Showing posts with label Janata Parivar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Janata Parivar. Show all posts

Sunday, June 21, 2015

JD (U) 80-90, RJD 50-60, Congress/Left 10-20

Defeat BJP worse than in Delhi: CM
Video: Success Story of Bihar - Badh Chala Bihar

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंस...
हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Bihar: The NDA's Turn To Crack?
Princeton University Report On Bihar

At least when Laloo was not sure Nitish was the CM candidate, he had made it clear no one from his family was in the running, and he did not have a candidate in mind, all he was saying was the decision should be taken after the election results, and he was not opposed to Nitish. With Nitish contesting almost all the seats he already has in his kitty, he stands a good chance of retaining most of them. He might even engineer a sweep, and put RJD where the BJP used to be in his alliance. The ball is in the air in Bihar. Right now I am projecting JD (U) at 80-90 seats, and RJD at 50-60 seats and 10-20 seats for others like the Congress and the Left. But those numbers might come down some if the NDA manages to project internal cohesion and unity.

Jaitley's Goods And Services Tax alone should add another two per cent to the country's growth rate. That tax bill is prime recipe for the Dal Se Bada Desh sentiment. There both Nitish and the Congress have to make sense. If India can grow at 10%, it becomes that much easier for Nitish to take Bihar to 15%.

Bihar@2025 = $240 Billion
"They Don't Do Random"
१५% और १०% में फर्क
All Of Bihar Is One Big City
Bihar@2025
India: A 15% Growth Rate Is Possible
Janakpur Patna Kolkata Industrial Corridor
बिहार के लिए फोर्मुला

Cracks appear in Bihar NDA
The RLSP also announced that the party would contest 67 seats and would hold public meetings in 125 constituencies ahead of the elections. Under its seat-sharing formula, the RLSP has allotted 74 seats for Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party and 102 seats for the BJP. The party has ignored the latest entrant into the NDA, former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular).
RJD to cross swords with BJP in saffron strongholds in Bihar polls
Sources in JD(U)-RJD combine said Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s outfit will contest those seats it had won last time when it fought in alliance with BJP. Though RJD is likely to contest about as many seats as JD(U), it will get seats where BJP had won. ...... JD(U) had clinched 112 seats in 2010 Assembly election, BJP 94 and RJD only 22. Lalu will thus have the difficult task on hand contesting seats it had lost last time, while JD(U) will battle to retain those already in its kitty. ....... NDA sources said BJP will field nominees in almost all seats it had won besides some more, leaving anywhere between 55 and 70 seats for its allies like Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP, Upendra Kushwaha-led RLSP and its new partner and former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Aawam Morcha. ...... Almost all the seats the saffron party will spare for its allies are those that had been won by JD(U) last time. ....... The concern for BJP is, however, that Lalu’s core support base of Yadavs and Muslims is bigger and cohesive and has mostly stood by him even in the worst of times. Kumar’s base is relatively small but he believes his track record in governance will win him votes across communities.
BJP's ally declares its chief Upendra Kushwaha as CM candidate in Bihar
Declare Kushwaha NDA's CM face for assembly polls in Bihar: RLSP
BJP's ally Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) on Sunday passed a resolution demanding that its president and union minister Upendra Kushwaha be made NDA's chief ministerial candidate for forthcoming assembly polls in Bihar. ...... The resolution was passed unanimously at the party's two-day state executive meeting at Vaishali Garh near Hajipur, about 30 km north from state capital here, where the party also approved a proposal to contest altogether 67 seats in the assembly election ...... "LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan has withdrawn himself from being candidate for the CM post and our major ally BJP has so far not projected any name as CM face. We don't think that BJP will be able to decide any name in the next three months. Hence, the RLSP decided to offer the name of Kushwaha to be projected as NDA's CM face, because Bihar today needs a 'strong' face to effectively counter the CM candidate of RJD-JD(U)-Congress alliance," Singh said. ...... BJP is yet to decide on a CM candidate with many leaders in the party are of the view that it would be better to go to polls under a collective leadership with PM Narendra Modi's agenda of development. ......... In another resolution passed unanimously, the RLSP said that in the last 2010 assembly polls, the BJP had contested 102 of total 243 assembly seats. And LJP 74 seats. "As per the current political scenario and ground realities, both the parties BJP and LJP should contest same number of seats in 2015 elections and leave the rest 67 seats for the RLSP. It is natural claim of RLSP on the rest 67 seats. Hence the state executive committee unanimously decides to field its candidate on 67 seats in 2015 assembly elections," the resolution reads........ Political analysts say, the BJP, which is yet to finalise its seat-sharing agreement with its allies, is unlikely to concede to the RLSP demand of 67 seats
No dispute in the NDA over a chief ministerial face for Bihar, says Paswan
Exuding confidence that the BJP-led NDA would sweep the upcoming polls with a three-fourth majority, Paswan said the secular alliance and its leaders would be compelled to do 'Yogasana' ....... On the NDA's agenda for electoral success in Bihar, Paswan said the BJP-led coalition would come up with a vision document proposing construction of roads and bridges, and slammed Nitish Kumar for failing to undertake repair of dilapidated bridges on the Ganga in Patna and Mokama.
From wooing foreign investors to UPA bashing: 10 takeaways from Arun Jaitley's US comments
he is in the US "really to be in dialogue with a larger body of investors because the more the investment in India, the more it helps us in our growth process". He participated in a discussion organised by the think tank Council on Foreign Relations. President of investment firm Warburg Pincus and former US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner were also present at the event........ Jaitley said said there are economic reforms in the pipeline which can push the country's economic growth rate above the current 7-7.5 percent range. "Neither the government, nor the people, nor the industry whose representatives, some of whom are here, nobody is very excited about a 7-7.5 percent growth rate in India," Jaitley said during the discussion with Geithner. ......... the next two-three years are going to be very critical for the reforms. “Having covered this distance, the next two-three years are going to be very critical because the series of reform steps, which are in the pipeline, are all to be implemented," he said. ...... The Rajya Sabha has referred the Goods and Services Tax Bill a committee. He said this has shortened the windo of time required for the implementation of the key tax reform. "I now have to run faster to in order to catch up. If nothing unusual happens, hopefully I make it. So I am conscious of the time constraint,” he said. April 2016 is the deadline for the implementation of GST. ...... When asked if more sectors will be opened up for higher stakes of FDI, Jaitley said the government has reviewed FDI “in favour of opening out". "If you would expect these sectoral caps to immediately go up in all sectors, may be not but gradually that is the movement in that direction,” he has been quoted as saying.
Why India needs to be wary of China's ambitious belt and road initiative
China pushing the pet project of its president Xi Jinping -- Belt and Road Initiative, a grandiose $21 trillion project aimed at connecting 4.4 billion people. ...... the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor ....... Much of China’s pledged $46 billion investment in Pakistan is predicated on the CPEC. ...... Ask the Sri Lankans for example! Wherever Beijing has landed it has left a trail of loans and grants with high interest rates. Sri Lanka today owes a debt of anywhere up to six to eight billion US dollars to China for Chinese involvement in infrastructure projects on it soil. ....... Perhaps a fundamental question is who is going to need these new transportation networks the Chinese are proposing as most goods travel around the globe via the cheaper and logistically simpler sea route rather than rail or air transport. ....... Yes, rail route would cut down by half the time taken by sea transport but the question is how such an international rail network would be put in place considering different gauge systems, financial costs and an unstable security environment, to name a few.
Greater trade and people to people contact between Pakistan and China is a good thing. It will pave the way for eventually doing the same between India and Pakistan.


Saturday, May 23, 2015

World, India, Bihar

India is the most interesting democracy in the world, and Bihar is the most interesting democracy in India. इतना ज्यादा उठापटक! :)

 

Pappu Yadav pitches for Third Front in Bihar
Is Nitish Kumar working on a new Bihar poll strategy that excludes Laloo and Mulayam?
Lalu Prasad Yadav pushes anti-BJP front in Bihar, Nitish skips meet
ABP News Opinion Poll: The mood in Bihar
Modi warns against caste politics in Bihar



बीजेपी के लिए बिहार और उत्तर प्रदेश बहुत महत्त्व रखता है। दोनों जगह वो लोग संभावना देख रहे हैं। पश्चिम बंगाल, उड़ीसा, तमिलनाडु जैसे जगहों पे तो वहाँ के लोकल पार्टी जम के बैठे हुवे हैं। वहां बीजेपी को कोइ opening नहीं दिखाइ दे रही है। २०१७ में बीजेपी वाले UP तो बिलकुल स्वीप करेंगे। बिहार में 100-100-45 फोर्मुला पर परिवार वाले लड़ते तो 50-50 chance था। लेकिन परिवार में जो soap opera चल रहा है उससे बीजेपी का पलड़ा भारी पड़ गया है। शायद नीतिश ने तीन गलतियां की: (१) बीजेपी से नाता तोडा (२) मुख्य मंत्री पद से इस्तीफा दिया (३) मुलायम को नेता माना, थके हुवे Zero Development Man को।

लालु का strength था पप्पु ----- रोम पोप का मधेपुरा गोप का। मधेपुरा तो पप्पु का है। नीतिश को महादलित वोट चाहिए थी। संख्या काफी है महादलितों की। ये नहीं की वो सबके सब जीतन के साथ हो लिए, लेकिन काफी fracturing तो जरूर हुवा है।

Advantage Sushil Modi.

राज्य सभा के अंक गणित को मैं नहीं समझ पा रहा हुँ। बिहार और उत्तर प्रदेश बीजेपी के झोली में आ भी जाए तो राज्य सभा में उनको बहुमत मिल्ने में काफी समय लगेगी। They have no choice but to try and work with people like Patnaik and Jayalalitha. Even if they form governments in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

पहले पहले जितन और पप्पु निकले, अब नीतिश और लालु की बोलचाल बंद होती जा रही है। ये दोनों २०-३० सीटों पर आ उतरेंगे।

सबसे अच्छा तो ये होता कि नीतिश और सुशील फिर से एक जगह आ जाते। दो तिहाइ का सरकार बनाते। बिहार के विकास के लिए। मुलायम आप को नहीं चाहते हैं, लालु नहीं चाहते हैं, सुशील मोदी तो अभी भी आपको चाहते हैं।

दलितों के पास दो रास्ता
The Next Chief Minister Of Bihar?
Nitish In Election Mode
जितन और पप्पु ने बिहार को पेंचिंदा बनाया
बिहार का मामला

Monday, May 11, 2015

जितन और पप्पु ने बिहार को पेंचिंदा बनाया

जीतन राम माझी का नीतिश से अलग हो जाना, पप्पु यादव का लालु से अलग हो जाना ------- अब तो बिहार का contest triangular हो चला और बीजेपी का पलड़ा भारी सा हो गया है। ये दोनों भले न जिते लेकिन वोट तो काटेंगे जरूर। Advantage BJP? जितन और पप्पु ने बिहार को पेंचिंदा बनाया।

बीजेपी को लेकिन इस बात का घाटा है कि वो किसी एक को मुख्य मंत्री पद के लिए सामने नहीं ला रहे हैं।

मंडल तो मोदी खुद मंडल। दोनों development men --- क्या JD(U) और BJP फिर से एक साथ नहीं आ सकते क्या?

नीतिश वैसे master strategist हैं। Caste equation में खुद मंडल man लालु को मात कर दिया दो दो बार। दलित और महादलित कर के लालु और पासवान दोनों को मात कर दिया दो दो बार।

मेरे को लगता है सुशील मोदी अभी भी नीतिश का लोहा मानते हैं। अभी भी वो शायद नंबर टु होने को तैयार हो जाए। लेकिन बात शायद बहुत आगे बढ़ चुका है। There are stakeholders in both camps who do not want a rapprochement. The fact remains that the JD(U)-BJP government in Bihar was a pretty good government.

BJP इतनी बड़ी पार्टी है कि उसमें तरह तरह के लोगों का होना स्वाभाविक है। जब RSS के कुछ लोगों ने लव जिहाद और घर वापसी की बात की तो मैंने अपना मुँह बिचकाया। तो मोदी ने भी तो अपना मुँह बिचकाया। जब मोदी गुजरात के मुख्य मंत्री थे तो उन्होंने वहां पर बहुत बखुबी से RSS को sideline कर के रख दिया था। उनका मानना था कि राजनीति करनी है तो RSS से बीजेपी में आ जाओ और चुनाव लड़ो, जित के दिखाओ, तब दिन भर राजनीति करते रहो।

जिस Hindu supremacist thinking को देख के नीतिश मुँह बिचकाते हैं, उसको देख के तो मोदी भी मुँह बिचकाते हैं। और देश में सबसे बड़ा मंडल तो मोदी ही है। और दोनों development के मामले में सबसे आगे रहे हैं।

But perhaps Nitish has waded too far. उनके ही शब्दो में "अब तो गुंजायस नहीं है। "

It is still 50-50 in Bihar, it could go either way. But Jitan and Pappu walking away weakens the chances of a Nitish comeback. नीतिश ने २०१३ में जो निर्णय लिया क्या वो hubris था? Perhaps he gambled, कि मोदी का डट के विरोध करो तो बिहार के २०% मुसलमान साथ में आ जाएंगे। लेकिन वो हुवा नहीं।
“Na Khuda hi mila, na visaal-e-sanam/Na udhar kay rahay, na idhar kay rahe (I found neither faith, nor union with my lover/And now I belong neither there nor here).”


Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Biju Janata Dal And The Land Bill

I kind of like the BJD proposed amendment. Not only it makes political arithmetic sense, it also plain makes logical sense.

मोदी का Land Acquisition
Trying Hard To Understand The Nitish Viewpoint On Land Acquisition
Land Acquisition: मोदी माँग रहे है तो दे दो
Land Acquisition Bill: The Details
Modi Should Be Allowed Land Acquisition



मैं समझने की कोशिश कर रहा हुँ। नवीन कह रहे हैं ---- आप किसान हैं, आप के पास जमीन है, उसका बाजार में भाव ५ लाख है, तो फैक्ट्री बिठाने के हिसाब से कोइ आएंगे तो वो उस जमीन को १५ लाख में खरीदेंगे --- ये मोदी कह रहे हैं ---- नवीन कह रहे हैं, पैसा दो १० लाख, बाँकी के ५ लाख के उसी फैक्ट्री में शेयर दो। ये कोइ बुरा सुझाव नहीं है। ऐसा नहीं हो सकता कि ये फैसला किसान पर छोड़ दो? वो चाहे तो १५ का १५ नगद ले ले --- या १० का नगद और ५ लाख का शेयर ले ले।

Land bill jolt to govt: BJD opposes, AIADMK may follow suit
The Centre’s hopes to pass the contentious land bill took another hit as Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janta Dal (BJD), a party that had earlier supported many government legislations, unequivocally announced on Saturday that it would oppose the bill. ..... J Jayalalitha’s AIADMK, the second-largest party in the Opposition camp after the Congress, is also “inclined to oppose” the land bill that has led different Opposition parties to join hands to dub the government as “anti-farmer”. ...... “We had welcomed the land bill in Lok Sabha. We even said we are happy with it. But happiness doesn’t mean that we will support it. We will oppose the land bill when it comes in Parliament,” Bhartruhari Mahtab, BJD’s Lok Sabha wing chief ...... If the BJD and the AIADMK joins the Opposition ranks against the bill, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) -- even with the help from an array of fence-sitters like the BSP and the NCP -- would not be able to reach the majority mark of 123 in the 244-strong Rajya Sabha. The Opposition strength, including the SP, BJD and the AIADMK, stands at 148, while the entire the NDA is just 69. ...... The BJP is 66 MPs short of majority in a Joint Session of both Houses of Parliament. The Congress has already waged a war against the bill that would make it easier to acquire land for crucial infrastructure projects. ....... The proposed bill exempts projects related to defence, rural housing and power, along with industrial corridors, from the requirement that 80% of the affected landowners must agree to a sale. ...... The stand of the BJD may come as a rude jolt for the government as it had incorporated as many as four demands of the Odisha-based party through amendments to the original bill
We will back land bill if Centre make changes: BJD
the BJD opposed the land acquisition ordinance as it demanded that the land losers should have a stake in projects for which their land is acquired
Land Bill: Government mulls joint session in parliament for legislation as some parties change stance
BJD had walked out of the Lok Sabha the last time the bill was debated, after the government accepted four of nine amendments the party had proposed. ...... "Four of our amendments were accepted but we want an important amendment, giving a stake to landholders in any economic enterprise accruing from acquired land, to be accepted" ...... It has been liaising with 'like-minded parties' Trinamool, AIADMK and the Left to push for the amendment." ..... BJD has 20 MPs in the Lok Sabha. By voting against the bill in both the Houses, BJD may push the government into calling a joint sitting of both the Houses. ..... That appears to be the only way of getting the bill cleared quickly, something the Modi administration wants to achieve as a mark of its ability to get cracking on reform. "If we get stuck on this, so early in our tenure, it will derail everything. Time is of essence," said a senior Cabinet minister. ..... Determined to clear the land bill, the government apparently sees a joint sitting as the only way out.
Jairam Ramesh Sees Secret BJP-BJD Deal on Land Bill
Explaining reasons behind Congress’ opposition to proposed changes in Land Acquisition Act, Ramesh said there were guidelines in the existing law that the Government would return the acquired land if it is lying unused for five years. However, there is no such system in the new law, he pointed out....... Similarly, the mandatory “consent” clause and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) will not be in the new Bill where ownership of land continues to be vested with the Government, he said....... Ramesh said that while the original Act has provision of securing the consent of 80 per cent affected people before land acquisition, the new law will abolish the provision.
Congress wants BJD to oppose land acquisition bill
Centre deciphering Opposition strategy to pass land bill
Amidst indications that the Modi regime would explore the option of a joint Sitting of both houses of Parliament as a last resort for the passage of the land acqusition bill, there are apprehensions within the government that this is easier said than done. ....... The government is keeping an eye on all possible strategies that the Opposition could consider for stalling the bill's passage or rejection in the Rajya Sabha ...... The government was hoping that parties like the Samajwadi Party, BJD and AIADMK, which run state governments, would warm up to the bill. However, with the Janata Parivar merger, the SP may find it difficult to take a stand which is not in line with its allies — the JD(U) and RJD, which are likely to use the bill to target the BJP ahead of the Bihar elections. ...... The Samajwadi Party has 15 MPs, the AIADMK 11 and BJD 7 in the Rajya Sabha. Senior ministers have been reaching out to parties as part of an exercise to garner support for the legislation ...... Parties which may not take an unbending stand against the bill are waiting to see if the government will bring in more changes. "We are expecting more amendments to the bill.

We want the land owner to be made a share holder in economic activity for which the land is acquired

," said BJD's B Mahtab. The government has been arguing that compensation was left to the state government. ........If the Shiv Sena, which had abstained from voting in Lok Sabha, backs the government, the NDA's numbers add up to 395 in a joint sitting of nearly 760 members. However, according to sources, the government is unlikely to act in haste and may focus on bills like GST and black money before taking up the contentious land bill. ........ the Congress launched a website called "zameenwapsi.com" as part of its agitation against the bill.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

A Unified Janata Dal Could Become Bigger Than The Congress

But this can not be like Yahoo and Bing getting together to take on Google. There is only one real way to compete with Modi, and that is with development. Mandal-Kamandal is old school. That is not going to work against Modi. He is himself a Mandal category leader. Only Nitish, among all in the Opposition, is equipped to compete with Modi on development. But he has not been able to articulate his Nitishism. Development can not happen in Bihar because Nitish is at the helm, it also has to happen in other states because the party practices a well articulated Nitishism.

It is to be noted though that the one member of the family still in a good shape, the guy in Orissa, was missing from the picture.



Socialist parties in talks to merge; Nitish likely to lead
SP, JD(U), RJD, JD(S), INLD and Samajwadi Janata Party ..... Though the meeting was convened at Mulayam’s official residence here, there are indications that Nitish may be the axis of the alliance. .... Ajit Singh’s RLD and Navin Patnaik’s BJD, however, were absent from the meeting. ...... Nitish did not rule out even the merger of these parties in the future. He, however, said at present the parties will work together with the principle of unity against the BJP. When asked about a possible alliance with the Congress, he said they did not talk about the Congress in the meeting. ...... unemployment has increased under the Narendra Modi regime. “They said they will create crores of jobs in one year. ..... The parties are facing stiff opposition from the BJP at the ground. The INLD, which was hoping to form the government in Haryana, had to go to the Opposition benches again for the third term
Nitish Kumar Hints At 'One Single Party' After Meeting Mulayam, Lalu
emerged not talk of a third front, but the hint that the "Janata parivar" could come together to form a party in the future. ...... the absence of the Left. .... Together the parties that met today have 15 Lok Sabha seats. But in the Rajya Sabha, they have 25
Janata Parivar meets, merger on the cards
“There is a strong possibility we might merge and form one party,” says Nitish ..... during the discussions the Janata Parivar leaders agreed that it was imperative that they came together as the Congress had all but vacated the Opposition space .... on key economic issues, such as the Insurance Bill, the BJP and the Congress were usually together. ..... If a merger does take place, it is likely to be followed by the formation of a joint platform with other regional parties
No decision yet on joining Janata parivar, says Patnaik
He also said that his party would remain equidistant from the Congress and BJP. ..... Patnaik indirectly indicated that the ongoing Central Bureau of Investigation probe into the chit fund scam was politically motivated. .... A BJD MP and a legislator were arrested by the central agency for their alleged complicity in the multi-thousand-crore-rupee chit fund scam. .... Patnaik, however, said that it was their personal matter. “The government or the party has nothing to do with it. The truth will come out,” he said.
Why the Lalu-Mulayam-Nitish alliance may turn out to be a lemon
Like drunks propping each other up, the new Lalu Prasad-Mulayam Singh-Nitish Kumar-Deve Gowda alliance against Narendra Modi is unlikely to hold together for long. .... Their message is "naya saal, nayi party". .... The core of the proposed alliance is thus Lalu, Mulayam and Nitish, who run relatively strong parties built on an OBC base across the two of the biggest states in the Hindi heartland – Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with 120 Lok Sabha seats between them. This is where Narendra Modi comprehensively defeated them in May 2014. ...... It is best to designate the Lalu-Mulayam-Nitish get-together as the Lemon alliance – an acronym derived from their initials LMN, which could also be an SMS short-form for Lemon. ..... It has all of 15 MPs in parliament, including ILND’s two, and hardly in a position to take on the BJP. ..... While caste combos will continue to play a subtle role in all elections, the fact is people are breaking out of old straitjackets. Caste arithmetic will not add up as easily in future. ...... a negative alliance against Modi will only work if there is strong anti-incumbency or if the alliance itself has a strong message of hope. But, if anything, it is the Samajwadi Party and the Janata Dal (United) that face an anti-incumbency mood in their states - after five years and 10 years of rule in UP and Bihar. Modi will be leading a party which will harness this anti-incumbency, if any, in 2017 and 2015. ...... modern elections are turning presidential. ...... In this department, Modi is head and shoulders above the Lemon alliance, especially given their know suspicions about each other. Lalu and Mulayam vowed to fight all elections together in 2009, but after being outshone by the Congress in UP and Bihar, they barely combined for anything. Lalu and Nitish were sworn enemies till last year. ..... The electorate is wise to these opportunistic groupings. It knows what happened to such khichdi alliances in 1997 and 1989. ..... two of the alliance leaders are fit for the geriatric ward, and two are jailbirds, convicted for corruption. Mulayam Singh is 75 and doddering, and Deve Gowda is 81. Lalu is a convicted criminal and so is INLD’s Chautala. That leaves Nitish, 63, as a young knight in shining armour. One more defeat and he too will be consigned to the dustbin of history ..... what Mayawati may be upto with the Congress - not left out of the OBC party. If it's a three-horse coalition race the next time, the advantage may still remain with the most coherent alliance of them all - the BJP's. ..... By 2019, the economy could be into overdrive. Even without heroic reforms by the Modi government, the economic tide will turn, making anti-incumbency a difficult platform from which to take on Modi in 2019. In 2009, five years of a booming economy helped the Congress to coast to victory with 206 seats.