“It shows that they believe they have the upper hand, they believe they’re winning, and they are emboldened,” former Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Sunday
............. Trump often looks at negotiations in the frame of a power dynamic: Who has the cards? Who has the leverage? ............ The U.S. and Israeli militaries have pounded Iran hard for more than five months, destroying much of its military and killing numerous top leaders. Iran is using the Strait of Hormuz as its final point of leverage. ............ This is somehow proving effective, because there isn’t an easy way to replace this waterway in terms of global trade in the Middle East. Just a few missiles and drones can create a lot of havoc in that waterway. And Iran knows the U.S. has been reticent to send in ground troops to clear out the Strait of Hormuz (not to mention the continuing questions about how many missiles the U.S. military has available).
Trump's top options to end the US-Iran war Iran’s list includes the end of the blockade, reparations for the damages caused, and the release of frozen assets. Iran also wants the US to remove its millitary from its neighborhood......... Top experts like the University of Chicago’s Robert Pape and John Mearsheimer warn that he has no easy way out........ Earlier this month, he warned that he would bomb Iran’s key infrastructure like power plants and bridges. ......... The reality, however, is that Gulf allies like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are running out of defensive weapons. Recent media reports show that the US is also running out of sophisticated defensive and offensive weapons. ............. Trump can also decide to launch a ground invasion, potentially to capture an island. Such a move, however, would lead to more US casualties, without achieving any goals. ............ Iran no longer trusts the US, having been bombed three times during previous rounds of negotiations: in June last year, on February 28, and again in July. ............ it will demand a complete ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, and instant financial resources from the United States.
Iran says US must meet these six demands if Strait of Hormuz is to reopen “Until America corrects its behavior, the Strait of Hormuz will not open,” the notice read. .......... Never threaten Iran with any language or insult the sanctities of this nation.............. End the war and aggression against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq forever................ Lift the naval blockade and withdraw its military forces (naval and air) from around Iran.............. Pay the damages of the two wars of aggression and imposition on Iran without any reduction or reduction.............. Lift the cruel and illegal sanctions against the Iranian nation............ Unconditionally release the frozen and stolen assets of the Iranian people. ........... “The U.S. government continues to proudly announce that it is besieging Iranian ports and harassing Iranian ships. In this situation, the United States has no moral or legal standing to complain about the Strait of Hormuz not being open. In short, you reap what you sow” ............... “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” he told Axios, arguing that Iran "is in very bad shape" economically because of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports.
Trump hit with a dire warning from Republican pollsters Republican pollsters and strategists are sounding the alarm that a Democratic wave is building ahead of the midterms as voters sour on Donald Trump’s handling of the economy. .............. Trump promised a “golden age” for America. So far, voters feel he has fallen well short of that promise, particularly on the economy, where there has been a huge swing to the Democrats in the latest polls. .............. That is largely due to Trump’s historically unpopular war with Iran, which he began without congressional authorization and has seen gas prices climb from around $3 a gallon before the conflict to more than $4, squeezing household budgets.
.................. The White House has insisted that the price rises are temporary, but Republican strategists have warned for months that price rises will seriously hurt Trump and his party in November’s midterms. .............. “If Democrats could sustain leads on the economy and win double digit margins among independents as some polls show, a Blue Wave is possible,” GOP strategist David Winston said. .............. things could be especially bad for the Republicans in the battleground states. ............ while voters turn against Trump, polls show that Democrats are also gaining ground on economic credibility. ................. Fox News polling shows them leading Republicans on the issue for the first time since 2010, by 9 points in July. That marks a sharp reversal from 2022 and 2023, when Republicans held an advantage of as much as 15 points on the economy.
............... A Reuters poll from last month also showed independent registered voters, 67 percent of whom disapprove of the war in Iran, breaking toward Democrats. .............. Independents said they favor a Democratic congressional candidate by 36 percent to 20 percent. Independent voters also said they trusted Democrats more than Republicans to handle the economy. .............. Surveys also show that economic anxiety is putting some Republican-leaning voters at risk of staying home or switching sides. ............... Americans for Prosperity Action says economic concerns have put roughly 20 percent of Republican-leaning voters in swing states at risk of either sitting out the election or backing another candidate. ................. “The specific economic circumstances we’re dealing with are not really necessarily an inheritance from a previous administration. They are due to very specific decisions that this administration has made” .............. only about one-quarter of respondents rate the economy as excellent or good, while about three-quarters say it is in fair or poor shape. .............. For the first time since 2010, Fox News polls find voters citing Democrats as better on the economy than Republicans. Democrats led by 4 points on the question in April and by 9 points in July, whereas the GOP was viewed as the better economic manager by as much as 15 points in 2022 and 2023.
5 charts show how nearly 6 months of war have hammered Iran's economy Iran's economy is showing signs of serious fatigue as the war heads for the six month mark. ......... Inflation and unemployment have soared, while oil revenue has cratered amid the US blockade. ............. Iran's Misery Index hit a record high in the first quarter, and the economy is shrinking.
........ President Donald Trump told Axios over the weekend that he's shifting his approach in the war, with the US ready to let the economic pressure quietly mount until Iran is forced to return to the negotiating table. ......... A report from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimated that the blockade was likely costing the nation $435 million a day, given that oil is a key source of revenue for Iran. .......... "Iran's financial lifeline has been cut by the US blockade, and the economy will remain in a very depressed state unless it can secure concessions," William Jackson, a chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, wrote on Monday. "But whether this happens ultimately comes down to the degree of economic pain that the Iranian regime is willing to bear to achieve its military and geopolitical objectives." ................ The Misery Index, a sentiment gauge that's calculated by adding Iran's point-to-point inflation rate and the unemployment rate, hit 91.1 this spring, the highest level ever recorded, according to data from Iran's statistics center.
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A Birthday Present - If you know you know.
— Damon Zumbroegel (@DamonZumbroegel) August 10, 2026
I broke mine putting out a forest fire in the remote Sierras a couple years ago, and I honestly have not felt “complete” without it.
On this fine day, my quiver is finally complete again. Many thanks! pic.twitter.com/u5sHXhmaYs
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