Showing posts with label Iranian Revolution. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iranian Revolution. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Iran Re-Revolution: Victory In 2011


I think victory is possible. But victory is not going to come on its own. The world has to get involved. The democracy movement in Iran is the global netroots/grassroots' best opportunity to make a fundamental difference in the world today. Because a successful democracy movement in Iran has repurcussions for the Arab world at large.

Do you disagree with the Bush invasion of Iraq? Then pour your energies into Iran. Do you wish there were a better way in Afghanistan? Then pour your energies into Iran. Are you offended by the non democracies of Saudi Arabia and Egypt? Then pour your energies into Iran.

Anyone anywhere has the option to get involved. All you have to do is come online and express solidarity. But it goes beyond that. A democracy movement is science. There are logistics involved. There are tactics and strategies involved.

The revolution in Iran is coming back slowly but surely. And the first step is to protest from the rooftops at night. Only when you hear shouts from most rooftops in every city and town in Iran do you come out into the streets, and not before. The time to come out into the streets is not now. That is strategy.

The logistics part is that every atrocity has to be documented. When this regime is toppled, the new regime is going to put in place a Justice Commission, and those guilty of unleashing violence upon peaceful demonstrators are to be brought to justice.

And there is the part about medical services. Those who get injured during the course of protests need to be provided with immediate medical relief by the democracy movement. You can not do this unless you have great organization and great communication within the democracy movement. And so you do this as much for the few injured as you do it for the larger movement itself.

A democracy movement is not crowd chaos, although it can appear that way. A democracy movement is organized to the hilt. You have to plan every step of the way. You have to imagine all scenarios. You have to be able to see the regime's moves before the regime makes them.

An interim government has to be decided on beforehand.

The most important thing is we can no longer be asking for the regime to hold the presidential election all over again. It is not about that. It is about regime change. The democracy movement only stops when this regime has stepped down to make way for an interim government and an interim constitution with the mandate to hold elections to a constituent assembly within a year of the interim government taking power. If Iran is to be an Islamic republic instead of a secular republic, it would be for that elected constituent assembly to decide. That would be the only legitimate body to decide such a thing.

Summary: protest from the rooftops at night for now.
Michael Singh: Foreign Affairs: Iranian Re-Revolution: On June 10, when the Iranian opposition movement cancelled its planned commemoration of the anniversary of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s disputed reelection, commentators assumed that the Green Movement was finally finished. For months, it had been criticized as lacking strong leadership and for being unable to seriously challenge Iran’s entrenched regime. ...... the Constitutional Revolution of 1905–11, which for a time curbed royal power and led to the development of Iran’s constitution; the Muhammed Mossadeq era of 1951–3, which temporarily ousted Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi; and the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which replaced the monarchy with clerical rule ..... Khomeini, who, in the 1960s and 1970s, brought together an extensive coalition, including secularists, clerics, youth, and others ..... The coalition was galvanized by Mohammad Reza’s land reforms, which threatened the financial base of clerics and other wealthy elites. ...... The Islamic Revolution of 1979, moreover, had roots going back to 1960–4, when riots against the shah swept the country and Ayatollah Khomeini and many other activists were exiled. ...... elites in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps -- have benefited from Iran’s resource wealth while average citizens have struggled ..... the growing number of clergy who refrain from political activism on behalf of the regime ..... some of the citizenry have even accused the regime of being “un-Islamic” for its policies of repression and torture. ........ former conservative stalwarts, such as Mir Hussein Moussavi, the movement’s leader ....... All seek to curtail corruption, restore a greater measure of civil rights to Iranians, and establish a less dangerous, more productive relationship with the outside world. ...... The mass protests following Ahmedinejad’s election have shown that regime has lost the affection of the majority of Iranians. So even as questions persist about the Green Movement’s viability, the regime’s viability is no clearer. ...... The international community should not worry that the Green Movement is doomed, but it should harbor no illusions that its success would inevitably lead to peace and democracy in the long term. Indeed, the United States and its allies should be considering not only how best to support the democratic aspirations of Iranians but also how to prepare for the real possibility of instability in Iran should the opposition prevail.
Power to the people.

Iran will pave the way for the Arab world at large.

Iran Democracy
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Monday, September 27, 2010

The Shah Is For Secular Democracy, Not Monarchy

Coronation of the Shah of Iran in 1967, offici...Image via Wikipedia
National Post: Bringing Democracy To Iran: At 50, Mr. Pahlavi dismisses talk of restoring the monarchy in Iran and says his life is now dedicated to creating a non-violent, democratic revolution there.
The Shah of Iran could not make it clearer. He is for a secular democracy in Iran. He is not for restoring monarchy in Iran. We similarly have to reach out to Iranian groups that might have picked up weapons against the current regime in Tehran in the past. If the Shah can ditch monarchy, these groups can ditch violence.

We have to build a broad coalition of Iranian groups for the cause of democracy in Iran.

In The News

BBC: Iranian Court Bans Two Leading Opposition Parties: Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Islamic Revolution Mujahideen Organisation .... Both supported opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi ..... In recent weeks, Iranian security forces have stepped up attacks on opposition leaders Mehdi Karroubi and Mr Mousavi, with attacks on their homes and offices..... Scores remain in prison.




New York Observer: Malcolm Gladwell Compares Twitter Activism To Civil Rights: he's wrong to imply that a network of weak ties can't accomplish serious change. One could argue, for example, that social media played a crucial role in electing our first black president, a historic moment in our nation's struggle for equality.

Foreign Policy: Obama's Freedom Agenda: The freedom section of President Obama's address to the United Nations General Assembly .... the most extensive, fulsome, and compelling defense of human rights and democracy of his presidency, and it strategically placed political freedom in the context of economic freedom and development. ...... s a number of nations that are in tyranny's crucible, and whose citizens may find the possibility of freedom within their grasp. Sometimes this grasp can be aided by presidential attention or even a few strategic gestures that tip the scales...... and perhaps even recapture some of the charismatic appeal that has since his inauguration been strangely absent.

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Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Shout Allah O Akbar From The Rooftops Every Night 10-10:30 PM


I believe this has to be the next big grassroots push for the democracy movement in Iran. Urge people to shout Allah O Akbar from their rooftops every night from 10-10:30 PM. We have to do this until we hear the shout from most homes in all towns and cities across the land of Iran.

Then it will be high time to ask people to come out into the streets all over again.

But before we do that, we have a lot of political homework to do. A revolution needs a purpose. A revolution has to have a goal. A revolution needs an action plan.

The Iranian diaspora has to get organized. The global netroots/grassroots has to get organized. We need to raise money, lots of money. There are enormous logistical details involved.

Mousavi has to come around to the new goal. The goal no longer is to hold again the fraudulent elections. The goal now is regime change. This Iranian regime has to make way for a new interim government that will hold elections to a constituent assembly. That is the new goal. The Iranian diaspora has its political work cut out to rally the Iranian diaspora around that new goal. The political organizations inside Iran have to come around to this new goal.

There is no point in calling the people out into the streets before this basic political homework is done. Maybe even the shouting from the rooftops can wait a little while. Let's get down to the political work. Let's get it done.



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Sunday, September 19, 2010

Hillary's Latest On Iran

Haaretz: Clinton Urges Iran To Reject Military Expansion: In an interview for broadcast Sunday on ABC's This Week, Clinton said many Iranians are also worried ..... she has "grave disagreements" with the Iranian Revolution. .... "But the early advocates of it said this would be a republic. It would be an Islamic republic, but it would be a republic. Then we saw a very flawed election and we've seen the elected officials turn for the military to enforce their power," she said. ..... many Iranians, even those who were originally sympathetic to the revolution are starting to have serious second thoughts about the direction their government has taken. ...... "I can only hope that there will be some effort inside Iran, by responsible civil and religious leaders, to take hold of the apparatus of the state."
This is a strange coincidence for me personally that just when I should challenge Hillary to a Nobel duet, I should come across this unusually strong statement for someone who is Secretary of State. (Competing With Hillary Now)

Although her statement is more likely to do with the fact that Iran is a hot button issue, and the UN thing is about to happen. But I still took note.

I have been reading up on and writing to Prominent Iranian Americans. I figured prominent Iranian American academics might pay some attention to my claim to the butterfly effect. (The Hammer Effect, The Butterfly Effect)

For once Hillary and I are on the same side. She has really gone out on a limb with this statement of hers.

Iran is a political problem. It is not primarily a military problem. If the political problem is taken care of, the military issue vanishes like magic. And the political solution is to take the democracy movement to success. I think that goal can be achieved by the end of 2011. But I need to be able to work full time on it from now till then.

Fundraising is the not sexy part of political work. At least for me it is. But it is necessary, and I am working on it. In my own digital ways.
Haaretz: Olmert: Bush Offered To Absorb 100,000 Palestinian Refugees If Peace Deal Reached: the United States would be willing to absorb some 100,000 Palestinian refugees immediately as American citizens ..... "I think that if the refugees - many of whom are already second or third generation [Palestinians] living outside of the territories – were given a choice between returning to Israel or the United States, we could guess what they would choose" ..... every ruling Israeli government must accept the fact that peace negotiations would be based on the establishment of a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders and would include a land exchange. Still, he stressed that both sides must realize that neither Palestinians or Israel would ever have full sovereignty over Jerusalem.

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