Showing posts with label Arab World. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arab World. Show all posts

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Terrorism

Terrorists Among Us: Jihad in America
Terrorists Among Us: Jihad in America (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
ढाका में मोदी ने कहा, हमें traditional युद्ध करना आता है, सैनिक भेजो, टैंक भेजो, फाइटर प्लेन भेजो, लेकिन दुनिया को terrorism से कैसे सामना किया जाता है वो नहीं आता। True, it is a new strain of virus.

कुछ solutions हैं।

  • State building ---- जिस तरह मच्छर पानी न बहने वाली तालाब ढूँढती, उसी तरह आतंकवादी ऐसे देश ढूँढ़ते हैं जहाँ failed state हो। 
  • Cooperation between States ---- दुनिया के देशों को information sharing करनी होगी। Otherwise if each country is a silo of its own, you give the terrorists a lot of room to play. 
  • Information Technology ------ The leaders like Bin Laden might choose to go "dark." But generally speaking terrorist cells rely a lot on electronic communication. There has been much contention on this. Even in countries like America there has been a lot of talk about how civil liberties are being curtailed and citizens are being spied upon. Perhaps there is a happy medium somewhere where you rely mostly on machine reading until you have something substantial and only then you get humans involved. Like with Gmail, the email service serves you ads. But it is machine reading, and you don't feel violated. 
  • Social network mapping ------ All terrorist groups rely on social networks. Smaller and tighter the group, more reliant they are on their social networks. So when you nab a few, they lead you to others. 
  • Political grievances have to be proactively addressed. Not because terrorism is and should work. But if there are legitimate concerns, they are legitimate. And they should be addressed. Not as a matter of negotiation with the terrorists or as a step in being blackmailed, but independent of all that. 
  • The "frontline" is where you have small, agile, well trained operatives who engage in direct action. Mistakes have been made in drone attacks, but they are also one of the tools on the frontlines. 
  • Ideological fights on social media. 
  • Larger debates in society, at universities, in old media, on TV, in newspapers. Point by point rebuttals. 
Terrorists rely on the war of asymmetry because they know that is the only way they have any chance. आमने सामने आएंगे तो asymmetry गायब हो जाएगी। 

That is why you have to fear the ISIS more, because they are breaking many of the rules of the traditional terrorists. Terrorists prefer not to hold territory. 

Terrorists rely a lot on out of the box thinking. That goes along the lines of asymmetry. So you have to keep on your toes and constantly be trying to figure out what their next moves might be. It is a game of chess. 

Ultimately you just have to drown them out with plentiful information. Wireless broadband and cheap Android phones for the masses ----- I think that is the number one thing. Hundreds of millions of Muslims sharing cat videos makes ISIS irrelevant. You drown out the terrorists with everyday boring stuff. I happen to think that is the most potent weapon. 

I have said this many times. I think of the War On Terror as being on par with the Cold War. It will conclude after there is a total spread of democracy across the Arab/Muslim world.

India is the new Britain, because ultimately this is about the ideology of democracy. The oldest and the largest democracies belong together. America and India need each other.

Terrorism is "cutting edge" like Climate Change ---- they both require global coordination. No one country can tackle either. 

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Another One Bites The Dust

THE KREMLIN, MOSCOW. With the President of the...Image via WikipediaWall Street Journal: Yemen's Saleh Accepts Deal to Step Down: Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has accepted a political deal brokered by neighboring Arab countries that would have him step down from power after 30 days in exchange for immunity for himself and his close relatives, according to a presidential aide. The apparent softening of the longtime ruler's recalcitrant stance that he would remain in power until the end of his term in 2013 comes after a burst of arm-twisting and backroom diplomacy by Yemen's close allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

(via Pantless Progressive)



Saudis Going Into Bahrain Like Saddam Going Into Kuwait
To Zimbabwe Through Ivory Coast
A Rwanda Was Prevented
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Saudis Going Into Bahrain Like Saddam Going Into Kuwait

King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz. (2002 photo)Image via WikipediaJust because the autocratic regime in Bahrain extended an invitation does not mean the move was legitimate. This Arab wave of democracy does not end with the nefarious regime in Iran ending up with much more regional power. This wave will sweep away the Iranian mullahs from power. That has to be the outcome we have to work towards.

The Saudi king has to go. The mullahs in Iran have to go.

Gaddafi tried to tell the world it was the Al Qaeda playing tricks on him in Benghazi. Should we have believed him? There were people who said if you kick out Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood, a party of Islamists, will take over that important country?

And now there are people who are thinking in terms of a scenario where the Saudi king is still in power a few months from now, and the mullahs are still in power in Iran several months from now.

The whole idea is to sweep them from power. The whole idea is to start afresh. This is not a Shia Sunni fight like the Saudi royals are pressing hard for the world to believe. If the Saudi king tells you he is the person standing between you and Bin Laden, do not believe him. He is the person standing between the people of Saudi Arabia and their democratic aspirations. To that add the people of Bahrain as well.
Wall Street Journal: The New Cold War: For three months, the Arab world has been awash in protests and demonstrations. ...... a dramatic spike in tensions between two geopolitical titans, Iran and Saudi Arabia. ...... On March 14, the Saudis rolled tanks and troops across a causeway into the island kingdom of Bahrain. The ruling family there, long a close Saudi ally, appealed for assistance in dealing with increasingly large protests. ...... shows how easily the old Middle East, marked by sectarian divides and ingrained rivalries, can re-emerge and stop change in its tracks. ...... There has long been bad blood between the Saudis and Iran. Saudi Arabia is a Sunni Muslim kingdom of ethnic Arabs, Iran a Shiite Islamic republic populated by ethnic Persians..... Iran holds in its sway Syria and the militant Arab groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories; in the Saudi sphere are the Sunni Muslim-led Gulf monarchies, Egypt, Morocco and the other main Palestinian faction, Fatah. The Saudi camp is pro-Western and leans toward tolerating the state of Israel. The Iranian grouping thrives on its reputation in the region as a scrappy "resistance" camp, defiantly opposed to the West and Israel..... As far away as Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim country, the Saudis have watched warily as Iranian clerics have expanded their activities—and they have responded with large-scale religious programs of their own there. ...... Spurred on by televised images and YouTube videos from Tunisia, protests broke out across much of the rest of the Arab world. Within weeks, millions were on the streets in Egypt and Hosni Mubarak was gone, shown the door in part by his longtime backer, the U.S. government. The Obama administration was captivated by this spontaneous outbreak of democratic demands and at first welcomed it with few reservations...... In Riyadh, Saudi officials watched with alarm. They became furious when the Obama administration betrayed, to Saudi thinking, a longtime ally in Mr. Mubarak and urged him to step down in the face of the street demonstrations. ..... The Saudis were further agitated when the protests crept closer to their own borders...... As for the U.S., the Saudis saw calls for reform as another in a string of disappointments and outright betrayals..... The Saudis believe that solving the issue of Palestinian statehood will deny Iran a key pillar in its regional expansionist strategy—and thus bring a win for the forces of Sunni moderation that Riyadh wants to lead. ....... the ramping up of regional tensions has another source: fear of democracy itself. ..... Long before protests ousted rulers in the Arab world, Iran battled massive street protests of its own for more than two years. It managed to control them, and their calls for more representative government or outright regime change, with massive, often deadly, force. Yet even as the government spun the Arab protests as Iranian inspired, Iran's Green Revolution opposition movement managed to use them to boost their own fortunes, staging several of their best-attended rallies in more than a year..... Saudi Arabia has largely avoided protests during the Arab Spring ..... "The problem is a political one, but sectarianism is a winning card for them" ...... Iran and Saudi Arabia are, uncharacteristically and to some observers alarmingly, tossing direct threats at each other across the Gulf. ...... the understanding that the kingdom works to stabilize global oil prices while the White House protects the ruling family's dynasty. Washington has pulled back from blanket support for democracy efforts in the region. ....... While Saudi troops guard critical oil and security facilities in their neighbor's land, the Bahraini government has launched a sweeping and often brutal crackdown on demonstrators. ....... forced out the editor of the country's only independent newspaper. More than 400 demonstrators have been arrested without charges, many in violent night raids on Shiite villages ..... In Yemen, the Saudis, also working under a Gulf Cooperation Council umbrella, have taken control of the political negotiations to transfer power out of the hands of President Ali Abdullah Saleh
This is not a Shia Sunni fight. This is a fight between autocracy and democracy. This is a fight between the Arab peoples and their autocratic rulers. Just like the autocrats in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain see common cause, the peoples of Saudi Arabi and Bahrain have to see common cause. They have to rise together.

America has no love affair with the House of Saud. America's love affair is with democracy. It always has been, always will be. But it is for the people of Saudi Arabia to rise, it is for the people of Iran to rise all over again. I remember 2009.
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Monday, April 04, 2011

To Zimbabwe Through Ivory Coast

Laurent Gbagbo, Président de la République (Cô...Image via Wikipedia
New York Times: U.N. and France Strike Leader’s Forces in Ivory Coast: The United Nations and France went on the offensive Monday against Ivory Coast’s strongman, Laurent Gbagbo, striking his forces in a significant ratcheting-up of the months-long campaign to force him to cede power. ..... France, which has over 1,500 troops stationed in the former colony, announced that it would carry out attacks on Mr. Gbagbo’s military hardware at the request of the United Nations, joining an operation “aimed at neutralizing heavy weapons that are used against the civilian population and United Nations personnel in Abidjan,” a statement from the French presidency said..... Mig-24 helicopters had been deployed against Gbagbo military bases to “render harmless” the mortar-launchers “that are firing” on the United Nations headquarters in Abidjan and on “the civilian population.” ..... Mr. Gbagbo has refused to step down after losing an election last November to Alassane Ouattara, who was recognized as the winner by international organizations. .... Gbagbo, a former university historian who has transformed himself into a hardline autocrat over the course of a long political career.
This was never just about Tunisia. Egypt was a huge victory, but it was never just about Egypt. This thing could really grow. I want Mugabe out. I am thinking China. I am thinking Russia.

The techies of the world have to aim for the Chinese firewall. There has got to be a way in. They have managed to block sites. But they can't take the internet down. So break in. Just do it.

This is about Syria, and Iran. This is about Jordan.

But the Arab world is not enough. This democracy wave has to also engulf Africa.

The Fuck With Mugabe

Libya was a major turning point. The world sent a clear message that when people peacefully protest they will be protected.
Official portrait of Vladimir PutinImage via Wikipedia
A Rwanda Was Prevented

When the Russian president reprimanded Putin that is when I knew this wave will also crash against the Russian shores. But Russia is a big country, and we will have to build plenty of momentum elsewhere. Elsewhere is the Arab world and Africa.

Reports signal growing rift between Russia’s governing duo
Russian President Criticizes Putin's Libya Remarks
Medvedev criticizes Putin over Libya remarks
Medvedev Criticizes Putin For Calling Libya Action Crusade
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Saturday, March 19, 2011

Syria's Turn

(en) Syria Location (he) מיקום סוריהImage via Wikipedia
New York Times: In Syria, Crackdown After Protests: Protests broke out in four Syrian cities on Friday, the first large-scale demonstrations here since the pro-democracy uprisings began in the Arab world three months ago. Brutal police crackdowns followed, leaving six people dead and scores injured..... In the largest protests, several thousand people gathered in the center of Dara’a, in southern Syria, chanting “God, Syria and freedom only” ..... A Facebook page, “the Syrian revolution 2011,” has called on people to protest against corruption and repression. ..... Small protests in the capital on Tuesday and Wednesday were violently dispersed by the authorities, who arrested scores of demonstrators. The state news service, SANA, dismissed those protests as the work of outside agitators. ..... about 20 youths who had written graffiti complaining about the high cost of living and calling for more freedoms...... “They used live ammunition immediately, no tear gas or anything else”
Democracy in Syria, as in Yemen, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia or Libya, or in Iran, is not Britain's business, it is not the business of France, it is most definitely not the business of the United States of America. But when the people rise and take to the streets to peacefully protest, if any actor, any entity, any apparatus, any organization, any state structure, or mafia group, or a terrorist group, or a clan, or royal family, or an army, or a police force decides to unleash animal brutality upon those peaceful protesters, not just the US or Britain or France, but the entire community of nations on the planet has to stand up for them, and there are many, many nonviolent options. You impose global travel bans on all members of the regime, you freeze their assets, you issue strict warnings of vocal support, you extend moral support, you offer logistical support, maybe they need a few laptops, a few camera phones, medical supplies perhaps, and you give the offenders a little time, all the time making it absolutely clear unleashing animal brutality is not acceptable, and of course you press charges against them in the International Criminal Court, and you issue Interpol warrants for their arrests. And if they don't stop still, then you go to the UN Security Council for the final act. That final act still fits the definition of non violence. The violence against Hitler's regime fit the definition of non violence.

Or some monarchs in the region could do the smart thing and not unleash animal brutality upon their people and request that they be turned into constitutional monarchs. That is a legitimate option. But that is not an option still on the table after you have unleashed animal brutality upon peaceful protesters.

2011 is to be democracy's biggest year in world history. China itself is fair game. Russia is fair game. And the fuck with Mugabe.
a map of the Arab WorldImage via Wikipedia
Khalifa Of Bahrain Must Go
The Two Abdullahs Need To Go
The Response To Benghazi Has To Be In Tripoli
The Military Options
Yemen, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia
Barack Obama: My Man
Barack Obama Proved Me Wrong On Race And Libya
Don't Let Benghazi Fall
Gaddafi Just Did The Bin Laden Thing: He Threatened America
Democracy's Despair
North Korea In Sight
Secretary Hillary
John Kerry Has The Solution
No Fly Zone Or Massacre
Saudi Arabi Next
Talk to Jazeera: Saif al-Islam Gaddafi
The Anatomy Of Revolutions For Democracy

Friday Prayer: Let A Million Libyans March In Tripoli
Democracy With Lowest Possible Losses Of Human Lives
Gaddafi Is No Simon Bolivar
No Fly Zone Or Surgical Strikes
If Gaddafi Is Not President, It Should Be Easier For Him To Leave
Sound Military Options
Nicaragua, Ortega On The Radar
Make Surgical Strikes, Take The Guy Out
Kick Ortega Out
The Fuck With Mugabe
The Chinese Communist Party Can Keep The Power If They Agree To Pluralism, Federalism
This Is Also About Women's Rights
The Saudi King Is No Exception, He Has To Go Too
Democracy: An Israeli Plot?
China: 2 PM, Sunday
Bomb Gaddafi's Tent
Khameini, Gaddafi, Caecescu
Et Tu, China?
When They Open Fire
Iran: Brute Force Does Have An Answer
Iran, Bahrain and Yemen, Jordan, Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia
Arab Democracy: What The US Needs To Do: Stay Deeply Engaged
Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards
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Friday, March 18, 2011

Yemen, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia

King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz. (2002 photo)Image via WikipediaThe road map for Libya also has to be the road map for Yemen, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. It is not for the United States to urge people into the streets, but when they do come out to peacefully protest no regime anywhere should feel it is okay for them to unleash animal brutality upon those peaceful protesters.

Just because Yemen is a small country, just because Bahrain is a small country does not mean we can afford to ignore them. We encircle Saudi Arabia by doing right in Yemen and Bahrain. Freezing the global assets of repressive elites and imposing travel bans on them is where you start. Then you issue interpol warrants authorized by the International Criminal Court. Then you threaten surgical aerial strikes.

The message has to be clear. You do not get to unleash animal brutality upon a peacefully protesting people. You can refuse to accept their demands. You can negotiate with them. But you do not get to unleash animal brutality. Not in this day and age. Not in this century.

This is all about building momentum. Tunisia was about Egypt. Egypt was about Libya. Libya is about Saudi Arabia. Yemen and Bahrain are about Saudi Arabia. And the entire Arab world is about China and Russia. If we do it right in the Arab world, China could be shaking in summer.
A thick band of dust snaking across the Red Se...Image via Wikipedia
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Gaddafi Just Did The Bin Laden Thing: He Threatened America

931030-賓拉登再度現身/Bin Laden Appears on Vedio, Oct...Image by KarlMarx via Flickr
Business Insider: Qaddafi Says He Will Join Al Qaeda If The West Invades: Qaddafi is switching scare tactics. ....... For weeks he warned that any ouster of himself would let Al Qaeda take control of Libya...... Now he warns that in an invasion he would join forces with Al Qaeda. Qaddafi told Il Giornale: "We will ally ourselves with al-Qaida and declare holy war."
Used to be about do gooderism. Used to be about helping the Libyan people out. Maybe they can't do it themselves in the face of bottomless brutality. Maybe they can't stand in the face of aerial strikes. Not any more.

Now this has become about America. Here is a guy with billions at his disposal now daring America to an Al Qaeda style Holy War.

Look, I am no American stooge. For me democracy is not about America. I have strong views on race relations in America. I have strong views on campaign finance reform. During the apartheid era Gaddafi was one of the few friends Nelson Mandela's African National Congress had. Gaddafi has been at the forefront of the idea of a United States Of Africa. But you have to be elected to be a country's leader. You have to contest elections. You have to respect human rights. You have to respect free speech. You have to respect a people's right to peaceful assembly. And this guy has not been doing it.

For me this is not about doing America'd bidding. I want Iran to become a modern democracy and I want that Iran to ask as to why America has nuclear weapons. We have to complain about the global drug trade, but we also have to complain about the global gun trade where America is the largest supplier. Guns are deadlier than drugs.

For me this is about the people of Libya, for me this is about the people across the Arab world.

And now this guy just crossed a line whereby it is no longer about Libya, this is now about America. What will you do to a guy who sits on billions of dollars and tens of thousands of armed men with a global network who is threatening terrorist strikes upon the US?

You conduct surgical strikes and you take him out, that's what. This is no longer about democracy and Libya and air strikes and no fly zones. We are in the War On Terror territory now.

Democracy's Despair
The Anatomy Of Revolutions For Democracy
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Friday, March 04, 2011

The Anatomy Of Revolutions For Democracy

The Arab worldImage via WikipediaThe roadmap is as follows. You get people out into the streets in the largest numbers possible to shut down the country completely. You keep it shut down until the regime makes way for an interim government. That interim government has a year to hold elections to a constituent assembly. That constituent assembly then elects a new majoritarian government. And the assembly gets two years to write a new constitution. That is the roadmap.

As long the elected constituent assembly is part and parcel of the roadmap, I would not worry about Islamists coming to power after the fall of Arab dictators. But if there is no constituent assembly part of the roadmap, then the outcome is more iffy, and the transitions more treacherous.

Many non westerns probably think the Republican Party in America is pretty much a Christian party and America has had more than 200 years to polish up its democracy. Islam is a social, religious reality across the Arab world. All that is good on earth and in heaven, a lot of Arabs think, is due to the Allah. That reality of Islam is not necessarily a good or bad thing. The important thing is to put democratic processes in place and let the churns happen.

Democracy is good news. Not to worry.

America's role is to stay deeply engaged and to aid the process as much as possible, through the revolutions, and through the transitions, and through Arab country after Arab country turning into modern democracies.

A democracy movement is science. It can be made to work every single time.

Friday Prayer: Let A Million Libyans March In Tripoli
Democracy With Lowest Possible Losses Of Human Lives
Gaddafi Is No Simon Bolivar
No Fly Zone Or Surgical Strikes
If Gaddafi Is Not President, It Should Be Easier For Him To Leave
Sound Military Options
Nicaragua, Ortega On The Radar
Make Surgical Strikes, Take The Guy Out
Kick Ortega Out
The Fuck With Mugabe
The Chinese Communist Party Can Keep The Power If They Agree To Pluralism, Federalism
This Is Also About Women's Rights
The Saudi King Is No Exception, He Has To Go Too
Democracy: An Israeli Plot?
China: 2 PM, Sunday
Bomb Gaddafi's Tent
Khameini, Gaddafi, Caecescu
Et Tu, China?
When They Open Fire
Iran: Brute Force Does Have An Answer
Iran, Bahrain and Yemen, Jordan, Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia
Arab Democracy: What The US Needs To Do: Stay Deeply Engaged
Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards
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Thursday, March 03, 2011

Friday Prayer: Let A Million Libyans March In Tripoli



The best possible outcome would be for a million Libyans to take to the streets in Tripoli after they say their Friday prayers. That would be way better than any surgical strikes, any no fly zone.

People power.

Such a massive show of strength and solidarity might bring about further defections. It might finally engineer the fall of Tripoli, Gaddafi's final bastion.

This guy needs to go.

Rumor is it is not just Muslims in Tripoli, but Muslims across the region, across the Arab world who plan on taking to the streets after their Friday prayer. The moment we all have been waiting for.

Say your prayers, and take to the streets. Insa-allah, victory will be yours.

A big chunk of people in oil rich Libya live on two dollars a day. Can you believe?

Democracy With Lowest Possible Losses Of Human Lives
Gaddafi Is No Simon Bolivar
No Fly Zone Or Surgical Strikes
If Gaddafi Is Not President, It Should Be Easier For Him To Leave
Sound Military Options
Nicaragua, Ortega On The Radar
Make Surgical Strikes, Take The Guy Out
Kick Ortega Out
The Fuck With Mugabe
The Chinese Communist Party Can Keep The Power If They Agree To Pluralism, Federalism
This Is Also About Women's Rights
The Saudi King Is No Exception, He Has To Go Too
Democracy: An Israeli Plot?
China: 2 PM, Sunday
Bomb Gaddafi's Tent
Khameini, Gaddafi, Caecescu
Et Tu, China?
When They Open Fire
Iran: Brute Force Does Have An Answer
Iran, Bahrain and Yemen, Jordan, Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia
Arab Democracy: What The US Needs To Do: Stay Deeply Engaged
Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011

Sound Military Options

The leader de facto of Libya, Muammar al-Gadda...Image via Wikipedia
Times Of India: US flexes muscle, sends warships to Libya: The United States began moving warships toward Libya and froze $30 billion in the country's assets as the administration declared all options on the table in its diplomatic, economic and military campaign to drive colonel Muammar Gaddafi from power. ...... conferring with allies about imposing a no-fly zone over Libya. Such a move would likely be carried out only under a mandate from the UN or Nato, but Hillary's blunt confirmation that it was under consideration was clearly intended to ratchet up the pressure on Gaddafi and his dwindling band of loyalists...... USS Kearsarge had left the Red Sea to transit through Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, close to Libya. USS Kearsarge has armed helicopters and harrier jets on board as well as around 700 Marines ..... USS Enterprise had also been kept on 'high standby alert' in the Red Sea ...... A no-fly zone would require removing "the air defense capability first" ..... Anti-regime leaders said they have formed a military council in Benghazi, which has become the hub of efforts to topple Gaddafi. The council, comprising officers who joined protesters, will liaise with similar groups in other freed cities but it was not clear if there were plans for a regional command.
For America to send ground troops into Libyan territory would be a huge mistake. For one, America can't afford it. Two, I doubt the UN would authorize such a move. Three, that would send a very bad signal. It is for people power to oust dictators, that is not the job of the US military.

I have never advocated that the US send ground troops into Libya.