Showing posts with label European Union. Show all posts
Showing posts with label European Union. Show all posts

Saturday, March 05, 2022

Ukraine Is Putin's Brexit With Too Many Dead Bodies

Russia did not go to war with the US, or Ukraine. Russia declared war on China. Russia is not competing to be number one. It is trying its best to suggest it is still number two. But that spot was long taken by China. The Ukraine misadventure is Russia trying to suggest one last time that, no, it's not China, it is Russia still.

Brexit was hubris. A former world power reduced to being an island that itself was on the verge of disintegrating. Ukraine is also hubris. Only there were no dead bodies to go with Brexit. And Brexit can be easily reversed. This was is the end of the road for Putin. And if he and his regime do not quickly exit the scene due to public pressure in the streers, the Russian economy, already in a bad shape, is going one major step down. Russians will be eating bread and drinking vodka, and there will be not much else.

Singapore paved the way for China. Deng Xiaoping learned a lot from Singapore. He had the humility to admit China was in a poor shape. Putin leacks that humility. Ukraine was his Singapore, though not as arrived, but still a few steps ahead of Russia in embracing true democracy, and a proper free market economy.

The Soviet Communist Party got ousted in 1991. But the KGB remained. It is the KGB clique that runs all aspects of Russian life. That is no way to run a major country.

Now it is the KGB's time to go.

What Russia needs is people out in the streets of Moscow to topple this regime.



Ukraine invasion: did China known about Putin’s plans, or was Beijing tricked? It remains unclear what Beijing knew and when about Moscow’s plans, but its implied support for the Kremlin is damaging China’s interests ...... Observers are divided but there are growing doubts about the competence of Chinese intelligence gathering and strategic decision-making .

China-backed AIIB puts Russia and Belarus lending ‘on hold’ over war in Ukraine Russia is a founding member and shareholder of the Beijing-based lender, holding a 6.7 per cent stake ....... China is the biggest member, with a 30 per cent holding in the AIIB, which is seen as a potential rival to the World Bank ............ The China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has announced that “all activities relating to Russia and Belarus are on hold and under review” due to Russia’s war on Ukraine. “As the war in Ukraine unfolds, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) extends its thoughts and sympathy to everyone affected. Our hearts go out to all who are suffering,” read a statement published on the website of the Beijing-based lender. ........... the bank, which was founded in 2016 and seen by some as a potential rival to the US-backed World Bank. .......... With Russia facing isolation from the multilateral system, there has been intense scrutiny of China’s reaction. ......... a Chinese state bank saw a “surge in inquiries from Russian firms wanting to open new accounts”. ......... Moscow has hiked interest rates, temporarily closed the stock market and imposed strict capital controls. ...... the European Union said it was considering “the possibility of removing [most favoured nation] treatment to Russia on the basis of the WTO national security exception”. .

Putin blows up Brexit While the EU-UK relationship has been acrimonious since the latter left the bloc, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has seen a rapprochement. ..... While the years following the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union have been characterized by one-upmanship, failures to communicate and outright disagreements, the days since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have seen politicians and officials on both sides of the Channel come together to coordinate their response. ....... And despite grave predictions from many on the pro-EU side of the Brexit debate that the U.K. would now be marginalized on the world stage, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has taken his place alongside counterparts in Washington and Brussels as the West grapples with how to respond. Britain, with its military and intelligence strength, and as one of the economies where Russian oligarchs have for decades sought to wash their dirty money, is well-placed to play a key role. .......... NATO, the G7 and the E3 group comprising France, Germany and the U.K. ........ Contact between senior British ministers and the European Commission is now frequent, according to diplomats. ...... Brexit doesn’t change the fact that we are liberal democracies that live in peace, freedom and security, and obviously when that’s threatened, Brexit doesn’t affect our desire to work together at all.” ......... The first British official quoted above said sanctions against Russia issued by Western allies are “all pretty aligned” despite some slight differences among the packages, and it “doesn’t really make sense to say that one side is going faster than the other.” ........ many believe Brexit disputes will resurface with the same strength of feeling once the heat of this crisis is over. .

The fighting is in Ukraine, but risk of World War III is real Conflict could easily escalate into a direct confrontation between Russia and the West, officials and analysts warn. .......... senior Western government officials, diplomats and military analysts acknowledge that there is now a grave danger that the United States and other NATO allies could be drawn into the war — at virtually any moment, as the result of any number of scenarios. ...... “One is a mistake,” said a Washington-based analyst whose work is partly financed by the U.S. government. “They lob a missile into Poland. That is not impossible and then it very quickly escalates. But we have to respond. We can’t not respond.” “Or the outcry against the crimes against humanity is so strong that we feel compelled to take what we think is a limited and judicious action,” the analyst said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. “The enforcement of a no-fly zone means killing Russians,” the analyst said. “Anything that we do that results in killing Russians puts us into World War III.” ........ The shelling and a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the early hours of Friday morning provided yet another frightening example of the type of emergency scenario that could ensnare a broader international coalition in Putin’s war: to urgently prevent a global catastrophe. But other more mundane scenarios abound. Already, on Wednesday Russian planes violated Swedish air space multiple times. An Estonian cargo ship sunk off the coast of Odesa, apparently after hitting a mine. Any such incident could easily escalate..........

“Russia is ready to use a thermonuclear bomb in Ukraine”

....... “Today the problem is not only Donbas, the problem is not only Ukraine — what is at stake is the stability in Europe and the whole international order” .......... Officials and diplomats who are experts on Russia say the effort to portray the conflict as Ukraine’s war misses the key point: Putin has attacked Ukraine precisely because it chose a path toward the EU and NATO. Fighting Ukraine, they say, is a proxy for fighting the West. ......... Some believe the conflict can only be resolved if Putin’s complaints about the U.S. and NATO are resolved. Until then, he will continue the war, seeking to conquer or destroy the country, and making the peace negotiations with Ukrainian officials of little significance. ............. That calculation, of course, presumes Putin choose self-preservation over nuclear Armageddon. ........ the situation in Ukraine will get far worse in the coming days ........ As Putin realizes that fury among the Ukrainian population means he will lose politically, no matter the military outcome, there is a heightened risk he will simply seek to destroy Ukraine, flattening its cities and towns just as Russian forces obliterated the Chechen capital of Grozny. ........ And the devastating barrage of severe sanctions that are punishing the Russian economy will almost certainly remain in place, giving Putin little incentive to back away from his goal of conquering Ukraine and toppling its government. Putin chose war fully knowing there would be severe economic consequences — a calculation he made previously with the invasion and annexation of Crimea, which led to sanctions and steep absorption costs. ......... “The Union is not at war with Russia,” the second official said. “We are in line with the U.N. Charter.” The second official added: “But we need to help Ukraine because Ukraine is being attacked and has the right to self-defense.” ....... by denying their centrality in the dispute, Western powers were failing to seize on an opportunity to unite the three Slavic nations that Putin often talks about — Ukraine, Russia and Belarus — but against the Russian autocrat, in support of democracy. .......... “It’s like we’re not understanding that we’re a participant in this war already — not because we put ourselves there, not because we were looking for this war, not because of any decision that NATO made or any individual bilateral partners of Ukraine made, but because Vladimir Putin is fighting a war against us,” McKew said. “And if we show up to the war, it will end sooner and faster with less people dead, and that’s really the decision we have to make now.” ........ Putin is known to harbor deep anger over the death of the Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, who was taken prisoner, humiliated, beaten and killed while begging his captors for mercy. The scenes were filmed on a mobile phone. ......... the Russian president would go to any lengths to avoid Gaddafi’s fate, and that suggestions Putin should be tried as a war criminal could trigger him. ........ the talk about trying him before the International Criminal Court,” the analyst said. “That’s kind of Gaddafi territory. You have to be real careful about putting a dictator who still has his finger on a nuclear button in a Gaddafi mindset.”
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Sunday, February 27, 2022

Madman Putin And The Nuclear Sword: The Putin Regime Must Collapse

This military misadventure has no support whatsoever inside Russia and no success in Ukraine. It is only a matter of time before the people of Russia proper brave the streets. The time for Putin to not invade Ukraine has passed. He crossed a line that he can no longer uncross. 

The thing about the nuclear sword is you do not wave it. When you wave it, you are a madman who waved it at his own people. That is a no-no. The Putin regime has nowhere to go from here but to a collapse. The color revolutions will also now color Russia. Within a proper democratic structure, the Russian economy will surge and take its rightful place. The Russian minorities in the Russian neighborhood will earn dignity and prosper. Russia itself is many nationalities and will see genuine federalism so it is no longer an imperial setup run from Moscow. 

But the Putin regime must go now. That is the only exit strategy available to him now. The economic sanctions must get the work done. 

A newly installed democratic regime in Russia should steer the country towards elections to a constituent assembly to write the country a new constitution that meets all standards of a modern democracy. Never again another Putin. A democratic Russia must work with the United States to reduce its nuclear arsenal by 90% by the end of the decade. The weapons-grade uranium belongs at the nuclear energy facilities around the world. 

Enough of Madman Putin. Get him off the world stage. 






Sunday, December 15, 2019

Trade War: US, EU, China, Japan

The trade war is a proven recipe for a global recession or worse and possible political mayhem. Trump's trade war with the EU bores ill for global trade because the EU has none of the China issues, supposedly. Bilateral trade is a primitive concept. It is like ditching digital money and going back to silver coins.

A global depression would create a new wave of fascism across the planet. Irrationality will come to rule.

The only hope is that all this saber-rattling is posturing and will soon give way to common sense. But there are no such signs yet on the horizon.

The idea that every country and every group of countries have been unfair to the US on trade ...... the whole idea of "fair trade" has been that the US has been unfair to the rest of the world, especially to the poorest countries. Racist white nationalism will also have you believe that you feel sorry for the whites because they have suffered so much from racism.

Brexit? Aexit?

The sensible thing to do would be to attempt WTO reform. Killing the WTO takes us back to the 1930s. So far the global economy's resilience built through trade has held. But that resilience can stretch only so much.

Trump's trade temper tantrums are insanely destructive. And his traditionally pro-trade party is going all the way with him. It is strange. This might not be the first time politics trumps sound economic theory.

A trade war with Europe would be larger and more damaging than Washington’s dispute with China Data from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative shows that in 2018, the U.S. imported $683.9 billion of EU goods and $557.9 billion from China. ..... There have already been tariffs on European steel and aluminum — which led the bloc to impose duties of 25% on $2.8 billion of U.S. products in June 2018, and, there’s an ongoing dispute regarding Airbus and Boeing — but experts believe a wider spat with Europe would be much more damaging than the current tit-for-tat with China. ....... “In 2018, the U.S. exported more than three times more to the EU than to China,” Hense said, adding that the region could therefore hit back hard against Washington. ..... “The rules of international trade, which we have developed over the years hand-in-hand with our American partners, cannot be violated without a reaction from our side” ...... Both economies are slowing down, and the cyclical effect of the tariffs is likely to be pretty strong ..... Speaking at the U.S. Senate in mid-July, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that “crosscurrents, such as trade tensions and concerns about global growth, have been weighing on economic activity and the outlook.” .......

the business models of multinational firms is in danger as a result of a potential U.S.- EU trade war

...... “Much of the (EU-U.S.) trade takes place within firms rather than between them … (as a result) when you impose tariffs between the U.S. and Europe, you end up raising the prices for consumers and complicating the way goods are assembled in both places, as in the U.S.-China case, but you also end up disrupting the profitability of the business models for large multinationals,” he said. ...... “Since many, if not most of those large multinationals are American, this is going to put a further drag on the U.S. economy” ....... “A trade war between the U.S. and Europe would be more challenging than a trade war between the U.S. and China because it would weaken U.S. multinationals, reduce the size of the markets U.S. firms can access, and create incentives for U.S. firms to divest from their foreign assets and so unleash further foreign competition”.....“In other words, it would undo all the structural advantages that successive U.S. administrations created since the end of the Second World War”


How Trump May Finally Kill the WTO

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Negotiating With Terrorists

English: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 1...
English: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 1996 - Peres, Arafat & Schwab (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. Arafat said that. What is ISIS? Is it religious fervor? Is it a state? Is it mafia? Is it a terrorist organization? Is it organized crime? Is it Islamic revival? Different people can have different opinions.

ISIS took responsibility for Brussels, as for Paris before that. Both times it has claimed it was merely getting even for what is being done to it in its own territory. That back and forth only ends up in a much bigger war.

There is a saying in democracies. Never negotiate with terrorists. Those whose only ways are the ways of violence are not seeking political solutions. And so don't negotiate.

I think it is possible to negotiate, but only if ISIS were to agree to a wholesale ceasefire. If ISIS were to cease all plots of global violence, if ISIS were to cease all acts of violence in its own territory (some have reported small scale genocide), if ISIS were to cease all acts of sex crimes, if ISIS were to accept mediation over the same, if ISIS were to allow international observers who would oversee that the ceasefire indeed is being respected, then negotiations are possible. Remember, no political issues have been discussed yet. This would be a ceasefire whose only basic requirement is that all violence and all sex crimes to an end. If ISIS could do this much, it might even be possible to carve out a new country for the territory that ISIS holds.

That country's boundaries would be a political decision taken collectively by all parties. The current line of control could end up the final boundary. As to governance in that territory, there would be need for a constitution. Elections can be held to a constituent assembly. The only rule would be the constitution may not clash with the Human Rights Charter, and to that end there would be international judicial oversight. Other than that there would be no rules. Maybe ISIS will become a political party. Its armed members will get pulled into the country's police and army. Maybe ISIS will emerge the largest and the ruling party.

Pan Arabia is an option. If all Arab countries attempt a political and economic union, then why not? But that would be a non-violent, political act. If Europe is any example, the process is not easy, and it is supposed to take time.

Islam is a valid religion. It is as valid as Christianity. But any message against peace, justice and kindness are invalid in all religions.

ISIS in its current form comes across as a mindless, fascist, blasphemous, criminal organization. There are lawful uses of force. Currently ISIS can legitimately be at its receiving end. But a ceasefire could change that. Is there a mediator that ISIS would accept?



Monday, November 10, 2014

Immigration As FDI

English: Foreign direct investment incoming in...
English: Foreign direct investment incoming in Jordan (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
This is even more true of America. If there were zero immigration, the American economy would stagnate. The American economy needs a nonstop supply of new immigrants to stay vibrant. But the immigration debate has been poisoned by racists who defy all logic to try and turn new immigrants into scapegoats.

What have the immigrants ever done for us?
between 1995 and 2011 the migrants made a positive contribution of more than £4 billion ($6.4 billion) to Britain, compared with an overall negative contribution of £591 billion for native Britons. ...... it is likely that many recent migrants will return home, to enjoy their less productive later years—when they may cost the state more in terms of health care, for instance. They also argue that the youth of many recent arrivals means that they are at the beginning of their careers—and may be underemployed because of a lack of language skills, for example—so have not yet reached their full economic potential. The contributions of those who stay in Britain may well increase. It is a new form of foreign direct investment.

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Challenges To The Nation State

European Union
European Union (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The nation state has not been around forever, just like democracy has not been. And so the fact that it is being challenged should not surprise us. These are growing pains.

One major challenge is coming from technology. The individual is greatly empowered through technology, and so the nation state's space needs to shrink. But the nation state is refusing to be a happy, willing partner.

Another challenge is coming from globalization and the redrawing of national boundaries. Europe is a fine example. Europe has the ultimate in infrastructure. It has the roads and the trains and the communications technology. But old cultural identities have not gone away. There are identity movements threatening to break up several countries in Europe right now. I am not sure that is bad news. That is the nation state feeling the pressure.

Scotland is a good example. If Scotland breaks away, I think that will be a vote for the European Union. Defense and monetary policies are best served through larger structures like the European Union, India and the United States. But cultural identities need bigger expressions. That is only healthy.

I don't agree with the methods of the ISIS (at all), but maybe the World War I political boundaries in the Arab world are not sacrosanct after all. Maybe it is good if the Kurds break away. Iraq's boundaries perhaps need to be reimagined.

Sri Lanka is the most literate nation in South Asia. But it has the most complex ethnic problem of anywhere in the world. There has to be peaceful options where an oppressed minority can get justice when a unitary state's majoritarian government is not willing to act fair.

China is another challenge to the nation state. This nation state has lifted more people out of poverty than any other in world history. Give them some credit. Fundamental political reforms are long overdue. I envision a future for China where it has become a multi-party democracy, where it is federal, and Tibet and Taiwan are both part of it. But I feel China can teach America a thing or two about campaign finance reform. When you don't take money out of politics, your democracy is more than a little bit screwed.

Immigration reform failure in America is another challenge to the nation state. America is not keeping up. That is bad news.

Scotland peacefully separating has to become a model for many other parts of the world. If Scotland should move away from London and closer to Brussels, that will be an exercise in deeper, larger political integration. I am all for that.

Saturday, November 26, 2011

The Real Story Behind The European Mess

Flag of the British Indian Ocean TerritoryImage via WikipediaThe market is sending strong signals.

The Europeans did the economic union thing, and they did the single currency thing. But they thought they all could still be all these various sovereign nations.

And the market is saying no to that.

The economic union and the single currency needed to be followed with a political union. The Europeans needed to work on that years ago. Not attempting a political union was a mistake. And the Europeans are paying a price.

And if they are not going to go for the political union the economic union is going to unravel. The single currency could fall apart.

This storm is major.
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