Showing posts with label blockchain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label blockchain. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Masa, MBS, And The Broader Investment Climate



I am not counting WeWork and Uber out yet. They still might come back. But Elon Musk is hellbent on eating Uber's lunch. And it is hard to bet against Elon Musk.

What I note is both Uber and WeWork have had culture problems. When your company's valuation goes into dizzying heights, it is easy to congratulate yourself. It is easy to take all the credit. It is easy to say you did it all by yourself. It is easy to get giddy. It is easy to lose your fulcrum. It is easy for the corporate culture to deteriorate. When the corporate culture is poisoned, it is only a matter of time before a company goes belly up.

What do I think of Masa Son? I think he is a genius. He ranks with Steve Jobs. What Steve Jobs was to technology, Masa Son has been to finance. But I would not give Imran Khan a cricket bat today. He is better off running a country. Maybe Masa is past his prime. Maybe Masa became lazy. His specialty was spotting Alibaba before anyone else. He went big on Yahoo before anyone else. But in recent years he went into WeWork and Uber after everyone else had spotted them. He went into WeWork and Uber for all the wrong reasons. He went into them because they were grabbing headlines.

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia put a lot of money into Masa Son's kitty. Masa talked him into it. I say to MBS, congratulations, you have failed spectacularly. And I don't mean that in a sarcastic way. The number one quality of the Silicon Valley culture is that failure is celebrated. If you have a bunch of failed tech startups in your past as a tech entrepreneur, venture capitalists find that highly attractive.

Where technology is going to go in the next 25 years is going to be 100 times more spectacular than whatever has happened in the past 25. So it is not that MBS' timing was not right. And it is not that he bet on the wrong person. Masa is rightfully a legend.

If I were MBS, I would plot to put something like 100B into some company (or companies) that firmly rest on the Blockchain and target the poorest two billion on the planet. That 100B would become 1T or even 2T in a 10-year timeframe.

Maybe I can help!

Saudi Arabia needs to make a few bold moves like this one if it is not to see a decline in 10 years. Clean energy is good news for everybody. It does not make sense for there to be no planet. If there is no habitable planet left, it does not really mean much that a country is rich. Rich loses meaning in that scenario. But a country like Saudi Arabia must diversify. That is the mantra.




I am a very political person. I can't think of Saudi Arabia (or any country, for that matter) and not think politics. And let me say at the very outset, as an avid student of American politics for decades now, it is my strong opinion that the American political system is severely lacking, and requires fundamental change. Not only that, I see enormous resistance to any suggestions for change. And not only from people who might in the short term not benefit too much from the change. The very people who might benefit drag their feet.

I don't think the American political system is the ideal that every country needs to move towards. Even if the idea is a western-style liberal democracy, look at the many countries of Europe. Each so-called western democracy seems to carve out its own unique path. And so it can be said every country on earth is destined to carve out a unique political path.

If the United States will move up to its next level of economic development, it must transform its politics. If China is to avoid the middle-income trap, it must transform its politics. If Saudi Arabia is to diversify and not see decline in 10 years, it must transform its politics.

My recommendation to every monarchy in the Gulf is to create a path to a constitutional monarchy. Again, the pace will be unique to every country. And the monarch need not be as laid back as Queen Elizabeth. It is possible to create a constitutional monarchy where the monarch stays a fairly active figure. As to the unique path for each country, and the shape of that particular constitutional monarchy, there can be debate and discussion.

A more participatory political system is likely to exert that requisite pressure that will force the Gulf economies to diversify and maintain their vibrancy even during the fast-approaching clean energy era. There is a major economic incentive for political reform.

And this is the least disruptive way to transform. Arab Springs, by definition, are phenomenon that blindside you. They come out of seemingly nowhere. So it makes sense to be proactive about it.

Saturday, September 21, 2019

The Blockchain Will Make A Global Wealth Tax Possible



Nobody is saying American Basic Income (ABI). The term is UBI, or Universal Basic Income. It necessarily has to cover every human being on the planet (and any other planet, should Elon Musk get his way).

Universal Basic Income (aka Freedom Dividend) Is Not Free Money

Forget robotics, forget automation, forget artificial intelligence, forget technology. The wealth inequality on its own is as big a problem as the climate crisis. The threat is existential. Unless the wealth gap in this country and around the world is significantly reduced, ahead lies mayhem. Human civilization will not work if the gap keeps widening. Right now it is widening.

The globe is warming. The wealth gap is widening. And the two are two sides of the same coin, like electricity and magnetism.

Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival



How do you put in place a wealth tax? You need to know who everyone is. You need to know what everyone owns. You need to know what the sum total of wealth on earth is. The data on each of that is scant right now. It is certainly not in any one database.

That is where technology comes in. Look at how easy it has become to send anyone text and photos these days. We think of it as free. In 1990 it was not free. It was not possible. If you wanted to share pictures, you needed to use postal mail. It cost money. It was slow. It was not done much.

The Blockchain is the Internet on steroids. The Blockchain is going to be 100 or 1,000 times more impactful than the Internet. The Blockchain will do to money what the Internet has done to media. Everyone on earth will get a biometric ID. What every person owns in terms of wealth will get recorded on that Blockchain. And then the wealth tax is easy. According to one proposal, that of Senator Elizabeth Warren, you simply pay 2% every year on all wealth you own above 50 million dollars.

That sounds like trickle-down economics to me. Unless your wealth above 50 million is generating at least 3% income, or likely 5% or more, why will you want to keep it? And so the idea of parking money will no longer be in vogue. Right now the ultra-wealthy have trillions of dollars in parked money, wealth that exists, but that is not invested in anything productive like clean energy, or a new generation of jobs.

The global wealth tax is coming. It is unstoppable. The Blockchain does not belong to any company or country.

The Blockchain: Fundamental Like The Internet



You are looking at a world government.

Towards A World Government



All the grand challenges in the world today are global in nature. Only a world government can tackle them.









Saturday, August 03, 2019

An Intelligent Conversation On Trade

I am not a big fan of Donald Trump. The guy is asinine. But you do deal with the office.

There is a need for an intelligent conversation on trade. Donald Trump is a hammer looking for a nail. He is arguing against sound economic theory. At some level, his moves can be seen as a fascist's fantasy for a Great Depression. Come, Depression, come!

He has beef with China, but he also has beef with India. He has beef with India, but he also has beef with Germany.

The WTO has prevented many wars. Countries that trade seldom go to war. Instead of saying China lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, Donald Trump says China stole hundreds of billions of dollars. Minus China, the US was looking at a Great Depression in 2008. It is good to have some large economies in the world.

Trade talk has to be forward-looking. The pre-WTO world had much strife.

Giving every human being on earth a biometric ID that rests on the Blockchain, and giving everybody access to credit and financial services, in general, is what would be forward-looking. The next generation of trade talks will be about allowing human beings to move from anywhere to anywhere else on earth. That would immediately add trillions of dollars to the global GDP.

Intellectual property laws written in the US Congress can not be imposed upon the world. That truth is no clearer than with medicine. What we need is a world government, a global parliament.


Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Donald Trump Is Messing Up A Good Thing



Donald Trump is America's Boris Johnson. The two admire each other greatly. Trump is rooting for Boris to become Prime Minister of Britain. This is hubris melting into recklessness.

If America had three dollars in 2001, it made one of those three dollars in the 1990s. Something like the Internet can give you a marked rise in productivity. But the technology on its own is agnostic. It does not innoculate you against harmful inequality. That the people get to do through the democratic process.

If America has five dollars today, it stands to have another 10 dollars by something like 2035. The new technologies are about to bring forth massive gains in productivity. But left to its own devices you could end up with a society like portrayed in The Hunger Games. There is a tiny rich elite. And the masses can barely get by.


Inequality has to be thought of in the same breath as climate change. It will take civilization to a cliff.

Trump's attitude towards it is (1) denial, (2) deliberate misdiagnosis (The Mexicans! The Chinese!), and (3) Pied Piper leadership (read my tweets!).

Projections that put China at number one in 2050 and India at number two also put the US at number three. For the tiny population that the US is in comparison, that is not a bad slot to be in. Measured by per capita income, the US might still be number one.

But that whole projection has to be taken with a grain of salt. Which projection in 1980 put China in 2019 where it is today? The leading economy in 2050 might as well be a country not even on the radar right now.

Boris Johnson will wreck the British economy. Given the chance, Donald Trump will do the same thing on this side of the pond.




Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival
Towards A World Government
30-30-30-10: A More Thoughtful And Egalitarian Formula For Equity Distribution In Tech Startups For The Age Of Abundance
The Blockchain: Fundamental Like The Internet
The Character Called The Tech Entrepreneur



India 2050: Amitabh Kant
5G Challenges US Hegemony
Brexit, Aexit, And Trump
African Economic Union
Understanding China (2)
Trump's Prospects In 2020
Understanding China
Political Fallout For Xi
Made In China 2025
Trade War: The Spiral Down Scenario
Three Crises: China, Iran, DC

5G Challenges US Hegemony

The US has been acting like an empire. It acts like it owns a big chunk of the sky over the Pacific and the Atlantic. Only a few days ago I learned that. That is but ridiculous.

China is trying to imitate that behavior in the South China Sea. That is equally ridiculous.

This trade war is not David versus Goliath. This trade war is not who is right, who is wrong. There are two wrong parties.

There is a need for a new world order that is just. It is based on the premise that every human being is created equal.

5G is fundamental infrastructure. It is going to be vastly empowering for the individual everywhere.

The new order is not about challenging the United States or China. It is about challenging the very idea of the nation-state. The global village needs a village council.

5G challenges the nation-state. The Blockchain will challenge the US Fed, and every central bank on the planet. They have disproportionate powers.

The Internet challenged the media houses of the world. The Blockchain will challenge the banks of the world, among other things.

This trade war is stupid in that it is not even asking the right questions. It is a folly to try to answer the questions that are being asked.

Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival
Towards A World Government
30-30-30-10: A More Thoughtful And Egalitarian Formula For Equity Distribution In Tech Startups For The Age Of Abundance
The Blockchain: Fundamental Like The Internet
The Character Called The Tech Entrepreneur





Friday, June 24, 2016

Warren, Wall Street, And The VP Ticket

No The world will go mad before it succumbs to climate catastrophe. You could argue The Donald is already taking the lead on the going mad part.

No Warren on the ticket and America ends up with not one but two fractured conventions. That will be like America went mad.

Sometimes I feel the Clintons think too much in terms of loyalty. Nobody is trying to be loyal to the Clintons. People are just trying to get the political work done.

You can get too good at building the political machine and end up the political IBM of the 1990s.

The people who tried and failed to draft Warren are the ones who voted for Bernie. Warren refused to be drafted in an obvious nod to Hillary. If Hillary had not been in the picture Warren would have run. And won.

That is not someone with rabble rousing intentions. That is someone with intentions to defer to Hillary's centrist instincts.

But what if Warren on the ticket gives Hillary the House? Then the center itself will have moved to the left.

About time.

The same voters who supported the Republican Party and prevented a three trillion stimulus in 2009 are complaining they are hurting and are siding with the Trump madness. Three trillion was what the best of economists wanted. A much bigger monetary stimulus was given and much of that money went to Wall Street. A three trillion financial stimulus would have gone primarily to Main Street. No, you were not misled by billionaires. You acted stupid.

Bill Clinton has a character flaw. It is that flaw that made him give in to Wall Street when Wall Street came knocking in 1998 wanting to do away with the firewall between traditional and investment banking. That snowballed into 2008.

There are media reports Bill Clinton yet again intends to cave in to Wall Street on Warren. How does this story end this time?

If Bill is going to decide on the VP, is Hillary but a Manchurian candidate? Will the real candidate please stand up?

Bill Clinton has a wonderful opportunity to play the politically gifted spouse. He is not the candidate. He is not going to be president.

The threat is if you put Warren on the ticket, we will not give you any more money. Ends up it might be a loss of 30 million dollars.

Talking just about money, that might be a loss of 30 million from Wall Street and a gain of 300 million from the grassroots. I say take the money.

The Blockchain will do to money what the Internet did to information. Too big to fail is not capitalism, it is monopoly. The market demands competition. The Wall Street firms are like the paper newspapers of 1990. They have no clue what is just round the corner. Nobody has heard of the Cisco, the Google, the Facebook, the Amazon of the Blockchain, because they have not even been incorporated yet.

This is not communism. This is not Bernie's socialism. This is technology and innovation. This is the market economy as it should be. This is common sense. This is being God loving.

You do not want to apply liquid water physics at 110 degrees. You want to do evidence based decision making. You want to take the temperature and you want to get into steam physics.

The world is at the cusp of the Age Of Abundance, made possible by technology. When the productivity gains are an unheard of 10,000%, you prepare the policy framework for a Universal Basic Income. In less than 10 years, America will have to do the sensible thing on Universal Basic Income. The Bernie/Warren crowd is not a throwback to another era. These are people who see what's around the corner.

And it is time Native Americans took over. I learned from The Donald Warren is part Native. It's about time.

The Native Americans had a much better score on the environment anyways.

Larry Ellison, the colorful founder of Oracle, was Bill Clinton's first and biggest donor in the 1992 cycle, a big move for a guy who had simply not cared about politics after Bobby Kennedy was assassinated. But after Clinton put Al Gore on the ticket, he did not give "a dime," because Gore as Senator had sided with a tech rival of his who had been "good to me." That was before Larry discovered the art of funding politicians.

"Exactly what units of goodness are we talking about here, Senator? "

I have noticed in the recent months Zimbabwe and Venezuela have both ended up with similar predicaments. The only Mugabe I know is a dictator. I am not opposed to left leaning politics or even socialism as long human rights are not violated, but Hugo Chavez has never felt particularly inspiring to me.

But the ground reality in both countries have become identical. Ordinary people are suffering. Basically there seems to be a currency collapse. Not only that the media narrative on both seems to be identical. Well respected media brands have been peddling identical stories on both countries. It is their fault.

But it feels like the mighty dollar has been used to demolish the economies of two countries whose leaders challenged the wrong powers. But the punishment has to be meted out without being seen. And hence the orchestrated media campaigns of planted stories.

This were all good and dandy except I have seen a repeat of the same on the Elizabeth Warren meme. After the first story came out suggesting some Wall Street honchos were not only unhappy about the idea of Warren as veep, which is fine, you have the democratic right to be happy or unhappy, I am happy, but that they think Hillary really does not have the option to even consider the Warren name, for they are going to turn off the money tap, as if it is not for the Democratic nominee to decide who her running mate is going to be. For one that suggestion is grossly sexist.

Elizabeth Warren is no Robert Mugabe. Elizabeth Warren is no Hugo Chavez. I am absolutely clear on that.

And stop punishing the people of Zimbabwe and Venezuela. Don't blame the people for their leaders.

The Devil is capable of infiltrating institutions of law enforcement. The Devil is capable of infiltrating Wall Street institutions. You have to watch out.

Wall Street honchos should stoop down and do the citizen thing. If you don't like Hillary don't vote for Hillary. If you don't like Hillary don't make campaign contributions to her. But don't suggest the power to pick her running mate rests with anyone except her.

I am looking for a press release, frankly. Put your name down. We the here signed finance geniuses think Warren would be disastrous for the American economy for the following reasons.

And let the debate begin.