Showing posts with label Communist Party of China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Communist Party of China. Show all posts

Sunday, March 06, 2016

Free Speech And China

Free speech doesn't mean careless talk^ - NARA...
Free speech doesn't mean careless talk^ - NARA - 535383 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I have tried to look at this issue with an open mind, but you can't argue against your own basic beliefs.

I don't have a very good idea of what it is like to live inside China. But the impression I get is, as long as you don't criticize the Chinese Communist Party, they leave you alone. So if you don't talk politics, what do you talk about? Sports? Movies?

Is it possible to imagine government work as utility? When was the last time you made comments about electricity? It's just there in the background. You wouldn't even notice unless it's not there. It is not an active part of your mindspace. Is it like that?

I guess the suggestion seems to be, if you want to talk politics, join the party, and rise up the ranks, it is mostly meritocratic. You have to first learn and know what you are talking about.

China grew pretty rapidly from 1990 on for two decades. In 1990 India was slightly ahead of China in per capita income. Look at them now. Is India handicapped for being a democracy? I believe not. And Modi is about to prove it.

China is not a Saddam style dictatorship. The party has pretty sophisticated structures to delve into policy issues. The leadership changes every 10 years like at General Electric.

So is there free speech in commerce, science and technology? China has done impressive work in those spaces, perhaps not possible without free speech.

On the other hand, when you blow up a satellite in space just because and create space debris, or when you genetically engineer in ways that scares people, is that someone riding a motorbike without a helmet on?

Like someone once said, I am a free speech bigot. But the proof is in the pudding.

It is remarkable that China has lifted more people out of poverty than any power in history. And when a country like China finally gets its acts together, it seems to be able to tap into its thousands of years of history with ease and make up for lost time, and end up with some advantages.

But the per capita income in the US is 55K, that in China one seventh of that. That is a pretty huge gap that might take decades to overcome. But could it ever be overcome? Without free speech? Blanket free speech?

China has mostly played catch up. But if China is a legitimate alternate system, could it create the industries of tomorrow before America? If it could then it could suggest, even before achieving per capita income parity, that it is indeed an alternate system that works.

China is the reason the world did not get into a really bad shape in 2008 and 2009. The US and China mostly act like mature powers. There is some military tension here and there, especially around the South China Sea, but then how else would either justify huge military expenditures? That tussle might be internal to China.

In the US the Internet is the newest frontier for free speech where anything goes, and Julia Roberts feels hated, but in China they have managed to use the Internet to curb free speech like never before.

China has become a bigger economy than the US, per capita income aside, and the state owned firms in China exceed $13 trillion in value, and with the political monopoly that the CCP has, does it become harder for the country to truly catch up and move towards a 50K per capita income?

There is the philosophy of free speech, there is the concreteness of the new industries of tomorrow, and there is just bread and butter, basic infrastructure, some of which China has been building far from its borders.

If India were to grow at double digit rates for 20 years, that would make for an interesting comparison. Because India is a rambunctious democracy. Indians have opinions! Indians haggle when they go grocery shopping. Indians will show up for a political rally for no rhyme or reason. Both Microsoft and Google have Indian CEOs.

China will more likely see internal reform than go the Soviet way. But how long before that happens is anyone's guess. Does it happen when the per capita income hits 20K?

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

South China Sea: Early Thoughts

Facing the South China Sea
Facing the South China Sea (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

  • America or India or Japan do not need the South China Sea. For China it's lifeline. You could practically choke the Chinese economy by disrupting this sea lane. And to make that point, China is building a $40 billion road through Pakistan to get to the Arabian Sea as an alternate route. It is not a legitimate alternate route. Land is more expensive than sea. The Chinese economy is mostly along the South China Sea. In western China there is desert. From western China the core China is literally a continent away. The road being built in Pakistan is a call for empathy. 
  • China could be close to being an alternate political system. As long as a country can create respect and protection for free speech, it is possible even to have a one party democracy. China might move in that direction. If China can evolve to respect free speech, and if the Chinese Communist Party can offer two candidates for every major office, like president, governor and mayor, that ordinary Chinese then pick from through adult franchise, then it might actually end up with a better political system than what America has. 
  • But the small countries surrounding the South China Sea don't have the luxury to empathize. It probably feels like a 800 pound gorilla is asking a mouse for empathy. 
  • As long as direct confrontation can be avoided, and channels of communication kept open, and all the major powers can show adult behavior, the South China Sea is actually a great way to build a meaningful positive relationship between America, China, Japan and India. The tussle, handled well, could be big country therapy. Because there is some healing that needs to happen. Ask how Modi feels about Britain. That is how Xi Jinping feels about Japan. Only Japan had Hiter, as far as the Chinese are concerned. Starving a people is not in the same league as gassing them. Churchill starved. Hitler gassed. 
  • For China it might be less about real estate, and more about an iron guarantee that the sea lane will not be disrupted. 
  • As for the islands, while they stay disputed, who has current control over them? Is there a catalogue? That was rhetorical. I am sure there is. Well, that's a start. 
  • The 12 nautical miles is a beautiful thing. A country has 12 nautical miles from its shores. Beyond that is international waters. Even if every island in the South China Sea ends up with clear, uncontested ownership, no matter which way they get decided, that still leaves the sea lanes open. And that's the key thing. 
  • There can be a process that all powers big and small can agree to. And that judicial process could take its time to decide on the final borders. 
  • By the way, that is also true for the India-China land border. The final border has not been finalized. 
  • All of the South China Sea can not belong to China any more than all of the Arabian Sea can belong to India, or any country. That goes against the 12 nautical miles rule. 
  • Just like the solution in Kashmir is to turn the Line Of Control into the final boundary and then tone down the tension enough to make the border meaningless, perhaps to the point of a South Asian economic union. Perhaps countries should keep islands they have and beyond that respect international law. The sea is globally shared, just like every other sea. 
  • The logic of the solution is the easy part. The hard part is the complex geometry that leads to it, step by step. 
  • Only in Kashmir there is no oil and gas. 
  • Forget building islands, if the tensions could be nullified, this might be the best place in the world to build ocean cities. As for oil and gas, think solar. The world is fast moving to solar. The ocean cities could run entirely on solar. 
  • The South China Sea tension might last as long as the China-Taiwan tension. The sea is a good outlet to the tension. It has to be managed until it is resolved. 
  • Who owns the Gulf Of Mexico? Or the North Sea? Or the Red Sea? Or the Bay Of Bengal? Or the Japan Sea
  • I guess this is a pretty good place where America gets to make itself useful.