान लो मोदी १५ साल गद्दी पर बैठे रहते हैं। तो उसके बाद कौन? बीजेपी के पास अच्छे अच्छे मुख्य मंत्री हैं, नहीं है ऐसी बात नहीं। लेकिन कोइ एक पार्टी १५ साल शासन करने के बाद थक सी जाती है। तो केजरीवालको मौका मिल सकता है। लेकिन उसके लिए उनको १० साल मुख्य मंत्री बनके, अच्छा काम करके दिखाना होगा।

नीतिश अगर चुनाव जित जाते हैं तो शायद वो १० साल तक मुख्य मंत्री बने रहे।

केजरीवाल मगर PM बन सकते हैं। नीतिश शायद उस दौर में नही हैं।

लेकिन दो साल पहले केजरीवाल कौन थे? अपरिचित थे। १०-१५ सालमें नए नए चेहरे उभरके नहीं आ सकते हैं ऐसी बात नहीं है।


प्रधान मंत्री जन धन आयोजना और Microfinance

मोदीने जो किया है वो एक क्रांतिकारी कदम है। अब लगभग सभी भारतीय परिवारोंके पास बैंक खाता है। संपत्ति सोने के रूपमें मत रखो, बैंक खातेमें पैसा जमा करो -- वो सन्देश है। बहुत बड़ी बात है ये। देशकी कायापलट कर देगी। Domestic Capital Markets के लिए इतना बड़ा काम भारतमें पिछले हजार सालमें नहीं हुए। चार महिनेमें कर दिखाया।

मोदीने गुजरातमें जो काम किया विकासके लिए उसका मैं सदैव प्रशंसक रहा। और २००२ दंगे जो कि एक बहुत बड़ी ट्रेजेडी थी, उसके लिए मैंने भारतके सर्वोच्च अदालतको माना। उस अदालतने निर्णय किया कि मोदी जिम्मेवार नहीं हैं तो नहीं हैं। और वो मेरी अडान चुनाव से पहले की है। लेकिन चुनाव के दरम्यान मैं नीतिश के लिए रूटिंग कर रहा था। सोच्ने वाली बात ये है कि मेरी पैदाइश बिहारकी है। दरभंगा में पैदा हुवा मै। और नीतिश ने बिहारकी कायापलट की। तो उतना तो मेरे को करना ही था। अभी भी मैं उनका प्रशंसक हुँ। लालुका भी मैं प्रशंसक हुँ। लालुके पार्टीके बिहार यूनिट (एक ही तो यूनिट है पार्टीकी) के प्रेसिडेंट रामचन्द्र पुर्वे मेरे मामा लगेंगे। लालु जब मुख्य मंत्री थे तो मेरे मामा उनके शिक्षा मंत्री थे। And Laloo has been the best Railways Minister in India's history. नीतिशने मुख्य मंत्रीके रूपमें और लालुने रेल मंत्रीके रूपमें जादु ही कर दिया। हार्वर्ड यूनिवर्सिटी से लेके बिल गेट्स तक दोनों के फैन हो गए। तो उसकी सराहना तो करनी ही होगी। १,००० साल की caste dynamics को लालु ने चैलेंज किया। छोटीमोटी बात नहीं है।

भारतके वो प्रथम प्रमुख नेता हैं नीतिश जिन्होने मोदीको भविष्यका प्रधान मंत्री बताया। वो मुख्य मंत्री बनने से पहले की बात है। RSS का जो लव जिहाद और घर वापसीका ढकोसला है वो नीतिशको भी अच्छा नहीं लगा तो मोदीको भी नहीं। मोदी तेली तो नीतिश कुर्मी --- दोनों एक ही caste category से हैं। दोनों पिछड़े वर्गसे हैं। दोनों निम्न परिवारसे हैं। दोनों ने मुख्य मंत्रीके रूपमें बहुत अच्छा काम किया।

गौर करनेवाली बात ये है कि २०१४ में प्रधान मंत्री पदके लिए सिर्फ एक आदमी लड़ रहा था। घोषित कैंडिडेट दुसरा कोइ था ही नहीं। राहुल घोषित कैंडिडेट नहीं थे। नीतिश तो थे ही नहीं। एक बार बात ही बात में कह दिया, "मैं कोइ बुरा कैंडिडेट थोरे हुँ," लेकिन वो दौर में नहीं थे। नीतिशका इशारा था एल के आडवाणी की ओर। अभी भी मुलायमकी और इशारा कर रहे हैं। फिर से गलती कर रहे हैं। बडोका आदर करो, लेकिन इतना मत करो कि डेमोक्रेसी गड़बड़ हो जाए।

Maybe it was not a well thought out position by Nitish. Maybe he made a mistake in breaking up with the BJP on the issue of Modi. I don't know. I am not sure. If he had been part of the NDA, he would have been its most important leader after Modi himself. But he let that go.

तो फिर नीतिश ने क्या किया? क्या गलती किया? शायद। लेकिन लोकतंत्रमें उनका लोकतान्त्रिक अधिकार है। वैसे भी वो जनता परिवार पृष्ठभूमिके लोग हैं। जहाँके थे वहाँ चले गए। या अगर प्रधान मंत्री के रेस में थे तो मोदी जित गए। वो हार गए। होता है।

सुशील मोदी कहते हैं, २००५ के बाद बिहार में अच्छा काम हुवा, उसका श्रेय तो मैं भी लुंगा। कोई गलत तर्क नहीं है। बात भारतकी है, लोकतंत्रकी है, विकासकी है, बिहारकी है। सुशील मोदीका कास्ट बैकग्राउंड भी नीतिशके जैसा है। तो मेरेको लगता है प्रतिस्प्रधा कसके होगी।

सारे भारतमें केजरीवाल और नीतिश ही हैं जो मोदीको चैलेंज कर सकते हैं। दिल्लीका चुनाव बिहार के लिए भी मायने रखती है। अगर केजरीवाल चुनाव हार जाते हैं तो नीतिशको बिहारमें दिक्कत है। Bihar is tougher than Delhi. दिल्लीमें केजरीवाल जित भी जाते हैं तो बिहारमें नीतिशको आसान है ऐसी बात नहीं।

लेकिन अगर केजरीवाल और नीतिश दोनों मुख्य मंत्री बन भी जाते हैं तो मोदीको केंद्रमें कोइ खास डिस्टर्ब नहीं होगा। भारतकी लोकतंत्र मजबुत होगी। लोकतंत्रमें बिपक्ष भी कोइ मायने रखती है। अभी तो लग रहा है मोदी कमसेकम १० साल तो प्रधान मंत्री बने ही रहेंगे। काम अच्छा कर रहे हैं।

बात है प्रधान मंत्री जन धन आयोजना की और Microfinance की। एक आधार बन गयी है। देश व्यापी रूपसे Microfinance का विस्तार किया जा सकता है।


Sunday, November 02, 2014

Watch Out For Nitish And Kejriwal

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंस...
हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Right now I think Modi will do 10 years as Prime Minister, easy. I expect him to perform. But India is not China. India is a democracy. And an India that hits double digit growth rates is not an India that will have a weak opposition. The opposition will be vibrant. And the two most promising figures on the horizon are Nitish Kumar and Arvind Kejriwal. I expect both of them to become Chief Ministers again, and I expect them to do well.

With an able PM and a vibrant opposition, India could become the fastest growing economy on earth.

Bihar registers record agriculture growth: Radha Mohan Singh
JD(U) to contest Bihar polls under Nitish Kumar's leadership: Jitan Ram Manjhi

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Could Kejriwal Be PM?


Arvind Kejriwal’s stunning performance in the Delhi elections has changed equations in Indian politics. The new Chief Minister of Delhi was a key organizer for the anti-corruption Anna Hazare movement.

He sounds like Ralph Nader when he says the Congress and the BJP are not different at all. That is what Nader had to say about the Democrats and the Republicans. But Nader stayed a fringe candidate, Kejriwal has managed to capture Delhi, and is talking in terms of fielding candidates in over 300 constituencies for the parliamentary elections, including in every constituency in Gujrat.

It is a foregone conclusion that no party will cross the 200 mark. The Congress might even hit close to 100. The BJP will likely cross 150. For the first time a large space is being created for the non-Congress, non-BJP parties. And there are several aspirants for the top job in that camp.

Jayalalita and Mulayam Singh have been open about it. I think Nitish stands a strong chance. But the Third Front stays a hodgepodge, and if the Aam Aadmi Party managed to field candidates in more than 300 constituencies and managed to win in even 50 of those, it will emerge as the largest among the non-Congress, non-BJP parties.

If somehow Modi manages to get the BJP past the 200 mark, someone like Jayalalita might be happy to become Deputy Prime Minister. But if the BJP might hit 160 and the Congress 100, you can bet the Congress will join the anybody-but-the-BJP bandwagon. Which would mean essentially the BJP at that point would be considered a party with 60 seats, 100 of its seats cancelled out by the Congress.

Could Kejriwal end up with 50 MPs? How about 100? If he manages to cross the 100 mark, he would most certainly be Prime Minister.

Right now Modi and Kejriwal are the only two individuals who have all India campaigns in mind. Jayalalita is focused on Tamilnadu, Nitish is focused on Bihar, Mulayam is focused on Uttar Pradesh. But 50 MPs for Kejriwal, and 200 for Modi are tall orders. The largest of the non-Congress, non-BJP parties tend to get 30 seats.

The situation is fluid. India remains the most fascinating democracy. And YouTube makes it rather easy to follow the flux.

Modi has a good record economically. But Nitish Kumar’s record is better. Modi has a national party. Nitish does not. On the other hand, the BJP, it can be argued, is also a regional party. Nitish has an Eastern Bloc in mind. West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Orissa are looking to gang up. Each of those states have strong Chief Ministers sitting on top of regional parties. That is a bloc of about 100 parliamentary seats.

I think Nitish is betting on a post-election alignment of forces.

Many Indian leaders like to claim the 19th century belonged to Britain, the 20th to America and that the 21st will belong to India. Well, so far America is still in the lead. And it is China that is giving competition. India has not happened yet. There are so many Chief Ministers in India performing well. Gujrat as an economy is bigger and better than most economies in Europe.

There is a strong anti-incumbency wave in the country. Rahul’s chances are slim. There are many leaders fundamentally opposed to Modi, Rahul and Nitish among them. That makes it hard for Modi unless he managed to get the BJP past the 200 mark. A hung parliament is a foregone conclusion. The leader of the largest among the non-Congress, non-BJP parties will stand to make a claim. Who will that be?

What is obvious is that the run up to the elections are going to be very interesting. And the post-poll scenario is also going to be colorful. I don’t think Mulayam or Jayalalita will be it. It is between Nitish and Kejriwal. But then a scenario where Mamata has more MPs than Nitish or Jayalalita more than Kejriwal could also throw up interesting scenarios.

I like to say India is a European Union that is actually working. There is a single currency. More than six decades after independence the country is largely an amalgam of regional parties.

Overall I remain optimistic. I think India is poised to hit close to double digit growth rates. And so all fermentation in the political process is positive. India is proof democracy works. It takes time but it works.

As for Kejriwal, it remains to be seen if he can manage to get his magic in Delhi to hit a nationwide stride. Howard Dean did not become president. Imran Khan did not become Prime Minister. Anna Hazare did not become a politician. And so it is not a foregone conclusion that the Aam Aadmi Party will emerge the third largest. But if it does then Kejriwal stands a strong chance of getting the top job.

Modi Vs Kejriwal
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