Showing posts with label political reform. Show all posts
Showing posts with label political reform. Show all posts

Saturday, November 06, 2021

Reorganize The US Senate

DC and Puerto Rico ought to become states.

All 52 states should get a minimum one Senator each. After that, it should be based on population for a total of 200 Senators. So it would be roughly one Senator for about two million or less Americans. That would give California something like 20 Senatorial districts.

It would help to have open primaries. So the two top vote getters might both belong to the same party. And then they go compete in the general election. That should also be true for the House races. Open primaries would kill gerrymandering.



As for president, might as well directly vote. Get rid of the electoral college.

Saturday, January 11, 2020

China And Xi

For Xi Jinping, the biggest danger to the Communist Party is itself under the official hyperbole that China is fast becoming a world power lies one factor which keeps Chinese leaders awake at night – their capacity to manage the complex challenges at home and abroad in order to stay in power. ........ past plenums have often heralded the country’s most important political or economic changes. ........ For instance, back in 1978 at the third plenum of the 11th Central Committee, Deng Xiaoping orchestrated China’s epoch-making shift towards reform and opening up, making “economic construction” the mantra to replace Mao Zedong’s “class struggle” and putting the Chinese economy on the path of rapid development. ........ their well-vaunted governance model, which they have been trumpeting as a viable alternative for other developing countries. This basically means that in return for allowing market forces to play an important role in the economy and in improving people’s living standards, the Chinese leadership maintains tight autocratic control and cracks down on political dissent, as opposed to the liberty and values espoused by Western democracies. ........ “party, government, military, civilian, academic; east, west, south, north, and the centre, the party leads everything”. ............ from Xi’s own perspective, the biggest danger to the rule of the party is the party itself....... “I believe the one who can defeat us is ourselves, no one else,” he said of the ruling party, which has 89 million members and 4.5 million grass-roots branches. .........

He ruminated that when the Soviet Communist Party had 200,000 members, it seized power. When it had two million members, it defeated an invasion by Nazi Germany in World War II. But it lost power when it had 20 million members.

........... On the Chinese mainland, Xi’s anti-corruption campaign has decisively tamed widespread official corruption, but its side-effects have also become obvious. One of them is that officials have retreated into a lethargic mode and are averse to making any decisions, obfuscating government directives in order to deflect responsibilities. ......... the party’s forceful efforts to assert control have unnerved an increasing number of private entrepreneurs, reducing their appetite for investment. This has led to a downward trend for overall private investment, dragging down economic growth........ Even well-known political figures and businesspeople often disappear for months, if not years, before reports emerge that they are being held on corruption allegations. ........Hong Kong people’s distrust of the Chinese mainland’s law enforcement and judicial system was one of the key reasons behind massive protests against the now-withdrawn extradition bill, which would have allowed the city to send suspects to the mainland. The protests have since morphed into a wider anti-government and pro-democracy movement....... More than 40 years have passed since Deng made the monumental shift from Mao’s class struggle to a national emphasis on economic construction. Time is due for the Chinese leadership to make another strategic shift to the rule of law if China wants to become a responsible and respected world leader.




How the Hong Kong protests affected overseas Chinese in Asia and beyond The anti-government demonstrations have not only impacted those in the city, they have been felt by Chinese communities everywhere from New Zealand to Canada ...... But protesters in India and Indonesia also described learning lessons from Hong Kong demonstrators ........ The estimated 1.5 million Chinese students studying at campuses around the world faced increased scrutiny as the protests in Hong Kong garnered international attention, especially when they defended Beijing’s policies. ........ South Korean students have complained about being targets of cyberbullying and doxxing in response to their support for Hong Kong protesters. ........ Several Chinese students who spoke to This Week in Asia, especially those who are apolitical, said they had tried to avoid engaging others on the issue, but increasingly felt like they were being forced to pick sides. “You are either pro-democracy, pro-human rights, or you are pro-China. They are putting us in this awkward position. We cannot say we are anti-China because we are from China,” one student said. ....... 208 Canadian Chinese groups in July jointly signing ads in Chinese-language newspapers in Canada denouncing the “radical” Hong Kong protesters.......... In September, thousands of Indonesians took to the streets to protest against the government’s proposed legislative changes, which critics said would restrict free speech and discriminate against women and minorities. ....... More recently, protests have flared up in India over the government’s controversial new citizenship law, which would grant citizenship to non-Muslim refugees from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan..... A social media campaign soon started in solidarity with the mostly students who were assaulted while protesting against the law, taking lessons from other such movements such as the Hong Kong protests.

One of the first things they did was download the Bridgefy app, which allowed them to communicate with each other via Bluetooth, amid rumours that mobile and internet connections would be shut down.



Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Masa, MBS, And The Broader Investment Climate



I am not counting WeWork and Uber out yet. They still might come back. But Elon Musk is hellbent on eating Uber's lunch. And it is hard to bet against Elon Musk.

What I note is both Uber and WeWork have had culture problems. When your company's valuation goes into dizzying heights, it is easy to congratulate yourself. It is easy to take all the credit. It is easy to say you did it all by yourself. It is easy to get giddy. It is easy to lose your fulcrum. It is easy for the corporate culture to deteriorate. When the corporate culture is poisoned, it is only a matter of time before a company goes belly up.

What do I think of Masa Son? I think he is a genius. He ranks with Steve Jobs. What Steve Jobs was to technology, Masa Son has been to finance. But I would not give Imran Khan a cricket bat today. He is better off running a country. Maybe Masa is past his prime. Maybe Masa became lazy. His specialty was spotting Alibaba before anyone else. He went big on Yahoo before anyone else. But in recent years he went into WeWork and Uber after everyone else had spotted them. He went into WeWork and Uber for all the wrong reasons. He went into them because they were grabbing headlines.

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia put a lot of money into Masa Son's kitty. Masa talked him into it. I say to MBS, congratulations, you have failed spectacularly. And I don't mean that in a sarcastic way. The number one quality of the Silicon Valley culture is that failure is celebrated. If you have a bunch of failed tech startups in your past as a tech entrepreneur, venture capitalists find that highly attractive.

Where technology is going to go in the next 25 years is going to be 100 times more spectacular than whatever has happened in the past 25. So it is not that MBS' timing was not right. And it is not that he bet on the wrong person. Masa is rightfully a legend.

If I were MBS, I would plot to put something like 100B into some company (or companies) that firmly rest on the Blockchain and target the poorest two billion on the planet. That 100B would become 1T or even 2T in a 10-year timeframe.

Maybe I can help!

Saudi Arabia needs to make a few bold moves like this one if it is not to see a decline in 10 years. Clean energy is good news for everybody. It does not make sense for there to be no planet. If there is no habitable planet left, it does not really mean much that a country is rich. Rich loses meaning in that scenario. But a country like Saudi Arabia must diversify. That is the mantra.




I am a very political person. I can't think of Saudi Arabia (or any country, for that matter) and not think politics. And let me say at the very outset, as an avid student of American politics for decades now, it is my strong opinion that the American political system is severely lacking, and requires fundamental change. Not only that, I see enormous resistance to any suggestions for change. And not only from people who might in the short term not benefit too much from the change. The very people who might benefit drag their feet.

I don't think the American political system is the ideal that every country needs to move towards. Even if the idea is a western-style liberal democracy, look at the many countries of Europe. Each so-called western democracy seems to carve out its own unique path. And so it can be said every country on earth is destined to carve out a unique political path.

If the United States will move up to its next level of economic development, it must transform its politics. If China is to avoid the middle-income trap, it must transform its politics. If Saudi Arabia is to diversify and not see decline in 10 years, it must transform its politics.

My recommendation to every monarchy in the Gulf is to create a path to a constitutional monarchy. Again, the pace will be unique to every country. And the monarch need not be as laid back as Queen Elizabeth. It is possible to create a constitutional monarchy where the monarch stays a fairly active figure. As to the unique path for each country, and the shape of that particular constitutional monarchy, there can be debate and discussion.

A more participatory political system is likely to exert that requisite pressure that will force the Gulf economies to diversify and maintain their vibrancy even during the fast-approaching clean energy era. There is a major economic incentive for political reform.

And this is the least disruptive way to transform. Arab Springs, by definition, are phenomenon that blindside you. They come out of seemingly nowhere. So it makes sense to be proactive about it.

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Xi Jinping Should Act

Xi Jinping, the president of China, will act, or he will find himself in the dustbins of history.

He is the only person who can act. It's not Carrie Lam. It is not the Chinese Politburo. It is Xi.

For as long as Xi does not act, he is an emperor who is walking naked.

Xi should accept the five demands in Hong Kong. And Xi should pledge political reform for all of China.

Xi Jinping does not have unlimited time. It is best he acts before October 1. Or he and his party might already be in the dustbins of history by the New Year.

Xi calls Deng Xiaoping's reforms the second revolution. China has done remarkable work over the past four decades digging millions out of poverty. Hundreds of millions. Xi should launch the third revolution. The third revolution has to be about political reforms.

Political reforms in China need not be about copying the political system in the United States. There is plenty of dissatisfaction in the United States. Money is too decisive a force in the US. People first run in the money primary. Voters don't really have much of a choice. That is why an overwhelming majority in the US can want universal health care and not get it.

Capitalism is in crisis. The wealth inequality is unsustainable and getting wider.

Face it. Communism is in crisis. It was never meant to be anti-people. It was never meant to be undemocratic.

Xi could grant universal suffrage for Hong Kong, but install the kind of campaign finance reform that progressives in the US only dream about. Xi could shape this tide. Or he could sit on his hands and wait until he is washed away. He could be washed away in a few short months.

Accept the five demands for Hong Kong now, and give a major speech on October 1 in Beijing to launch political reforms for all of China.

Inaction is not an option.



If I were to write a speech for Xi, it would look like this.

October 1, Beijing:

Two weeks ago, I convened a meeting of the politburo, and we decided to accept the five demands of the Hong Kong street protests. These idealistic young people in Hong Kong are full of energy and enthusiasm. They stand to rejuvenate not only Hong Kong but China at large.

There was a real danger things might go out of hand. We have managed to avoid that. We are here to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of this republic. And people across China, people in Hong Kong, young and old, are cheering.

In accepting the five demands, we have not imported a political system from anywhere. China does not believe in political exports and imports. It is for each country to decide its own political system. When Hong Kong rejoined China in 1997, we agreed to one country, two systems. Foreign Direct Investment that has been indispensable to our economic growth has come by way of Hong Kong in large measure. And the Chinese mainland is thankful.

Us accepting the five demands has been us respecting the political evolution of Hong Kong. The political arrangement that worked for them was no longer enough. It was time for something new.

For over a year now, the US and China have slapped tariffs on each other's exports. There is no winning side. Our economy has slowed down. Their economy has slowed down. I call on the G20 to launch a new round of reforms for the World Trade Organization. Some structural reforms that the US seeks in the Chinese economy are similar to some reforms we have sought for our own economy for years. Those reforms are necessary if we are to see the best allocation of our large but limited financial resources. If we are to avoid the middle-income trap, we must reform. If we are to see the next stage of economic growth, we must reform. If we are to move from a large manufacturing base to a high tech economy, we must reform.

Reform is not easy. It is like pulling teeth. There is pain. But reform is necessary. We have to take the necessary steps.

The founding of the republic in Mao's leadership was our first revolution. Economic reforms launched by Deng Xiaoping were our second revolution. Instead of saying capital has no place, we changed tack and started saying capital does have some place, a major place actually. And it has worked. Is there any country in the history of the world that has lifted more people out of poverty than China?

It will soon be time for our third revolution. On this 70th anniversary of the founding of our republic, I invite citizens across China, and members of this party to start a conversation. If we were to usher political reforms, what would they look like? We will hold this conversation for a few years and then start making changes as necessary.

We must be vigilant, though. We can not simply copy what is already not working in some other countries. We Marxists take the scientific approach. We collect data. We study and analyze. We experiment. We debate and discuss. And I believe Hong Kong has showed the way. Deng started in Guangdong what was unthinkable in China only a few decades before that. Hong Kong is the Guandong for political reforms. We will see how things play out in Hong Kong for a few years. We will then take some of the political reforms to the Hong Kong Bay Area at-large, and then eventually to the rest of China.

I am open to the idea of a directly elected president for China. But I am not open to the idea of a handful of rich people buying out political leaders. We must make sure power stays with the people. Capital does not get to hijack power.

Let the conversation begin.



The Asymmetry Between Beijing And Hong Kong Is On Hong Kong's Side

Beijing is over a billion people. Hong Kong is not even 10 million. Beijing has an army that could challenge the United States. The Hong Kong protestors only have gas masks and mobile phones. Beijing has unlimited billions it could put towards propaganda efforts and policing inside China. And it does spend a lot on policing and censoring. But still this is a no win situation for Beijing. It is like Beijing is IBM in 1979, and Hong Kong is Apple, or Beijing is Microsoft in 1999 and Hong Kong is Google. It is like Beijing is the PC and Hong Kong is the smartphone. Hong Kong taunts, and Beijing can only issue empty threats.

Beijing tried to imitate Hong Kong. It thought it created Shanghai. They got the hardware right: the roads, the bridges, the skyscrapers, the city lights at night time. But the software is missing. Shanghai is like an iPhone without Google Maps. For Shanghai to become Hong Kong, you need free speech, you need cultural diversity, you need rule of law, not rule of communist party, you need universal suffrage.

China depends on Hong Kong for funds. FDI enters China through Hong Kong. Hong Kong has the upper hand.

IBM did come around to making the PC. Microsoft did try to catch up with Bing. Apple simply let Google Maps to come rule the iPhone. Beijing has no choice but to let Hong Kong lead the way for all of China on political reforms. Or the dam will simply break. The dam could break before the New Year.

Hong Kong protestors should do their best to (1) not engage in damage of property and (2) not engage in violence. That kind of internal discipline will send a strong message to the world. Then the slightest acts of violence by the Hong Kong police will be major blows to Beijing. This is about claiming moral authority. It is powerful. Hong Kong keeps the upper hand that way.

2019 in Asia does not have to be like 1989 in Russia. Beijing should make the smart choice and bend. Agree to the five demands and keep one country, two systems intact. Before it is too late.



February 2019: Workers' Activism Rises as China's Economy Slows. Xi Aims ...
China: Strikes and protest numbers jump 20%
Why protests are so common in China - Masses of incidents




The new battle in Hong Kong isn’t on the streets; it’s in the apps Activists are using Airdrop, livestreams, and innovative maps to keep their protest alive. But the authorities have plenty of tech of their own. ............. Hong Kong is famous for its souk-like electronics malls, and it’s blanketed with high-speed internet. So when protests broke out in June over plans to implement a controversial extradition law—which would see Hong Kongers accused of crimes turned over to mainland China’s notoriously opaque justice system—it was natural that many people turned to online services for more information and guidance............. Everything from supplies of food and water to press conferences are put together in the chat app Telegram ......... LIHKG, a Reddit-like forum that is limited to local ISPs, provides a sandbox of ideas where a network of anonymous citizens can exchange memes, protest schedules, and tactics. Online polls often dictate the location of the next traffic-disrupting flash mob. .......... a small army of journalists and activists have been live-streaming everything from major marches to minor spats with police. The raw videos tap into local media habits—

many people leave live streams playing in the background while they cook dinner or hang out with friends—and help create a sense of solidarity and belonging, even among those who are not on the streets themselves

............ Supply chain: Thanks to messages on Telegram and information sent via AirDrop, protesters are able to get supplies to the front lines through chaotic scenes. ........ “We disregard quality and framing, but we’re in the middle of the protesters and even the police, and people get really immersed in the scene,” she says. “The audience doesn’t want well-packaged shots—they want to feel what it’s like to be on the ground, in the most dangerous situation.” ........

“A lot of people have told me it was like a VR experience of getting beaten.”

.......... (“No one knew where the police were or how they could get to an escape route,” he told me. “So our team began planning to map out the next big rally the following week.”)......... Now Orca and his team publish dozens of maps during large demonstrations, updating positions with colors to show the location of police, “thugs,” and protesters, plus icons to signify first aid, rest, and supply stations. All of this is put together by on-the-ground volunteers who draw the information out on a blank map on their iPads, and send it to an “integrator” who compares the data with news from live streams and television stations before putting it all together and sending it out over Telegram or Apple’s AirDrop file transfer service. During one rally, an estimated 600,000 people downloaded maps put out by Orca’s team, just one of three mapping services created during the protests. ........... Then, three weeks after she watched the train station attack, Alice decided her contributions needed to become more direct. During one of the most violent weekends so far, she joined the crowd, carrying a rucksack filled with supplies: bandages, water, snacks, and filters for gas masks. When she saw a call on Telegram, she rushed forward toward police lines for the first time, opened her bag to those in need, and quickly retreated, checking Orca’s maps to avoid running into police......... She was dressed in what has become the uniform among demonstrators: black from head to toe, her face obscured by a black surgical mask and a black baseball cap.............

"This moment is our last chance to fight for Hong Kong, or the next generation won’t even know what privacy is."

........... “In the past few months people have educated themselves incredibly quickly on end-to-end encryption, only buying single-use transit cards, and the dangers of widespread surveillance” ......... many types of data Hong Kong’s telecommunications companies do not consider to be personal and protected, including a user’s geolocation and IP addresses, as well as the information on websites visited. This interpretation, which was made privately by the companies themselves and has not been challenged in court, means that police do not need a warrant to request, say, a list of subscribers who were in a certain place at a certain time........... Information collected by Hong Kong authorities could also be handed over to China, Tsui added, since there is no formal agreement defining what can and cannot be shared............. Alice does not even know the real names of several friends she’s made at the protests. When they message on Telegram, they use their aliases—all English pseudonyms. Even though they are anonymous, anyone who is arrested is cut out of the group for fear that police could compromise their phones............. With no end in sight, Lam has considered invoking emergency powers, according to local media. One of her first targets would likely be the apps that protesters use to organize. The mere suggestion was so divisive that members of Lam’s cabinet warned her against the move, and the Hong Kong Internet Service Providers Association declared that “any such restrictions, however slight originally, would start the end of the open Internet of Hong Kong.”..........

The Chinese government’s concern is that the internet is also the most likely way the Hong Kong protests could spread to the rest of the country.

........ After Lam’s announcement that she would withdraw the extradition bill, posts on Chinese social media wondered why those elsewhere in China face jail time for even a hint of dissent. ......... amid attempts by the Chinese government to deter protesters by releasing viral clips on Twitter threatening a military crackdown, there is little sign Hong Kongers are cowed. Alice feels that their collective efforts are leveling the playing field between the government and demonstrators. ......... “The government uses an old playbook, but we have created whole new ways of resisting. And if we didn’t stand up and [we] let Hong Kong become just another Chinese city, all that creativity would be snuffed out.”


Friday, September 13, 2019

Navigating The Hong Kong Protests

Xi Jinping made a rather dramatic reference to the Long March of the Mao era at one point during the trade war back and forth. Recently he has made inferences to the Cultural Revolution. Maybe he is as backward looking as Donald Trump.

When Karl Marx wrote what he wrote, capital had too much sway, labor was powerless. But that was a long time ago. After 1989 China tried to give capital more room at the table, instead of no room at the table. That led to the largest reduction of poverty in world history.

But the CCP has been miserly on political reforms. If they were to take a scientific approach to what is happening in Hong Kong, they have a wonderful opportunity to preserve one country, two systems, and to usher a new era of political reforms inside China.

That half the Hong Kong legislature in Hong Kong is unelected capitalists, why is that not a problem for the Beijing communists?

Xinhua warns 'end is coming' for Hong Kong protesters China issued a stern warning to Hong Kong protesters as well as the West on Sunday, reiterating that it will not tolerate any attempt to undermine Chinese sovereignty over the city.

China does not understand Hong Kong's leaderless movement On August 30, key pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong, including Joshua Wong and three lawmakers from the opposition camp, were arrested. After months of protests both peaceful and violent against a proposed extradition bill and police brutality, the Hong Kong government, instead of making concrete concessions, has decided to step up repression. Protesters responded with more determined action.

Xi brings in 'firefighter' Wang Qishan in bid to calm Hong Kong China's Vice President Wang Qishan, a close aide to President Xi Jinping and the former enforcer of the president's anti-corruption campaign, is believed to have played a key role in the recent developments in Hong Kong.

Trump on thinner political ice than Xi in trade war Domestic politics, however, make the U.S. president's position a lot dicier than it looks. ..... The opening salvos had come in July 2018, when Trump imposed 25% additional tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, including industrial machinery, out of the roughly $550 billion worth of products the U.S. buys from China every year. Washington launched a second barrage the following month, targeting another $16 billion worth of imports, and escalated its attacks that September by adding $200 billion in goods to the list......... The latest and fourth batch of U.S. tariffs increased the total by $110 billion to $360 billion....... And despite rampant speculation that Xi was facing growing criticism within the Communist Party, the party's secretive annual summer meeting in the seaside resort of Beidaihe offered no signs that the president was in a political bind....... Only two incumbent U.S. presidents have failed to be reelected since the end of World War II -- Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush -- and an economic downturn was a major reason in both cases......... If the economy starts to seriously suffer, with little leeway for major monetary expansion, Trump's reelection chances could come down to achieving a truce in the trade war....... Rushing to compromise would also pose risks, though, with the U.S. Congress as a whole now adopting a tough posture on China....... his penchant for surprises should not be underestimated. Frustrated with Beijing's stalling tactics, he might expand the battle from trade to currency and the financial markets. ...... In that case, Trump would head into the presidential race with his hard-line China policy intact, while pinning blame for the sputtering economy on the Fed and Beijing........ If Beijing moves to crack down on the demonstrators, using force like it did in response to the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, China could be hit with international sanctions that would squeeze its economy hard....... That would turn what was a bilateral trade dispute into an all-out cold war between the two largest economic powers, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy.

Friday, November 04, 2016

Xi Jinping: Reformer?

There is intense speculation that Xi Jinping's recent move to become "Core Leader," a title awarded posthumously to Mao, hints that he might stay beyond 10 years and might pull a Gorbachev on China. Fundamental political reform is the only way out for the straitjacket China finds itself in. A total attempt to keep the lid tight would only lead to some kind of an implosion, sooner or later. Reform would be the patriotic thing to do. China, after all, has become the largest economy in the world. Reform would be the responsible thing to do.

But the Gorbachev metaphor might not be a good one. Gorbachev hastened democratic reforms and that is to his great credit. He got called Person Of The Century by some for that. Thankfully the Cold War was over. But he neither thought through the demise of communism nor its replacement. But it is perhaps too much to ask one person to do all three things.

While Gorbachev presided over a bread lines economy, the Chinese economy is an envy to the world (minus the Beijing smog). Xi does not have to say it is not working. But he does have to say this is what is next. It can be bold reforms that are well thought out and there is a smooth transition. He has played it wise. He has concentrated tremendous power in himself. That is a lot of political capital with which to carry out reforms.

Step one would be to completely halt any and all persecution of the Falun Gong and release all the detained practitioners. Step two would be to institute free speech and freedom of religion into the Chinese constitution. Step three would be for the party to offer two candidates for each office like president, governor and mayor. The people pick one through direct vote. That could go for 10 years. Then the constitution should be ammended to allow other political parties. But China should take care to keep money out of politics. All parties should be state funded, getting money in direct proportion to votes they collect. That is something American progressives only fantasize about.

Monday, January 18, 2016

Chinese Economy Troubles

I believe China has reached a point where there is no way to avoid fundamental political reform. Either that, or the economy pays a price. But I don't see the reforms coming.

Can a state become so powerful in terms of military strength, police force, surveillance, and the size of the national economy, that it becomes immune to democratic reform or impulses? I don't believe that for a second.

Democracy emanates from a different dimension from all that physicality. It is only a matter of time before China opens up. Right now it does not look like the Chinese Communist Party wants to be that vehicle. And mass uprising is nowhere in the cards. So that leaves the option that the CCP is willing to say goodbye to double digit growth rates forever to keep its hold on power. The thing is, I am not sure the CCP is in grips even with that 7% growth rate. The turbulence could easily go out of hand. There's the slowing growth and the massive pollution.

My two favorite desires for China are (1) let the Dalai Lama in, and (2) beam broadband down from Elon Musk's internet satellites.

China is doing some good infrastructure work in places like Pakistan and Africa. So it's a mixed picture.

China’s Search For Dissidents Has Now Expanded to Foreign Countries
Since taking office in late November, President Xi has cracked down on dissent, locking up hundreds of free-thinkers and cementing his reputation as China’s most powerful leader in decades. Everyone from the nation’s top female lawyer to a moderate Muslim academic has been swept up. Most have been jailed on what human-rights experts consider suspect charges, either oversized crimes like subversion of state power or seemingly unconnected infractions such as disturbing traffic.

Xi’s campaign feels both brutal and brittle—a powerful ruling party spooked by a collection of unarmed poets, feminists and lawyers, few of whom are calling for an end to communist rule.

Xi may have come to power vowing to strengthen China’s commitment to rule of law but on Monday a group of high-profile foreign lawyers and heads of bar associations directly criticized the Chinese President for intimidating or detaining hundreds of Chinese lawyers, along with their staff and families......... Previously dissidents felt safe overseas but Beijing’s dragnet has expanded abroad to include both Chinese and Chinese-born foreign citizens. Panic is setting in among communities that once considered foreign soil safe ground. “I thought once I escaped China I would be safe,” says one Chinese dissident who was smuggled to Thailand last year and

is now being tailed by unknown Mandarin-speaking men as she waits in Bangkok

for a UNHCR hearing to determine whether she will be classified as a political refugee. “If I disappear tomorrow, you will have no doubt about who took me. The [Chinese] Communist Party is too powerful.” ...... That was the last sighting of the publisher of around half of the pulp political thrillers available in Hong Kong. Indeed, Mighty Media’s books are so popular that Asian airports stock them in prime display spaces, although spot checks at Chinese customs can get the books’ new owners in trouble. ....... Last week, the Swedish government summoned the Chinese and Thai ambassadors to answer questions about Gui’s disappearance from Thailand. ...

Chinese dissidents, particularly those in Thailand, are also nervous, given the recent deportation of the two Chinese activists, one of whom dabbled in caricatures of President Xi.

Beijing’s Overseas Kidnapping
A bookseller taken in Thailand ‘confesses’ on China state television.
Mr. Lee is a British citizen whose abduction from Hong Kong would represent an “egregious breach” of China’s treaty promises concerning civil liberties in the former British colony, Britain’s Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said this month. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi replied, in a preview of Mr. Gui’s confession, that Mr. Lee is “first and foremost a Chinese citizen.” ...... When reports of the missing booksellers surfaced, some speculated that rogue Chinese agents could have mounted a snatch-and-grab campaign without approval from higher-ups in Beijing. Mr. Gui’s televised confession suggests official knowledge and complicity. The cases represent an escalation of China’s assaults on journalism, the autonomy of Hong Kong and the rights of overseas Chinese who are citizens of other sovereign nations.


How to Discipline 90 Million People
Can China's president reform the world's largest one-party state by reforming its officials?
China’s extensive crackdown on government corruption, which has already ensnared hundreds of thousands of officials in the People’s Republic, is now spilling over the country’s borders. The State Department recently confirmed that China’s legal authorities had provided a list of 150 corrupt Chinese officials believed to be hiding in the United States, and vowed cooperation to help extradite them. That announcement came amid rumors that China’s anti-corruption czar, Wang Qishan, would visit the U.S. sometime this year, ostensibly to lead the chase overseas to catch China’s government crooks and their ill-gotten gains. ............ No one is immune, not even Communist Party leaders who once seemed untouchable. Just last Friday, Zhou Yongkang, the former security chief and retired Politburo Standing Committee member, became the highest-ranking party official to be indicted under the effort, following his arrest last December. Top military officials have come under investigation, and there are rumors a former vice president could be next. ....... State propaganda refers to the strategy as “killing tigers and swatting flies,” where the tigers are the powerful and the flies the petty officials. .......

a larger strategy to reform the very political culture of the Chinese Communist Party.

...... re-establishing the CCP’s authority over its nearly 90 million members ......... The central government can issue laws and formulate policy, but given factionalism and competition for power among officials at all levels, it has struggled to get the rank and file to implement those policies or uphold those laws. Local governments, for example, often collude with businesses to enrich themselves at the expense of the people, soliciting backlash in the form of mass protest and social unrest, and threatening the party’s power. ....... Now, with manufacturing jobs moving to Southeast Asia and growth slowing to its weakest rate in two and a half decades, Xi has publicly spoken of the need to “actively restructure the economy.” ....... Reform, however, requires the ability to enact policy. That in turn necessitates bureaucrats who follow the central government’s orders. Two common ways to deliver this kind of accountability in the modern world are through

direct democracy and an independent judiciary

. But Xi has flat-out rejected these institutional measures. ....... an apparent effort, unprecedented in the modern world, to transform the people who make up the state, rather than the structure of the state itself. He appears to be betting that transforming the moral character of officials will enable him to leave intact the institutional structure of the one-party state. But is such a feat even possible? ....... Modern-day state-building efforts in the Middle East and Africa have confirmed much of Xunzi’s thought. It is not enough to set up independent courts or to hold elections. .........

Chinese politics today exhibits a pervasive culture of patronage, factionalism, and cronyism. Or, as Xi put it in a speech in 2013, excessive bureaucratization, hedonism, and use of public funds and position for personal advancement and pleasure.

...... regulations require the official to report if he or she is to remarry or divorce, and to give reasons and justifications for the decision. ...... A 1940s rule against graft, for example, helped garner popular support for the CCP to win the civil war against the decrepit and corrupt Nationalist government; it is this rule that has been revived today to help clean up official corruption, no doubt with popular support similarly in mind. ....... Given the leadership’s apparent determination to maintain the party’s dominance, however, it is not surprising that Xi has placed the burden of reform on the officials themselves rather than the political structure they inhabit. ....... Xi may be able to avoid major institutional reforms by changing the political culture. But transforming the way government is run requires greater discussion about how government is run, and giving officials—especially lower- and mid-level officials—a greater voice. So far, Xi is only dealing with half the problem.
The opening up of Iran will mean a return to barbarity as usual
As for Iran, with the nuclear programme gone, and its iconic American prisoners released, normal levels of barbarity can now be resumed. ..... First, there is the ordinary repression: convicts – two-thirds of them drug dealers or drug users according to the UN – were being executed at the rate of three per day last year, the highest per-capita execution rate in the world. Then there’s the suppression of trade unions. Iran arrested 233 labour activists in the year to May 2015. All strikes and labour agitation are treated as threats to national security by the Revolutionary Guards, the hardline military force that enforces Islamic discipline at home while spearheading military operations abroad. Finally, there is the outright political repression that has left two presidential candidates from the “green” protests of 2009 – Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi – under house arrest, and hundreds of other human rights activists, lawyers, journalists and scientists detained. ....... With Bush, for eight years, we at least understood the deranged intent: destroy Saddam Hussein’s regime and let market forces rule. When market forces failed to rule, and al-Qaida filled the gap ........

Bush’s eight-year adventure in the Gulf could be described as a spectacular unravelling

...... Iranians took to the streets in 2009 in the first of the new-style networked protests. The movement that began in Tunisia in December 2010, swept Mubarak from office in Egypt a month later, set Bahrain on fire, deposed Gaddafi and provoked Assad into a murderous onslaught on his own people, was not in the US State Department’s script – no matter how many times supporters of these dictatorships claim it. ........

It was, fundamentally, the entry of the educated and networked youth into the politics of the Middle East that disoriented Obama.

...... even as you deal with dictators, and watch a shabby regional order emerge, you must support democracy and human rights everywhere – above all in Iran, whose young, educated population is still crying out for them.


Iran's hardliners will block economic reform
The lifting of sanctions coupled with the release of up to $100bn in frozen Iranian assets as part of the nuclear agreement will reinvigorate the Iranian economy, removing a significant obstacle to growth. Nonetheless, the road to economic development remains rocky due to highly inefficient state-controlled enterprises and the lack of transparency resulting in high levels of corruption, as evidenced by Transparency International placing the country as low as 136 out of 175 countries on its Corruption Perceptions Index based on “how corrupt a country’s public sector is perceived to be”. ........ The World Bank ranks Iran at 118, way down the list, on ‘ease of doing business’. ..... The Rouhani administration is attempting to change this by pushing for robust economic reforms, seeking to pull the Iranian economy out of isolation into a global market and to attract much needed investment from abroad. He says he wants to change a situation where Iran’s exports are almost entirely hydrocarbon commodities and where it is conducting import substitution as a policy to protect state-owned and quasi-state owned enterprises. ........ The hardliners seek an Iran that is highly authoritarian under a resistance ideology closing the country to the rest of the world, and a regional posture that is more militaristic than diplomatic. ......

On the opposite side of the spectrum, the bazaaris and the moderate camp seek an Iran driven by economic liberalisation, a loosened security state that is more conducive to foreign investment, a less militaristic regional posture that is better for trade, and a non-resistance ideology that is open to globalisation.

....... he will need to take a friendlier regional posture, which would be difficult given the current rivalry with Iran’s Arab neighbour, including Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, which is seen most intensely in the conflict in Iraq and Syria ...... part of the political capital needed for economic reform is diverted to conflict and conflict-rhetoric. ...... Iran remains an authoritarian state that is disproportionately driven by hardliners. ...... economic growth will increase from 3% in 2015 to 5% in 2016. .....

Iran’s most valuable asset – its highly educated labour force ....

....... The lack of economic reform will continue to place a heavy toll on the middle class and particularly its underemployed youth. Rising expectations will have to be met and increasing oil revenue, with sanctions lifted, will be enough for the economy to grow without forcing the issue of reform. This can end up providing more incentives not to reform the economy. ....... oil in particular can enhance inequality through the ‘Dutch disease’, in which currency inflow from the sale of hydrocarbons makes other products less competitive for export, so weakening manufacturing and increasing prices for consumers.
How to succeed in Iran: lessons from Russia and China
The economy in the Islamic republic is still largely state-owned, with much of its ‘privatised’ capital in the hands of regime-affiliated organisations
the lessons from the economies of the crumbled Soviet Union circa 1991 or gaizhi-era China over a decade later: strengthen your legal team, treat trust like a commodity, and beware of cephalopods. ...... Since the administration of economically pragmatic President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iranian governments have attempted to sell large portions of the mostly state-owned economy to “the real private sector.” But after trying out a range of ideological strategies and transferring large volumes of capital, over 80% of it ended up in the tentacles of organizations linked to the regime: banks, military enterprises, religious foundations, pension funds and populism-driven welfare projects ...... foreign investors will have to reckon with around 120 pseudo-private entities that by the estimates of former deputy industry minister Mohsen Safai Farahani account for half the country’s gross domestic product. .......

the underlying culture is not likely to change anytime soon. Nor is the country’s closed political structure.”

....... Most international banks are unlikely to touch Iran-based transactions as long as the sanctions on the country’s financial system remain in place, so companies like Chinese computer manufacturer Lenovo or French carmaker Renault rely on oil-for-product swaps and other types of barter. While these measures help meet the immediate needs of a consumer market starved for foreign products, the involved firms are often slated by the Iranian press for cutting disadvantageous deals that hinder the country’s long-term economic prospects. ...... Andreas Schweitzer, CEO of the Swiss-Iranian consultancy Arjan Capital, says

he employs a disproportionately large legal team to address the “special circumstances” of the Iranian business environment. “You have to look at Iran as a Chinese or Russian economy that is highly state-owned,” he says.

.... “You have to adjust a bit to the geopolitical weather,” he says. ...... To succeed in Iran, Schweitzer recommends raising capital locally and taking advantage of existing infrastructure and expertise. Ideally, the only imports should be upper management and know-how, he says. ...... “Like the Chinese, the Iranians love western brands ..... After years of isolation from international trends, Iranian workers lack the skills to fill middle and upper management positions. “If you needed in Russia 20 years ago 16 interviews to fill one job, you’re looking at double that in Iran,” Schweitzer says. .......

and the regime will silence hardline opponents of the nuclear deal by handing them the crumbs.”

Iran Opens for Business

Some people cannot stand good news. It troubles their fixed view of the world.

These would include Senator Marco Rubio, the Republican presidential candidate, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who were cast into a huff by the confirmed reversal of Iran’s nuclear program and its release of several Americans, including Jason Rezaian of The Washington Post. ............ Toughness is no more than empty aggression when it will not admit to misjudgment.

Diplomacy delivers.

..... Rezaian is coming home after a year and a half of groundless imprisonment. ...... Its advanced centrifuges have been slashed from over 1,000 to zero. Its low-enriched uranium stockpile has been cut to 660 pounds from over 19,000. ...... The plutonium route to a bomb has been cut off. Iran is subject to what President Obama called “the most comprehensive, intrusive inspection regime ever negotiated to monitor a nuclear program.” The country’s “break-out” time — the period needed to rush for a bomb — has been extended to a year from two to three months. ......

The trauma-induced Iranian-American psychosis, ongoing since the birth of the Islamic Republic in 1979, has been overcome. .... The world’s 18th-largest economy is about to rejoin the world at a time when the sinking global economy sure could use a jolt.

...... Iran is much further from a nuclear weapon because of the courageous diplomacy of Obama and Kerry and Zarif and the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, who all confronted hostile constituencies at home to get the deal done. ...... A big nation is open for business again, back in the global financial system and world oil market. ......

Revolutionary Guard hard-liners have not drunk the Kool-Aid at the Rouhani-Zarif school of diplomacy.

...... Iran, 37 years from its revolution, is delicately poised between hard-liners and reformers, neither of whom can dictate the country’s course, each of whom need the other for now. Imminent parliamentary elections may indicate which camp is ascendant. ......

it is hard to argue that greater contact with the world will be bad for the large, modernizing, highly educated younger generation. Iran is a pro-American country with a tired anti-American refrain. It has a successful diaspora community ready to help revive the country — if allowed to do so.

...... The breakthrough with Iran is Obama’s greatest foreign policy achievement, one that may have a transformative effect on the region. ..... That potential is what has American allies from Saudi Arabia to Israel so perturbed. They preferred the status quo. .....

The country is not “an oil-soaked rentier state,” like some of its neighbors, but a “regional power with an industrial economy”

...... Its population of 80 million is well-educated, its oil and gas reserves enormous. The country’s pent-up need for foreign investment may amount to $1 trillion. Iran, it concluded, is “preparing for takeoff.” .... Try saying the word Iran without saying the word “nuclear.” It’s time.
As Iran hails a historic deal, Saudi Arabia looks on with anxiety and irritation
The lifting of sanctions against the Saudis’ longtime enemy, in part pursued by its US ally, is the latest episode in a centuries-old narrative of mistrust
it watched with anxiety and irritation as Barack Obama pursued the historic agreement, complaining of the appeasement of an untrustworthy enemy at the expense of a loyal American ally. ..... the notion that Tehran controls three Arab capitals, as well as exerting subversive influence in Sunni-ruled but Shia-majority Bahrain and in Yemen, both in Saudi Arabia’s backyard. ......

“The Saudis talk about poor starving Syrians but never about poor starving Yemenis,” quipped a foreign observer. “And it’s the same, in reverse, with the Iranians.”

..... the feeling that for all their wealth the Saudis have nothing to match Iran’s highly-developed covert capabilities. ...... “[Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei traded a bomb he didn’t have for a document that gave his IRGC carte blanche in [the]region, and stripped the P5 + 1 [UN security council members and Germany] of any leverage over Iran,” said the Saudi analyst Mohammed Alyahya. ...... Jubeir, an articulate spokesman for his country, has

a clever line about Iran needing to decide whether it is a country or a cause

– a reminder that the Islamic Revolution of 1979 was indeed a watershed for the entire Middle East. In the west the perception is that Iran is becoming a post-revolutionary society seeking normality and moderation at home and abroad, despite still being ruled by a theocratic supreme leader. The Saudis flatly reject that view.
When China Stumbles
The basic problem is that China’s economic model, which involves very high saving and very low consumption, was only sustainable as long as the country could grow extremely fast, justifying high investment. This in turn was possible when China had vast reserves of underemployed rural labor. But that’s no longer true, and China now faces the tricky task of transitioning to much lower growth without stumbling into recession. ....... rapidly rising debt, much of it owed to poorly regulated “shadow banks,” and a threat of financial meltdown. ...... the Chinese situation looks fairly grim — and new numbers have reinforced fears of a hard landing, leading not just to a plunge in Chinese stocks but to sharp declines in stock prices worldwide. ...... Yes, China is a big economy, accounting in particular for about a quarter of world manufacturing, so what happens there has implications for all of us. And China buys more than $2 trillion worth of goods and services from the rest of the world each year. But it’s a big world, with a total gross domestic product excluding China of more than $60 trillion. ...... while

China itself is in big trouble

, the consequences for the rest of us should be manageable. ...... Europe and the United States export to each other only a small fraction of what they produce, yet they often have recessions and recoveries at the same time. Financial linkages may be part of the story, but one also suspects that there is

psychological contagion: Good or bad news in one major economy affects animal spirits in others.

........ my best guess is still that things won’t be that bad —

nasty in China, but just a bit of turbulence elsewhere.

And I really, really hope that guess is right, because we don’t seem to have a plan B anywhere in sight.

Wednesday, July 08, 2015

Political Reform For China

China is a one party state. It is a wounded civilization. How would you feel if you were Mayor of town generation after generation, and suddenly they conspire against you make you the town janitor? China is the emperor who is no longer the emperor in the movie The Last Emperor, or at least was until about 1990. Now the Mayor is back in town.



China is an ancient civilization and you have to respect that if you want to deal with it.

So it is a matter of pride. China is not about to become a multi-party democracy where the communist party is no longer above the state. But there still is need for political reform.

One idea would be that the communist party would select two people for every office, be it Mayor or Governor, or President, and the people, through adult franchise, would vote and pick one of the two. Both candidates would get equivalent funds from the party for campaigning.

This would be bold, this would retain the one party state, this would be a major, visible move.

Another, my favorite, is, Mr. Xi, "tear down this wall" you have wrapped around the Internet.

China: A Complex Picture
Kunming Kolkata
Bihar@2025 = $240 Billion
१५% Growth Rake कैसे Achieve करें
मोदी और सौर्य उर्जा
A Genuine World Government
मोदी, नीतिश, नेपाल, नेपालके मधेसी और मैं
So Much For The Butterfly Effect
Modi: A Force Of Nature
Elon Musk's Hyperloop And India
न्यु यर्क मेरा होमटाउन
Climate Change, Terrorism, Poverty, World Government

Nearly 25% of Chinese stocks have stopped trading
China's stock markets have now lost $3.25 trillion. To put that in perspective, that's more than the size of France's entire stock market and about 60% of Japan's market.
Greek crisis is nothing compared to China
Why does this matter to people outside of China? A rapidly sinking stock market is often a sign of an economy in turmoil. Remember 2008? And 2000? .... U.S. banks have nearly ten times as much exposure to China than Greece.