Bush Did Not Get Just The Geography Wrong On Iraq



There are reports Bush-Cheney started looking for excuses to declare war on Saddam as soon as Bush got into office. It has to be noted Saddam attempted an assassination on Bush Senior some time in the 1990s when Bush Senior went on a visit to Kuwait. It was a plot that went nowhere, but Clinton did send in a few missiles in retaliation. "Not enough," Bush Junior said while campaigning for president in 2000.

The direct and indirect costs of the Iraq War have been estimated at three trillion dollars by the likes of Joseph Stiglitz. That is a ton of money. I am going to argue that sum played a key role in sending the US economy into the tizzy that it is in right now.

The verbal assaults by the Al Qaeda on Barack, the US drone strikes inside of Pakistan, neither have surprised me. The war the Al Qaeda declared on America a long time ago was an ideological war. Two vibrant, opposing ideologies continue to be very much at loggerheads.

Barack immediately started doing what he said he will do. On Guantanamo and torture, on Pakistan. The biggest downside of the misadventure in Iraq has been the Al Qaeda got pretty much a free reign in the stateless parts of northwest Pakistan from where they continue to plot. In his latest tirade Bin Laden has talked of going into "new directions." As far as Bin Laden is concerned, the entire world is a stage. He does not have to strike inside America to prove the resiliency of his organization.

It is hard to fight an unconventional war with a conventional army, with conventional tactics. Iraq was Looking Tokyo Going London, but it was also conventional. You were in a hurry to bring down a state. The Al Qaeda is stateless.

Barack might end the war in Iraq, and he might close Guantanamo, and he might end torture as a tactic, and he is hugely popular in the Arab world, and he might get the geography right in terms of a renewed focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan, but I fear he might get the details wrong.

A big chunk of the work in Pakistan is political. How do you bring the Pakistani army completely under the parliament? How do you bring the Pakistani intelligence agency, the ISI, usually called a state within a state, completely under the Pakistani parliament? The ISI gave birth to the Taliban, but back then that is what the US wanted, the Soviets had gone amok in Afghanistan.

And it would be a mistake to think the Al Qaeda exists only in a particular, rugged province in Pakistan. It is stateless, it is global. It is an ideology seeking converts, seeking the disenchanted, the angry few. They don't even need direct communication half the time to do what they need to do, which is to stage "spectacular" attacks, like the one in Mumbai, London.

I have long maintained the only way to conclude the War On Terror is by bringing about a total spread of democracy in the Arab world. There is a progressive, proactive way to do that that is nothing to do with the Al Qaeda, an organization of a few thousand individuals in an ocean of a billion Arabs/Muslims.

As in, there is not a Bush way to build democracy in Afghanistan and Pakistan, just like there was not one in Iraq. There is a progressive alternative.

Spread Democracy
Revolution

Harassing Arab Americans have been a bad idea. Talking disrespect of Islam as a religion is a bad idea. And the Palestinian plight is a permanent thorn. That has to be resolved. It is a good sign that the first foreign leader President Barack called up was Abbas.

Three major world religions clashing is not a pretty sight. There are complex emotional threads entangled. The situation is volatile, has been for decades. The task is tough. The communists claimed godlessness, the Islamists claim God. At some level that makes their ideology more challenging.

The idea remains to help make the mainstream Muslims feel their destiny is in their own hands. The hard work of peace, the hard work of state building, the hard work on education and health, the hard work of prosperity.

It is not going to be easy. It is not going to be swift. Moments might feel like reverse progress. But it is necessary work, the central challenge in global politics today.

If and when we start seeing more democracies in the Arab world, you can expect the largest political parties to be as steeped in Islam as you could argue the Republican Party in America is steeped in Christianity. Turkey is a case in point.

What the Palestinians are going through right now is worse than apartheid. It feels like a case of child abuse. The Germans abused the Jews so the Jews are going to abuse the Palestinians. Where is the logic in that?

In The News

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President Obama 'orders Pakistan drone attacks' Times Online Security officials said the strikes, which saw up to five missiles slam into houses in separate villages, killed seven "foreigners" - a term that usually means al-Qaeda - but locals also said that three children lost their lives. ....... Dozens of similar strikes since August on northwest Pakistan, a hotbed of Taleban and al-Qaeda militancy, have sparked angry government criticism of the US, which is targeting the area with missiles launched from unmanned CIA aircraft controlled from operation rooms inside the US. ........... Mr Obama has made Afghanistan his top foreign policy priority and said during his presidential campaign that he would consider military action inside Pakistan if the government there was unable or unwilling to take on the militants. ........ Since September, the US is estimated to have carried out about 30 such attacks, killing more than 220 people.
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India revels in acclaim for 'Slumdog Millionaire' Christian Science Monitor Dharavi, a grubby slum in Mumbai (Bombay) that is touted as Asia's largest ....... "Slumdog ... is Boyle's gift to Mumbai," Shobha De, a socialite and author ....... More than 60 percent of Mumbai's citizens are known to reside in slums. The most visible of them is Dharavi, a labyrinth that is home to more than 1 million people. ....... one toilet for every 1,500 people ...... Many of Mumbai's elite view Dharavi as a blight that must be purged if the city, India's financial and entertainment capital, is to achieve stature as a world-class city. Local politicians have long dreamed of transforming Mumbai into "India's Shanghai."
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Newsday With a broad smile, Clinton won excited, almost giddy, applause and cheers from hundreds of diplomats, foreign service officers and staff as she worked a rope line in the department's packed main lobby yesterday morning. ....... Obama and Vice President Joe Biden paid an unusually early visit to Foggy Bottom ....... "I've given you an early gift: Hillary Clinton. ....... She then took an intelligence briefing and toured the building before holding a closed meeting with Obama, Biden and national security advisers.
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India PM Singh to miss months of election campaign due to heart bypass Telegraph.co.uk speculation that Rahul Gandhi, the son of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and great- grandson of Nehru, will lead the Congress Party campaign. ........ The economist is 76 and this will be his second bypass and third heart operation. He also suffers from diabetes, which is expected to delay his recovery from surgery. ....... Sources close to the Gandhi family say they want Rahul to assume the party leadership as soon as possible. "It is his destiny" ...... he will also replace his father as India's youngest prime minister.
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Oscars not ultimate recognition, says Amitabh Bachchan Times of India Bachchan said he was very happy as Indian films were catering to amount 2.5 billion people ..... Describing cinema as a uniting medium, the actor said there was no better example of an integrated India than a cinema hall.
Bollywood's Bachchan apologises to 'Slumdog' director AFP Despite having a British director, producer, writer and studio, India has claimed the film as its own because of its Indian cast, crew and location and is eagerly anticipating next month's Oscars.
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