Showing posts with label Bharatiya Janata. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bharatiya Janata. Show all posts

Friday, March 21, 2014

Modi Has Made Some Impressive Moves

English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World E...
English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World Economic Forum in India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
"I have given you free mixie grinders, goats, cows, gold for engagement ceremonies, washing machines, cycles and fans."
- Jayalalita

BJP announces six-party alliance in Tamil Nadu

He has stayed away from explosive topics like religion. He has stayed focused on development issues.

He gave himself an early start.

He has run a national campaign to the point he is the only one running for Prime Minister. Others hold desires, but no one else is officially running.

He has held massive rallies and all over the country too. Other than the vote count itself, nothing gives you gravitas like massive rallies. This has helped him clinch allies.

He has by far the best social media operation. He has learned from the grassroots ways of the Aam Aadmi Party.

He has worked hard to rope in allies.

He has competed against Mulayam in Uttar Pradesh. And it looks like he is winning. Mulayam can not get fewer seats than Modi in UP and still claim to be a PM candidate.

He has competed against Nitish in Bihar. If the polls are misleading and he is not leading, he sure is competitive.

Looks like he is now competing hard against Jayalalita in Tamilnadu. And this is a state in the South where the BJP has been known more for its absence than anything else. Two big rallies in Chennai have done the trick.

One by one he is out to knock out all the Third Front PM candidates, and there are a bunch of them.

The Congress is in a free fall after a decade in power. And Modi is competing hard against the leading Third Front candidates.

If Modi manages to get the BJP past the 200 mark, he might become unstoppable. But right now I am not predicting he will.

He has an impressive life story, selling tea and all. He has an impressive economic record in Gujrat. He is not a high caste person by birth. That has appeal.

Modi is my second choice for PM. I do think Nitish is better. But then in a democracy it is not who is the most qualified, it is about who gets the most votes. I do admit to a Bihar bias, and for me Godhra is not an issue because the Supreme Court of India says it is not an issue. It is that Nitish' economic record is far superior.


A vote for Modi could make India more Chinese
The election frontrunner is more about making the economic pie bigger than slicing it up fairly ..... Whether the planners in Beijing are overseeing the biggest rural-urban migration in human history or building the world’s longest high-speed rail network faster than you can say “tickets please”, there is a sense of purpose to everything they do. India – democratic, federal, chaotic – has never been able to pull off anything like that speed of execution. ....... what if Indians voted to become more like China? That is one plausible interpretation of the seemingly decisive swing in electoral support towards Narendra Modi, Gujarat’s chief minister and a prime ministerial candidate with Chinese characteristics. If nothing else, Mr Modi, whose leadership style brooks little opposition, has a reputation for getting things done. His supporters, including most of the country’s business leaders, who have flocked to Gujarat to pay homage, praise his decisiveness and hatred of red tape. ........ Modinomics is the triumph of implementation over prevarication. ...... Like Deng Xiaoping, who departed from Communist ideology with his pragmatic entreaty to “let some people get rich first”, Mr Modi is more about making the economic pie bigger than slicing it up fairly. ...... Manmohan Singh’s Congress administration .. has prioritised redistribution over expansion. Its profligacy on subsidies and social programmes, charge detractors, has obliged the central bank to tighten monetary policy, thereby choking growth. ........ Sadly for Congress, its redistributive policies are seen to have failed even by those who are supposed to have benefited. ......rich and poor Indians, educated and non-educated, urban and rural, want a switch to Mr Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party by a hefty majority. Fully seven in 10 are dissatisfied with the way things are going, and 63 per cent favour a BJP administration over a Congress one. No fewer than 78 per cent have a favourable view of Mr Modi, with just 16 per cent disapproving. ........Asked which party would do a better job helping the poor, 54 per cent had faith in the BJP, with only 21 per cent selecting Congress. That is surprising given that Congress has funded a food-guarantee programme covering almost two-thirds of the population and a rural employment guarantee scheme ensuring 100 days of subsidised work per household. Similarly, asked which party would be better at controlling price rises, another crucial concern for poor people, the tally was 55 per cent in favour of Mr Modi’s BJP against 17 per cent for Congress. ......... Part of Mr Modi’s attraction is that, by sheer force of will, he may be able to override some of the checks and balances of Indian democracy and introduce some of the clearheadness of growth-driven China ....... Under a Modi administration, the hope is, land will be cleared, permissions will be granted, and roads and other infrastructure will be built. In this cheerful scenario – far too optimistic, according to his many detractors – he will do for India in its entirety what he has been able to achieve for Gujarat.
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Monday, March 17, 2014

Indian Surveys Are Off

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंस...
हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
India is the largest and most interesting democracy on the planet, no doubt about it. It is also cutting edge in many ways. India has had a Sikh Prime Minister and a Sikh army chief, not to say Muslim presidents, and a woman Prime Minister. That is like America having a Filipino president and a Puerto Rican whatever. And when Nitish takes Bihar’s growth rate to 15 per cent, you know he is beating China, and Bihar is not even a coastal, industrial state.

But that cutting edge thing does not seem to be happening with the Indian polls. In 2004 the surveys showed the BJP coming back to power. Instead Manmohan Singh became Prime Minister. The surveys were off also in 2009. This time I do think there is a Modi wave, but it is a wave in that it will take the BJP from about 100 seats to 200 seats. When you double your seat count, it can be called a wave. But there are surveys that show Nitish Kumar getting five seats. How do you explain that? His job approval rating in Bihar is close to 70%.

Recently I came across a survey that claimed the BJP was set to get half the seats in the South. That is when I threw the towel. That is not possible. The BJP has no presence in the South. How could it end up with half the seats in the South?

If anything the polls and the surveys have added further mystery to the process. You know no one knows for sure what’s going on. If you give 200 seats to the BJP, and 100 seats to the Congress, that leaves 245 seats to the rest. And the Congress is already giving hints it will stop the BJP at any cost, even if that means supporting the so-called Third Front.

Only Nitish is now calling it the First Front. It is obvious there is a need for a new name. If you are going to build a coalition where the Congress is itself a junior ally in power, you cannot call it the Third Front. Mamata calls it the tired front.

India is such a large democracy, and most Indians are so rural, you have to ask for the methodologies in those surveys. Who are these pollsters calling? And what are they asking? What is their sample size? There was a sting operation a few weeks back that showed all the leading polling agencies were happy tweaking the poll results for the highest bidder. That is like when the search engines before Google put you at the top if you gave them money. There is also an upper caste bias against people like Nitish. And Indian media has been slower to change than Indian political leadership. Indian media is still upper caste dominated. And then there is the corporate bias. The big media houses are owned by the big Indian corporate interests who threw their lot behind Modi a long time ago.

There are two Indians who speak amazing Hindi. One is Amitabh. Another is Nitish. I just love watching both of them speak Hindi on YouTube.

I admitted to my Bihar bias a long time ago. But that does not change the fact that Nitish is the far superior candidate. And that is why I support him. The polls projecting Nitish getting five seats is like some polls projecting the BJP will get half the seats in the South.

I think something new is about to happen in India. India is finally about to prove democracy is a superior form of government to whatever they have in China, but you do have to apply it all the way. And if you do that, you end up with double digit growth rates. Something happened in China around 1980. Something is about to happen in India in 2014. That positive change will be the gift of the Kumbh Mela called the Indian general elections.

Just like there is a global Chinese identity and community, there is a global Indian identity and community. And that identity gets a boost when India does well.

At some point down the line, poll taking in India is going to get a little more scientific, a little more reliable. But that time is not now. So I am not putting too much stock in the polls. And the Indian election procedure lasts a full month. So there will be a lot of waiting before the final results are out. But when they are out, there will be a flurry of activity. I expect Nitish to be camping out in Delhi at that point in time. Coalition building is an art form. Nitish’s ways speak to the diversity of India. And that is what will carry the day. It helps that he is also the top performing Indian politician today. Like Salman Khan said, may the best person get the top job. Nitish is that best person.
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Friday, March 14, 2014

Nitish Has Been The Top Performing Indian Politician

And that is why he is the best candidate for Prime Minister.

Modinomics: do Narendra Modi's economic claims add up?
Gujarat's growth rate in the 1990s was 4.8%, compared to the national average of 3.7%; in the 2000s it was 6.9% compared to the national average of 5.6%. The difference between Gujarat's growth rate and the national average increased marginally, from 1.1 percentage points to 1.3 percentage points. A good performance? Yes. Justifying the hype? No. Maharashtra, the top-ranked state in terms of per capita income in the 2000s, improved its growth rate from 4.5% in the 1990s to 6.7% in the 2000s. The difference between Maharashtra's growth rate and the national average grew from 0.8 percentage points to 1.1 percentage points. Contrast this with the performance of Bihar, the state that has been in the bottom of the rankings in terms of per capita income throughout: its growth rate was 2.7 percentage points below the national average in the 1990s, but 1.3 percentage points higher in the 2000s. So the prize for the most dramatic turnaround in the 2000s would go to Bihar.
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Saturday, December 29, 2012

Modi Momentum

Modi has attracted a lot of attention since his poll win, but his very name crumbles the NDA. None of his key allies are excited. And people like Naidu are staying away for good.

There is a paradox here. Modi is the BJP's obvious candidate for PM. But Modi at the helm destroys the NDA. The BJP is left alone.

Modi did not field a single Muslim candidate in Gujrat. That is quite a statement. And it is hard to believe the RSS did not play a key role in the 2002 riots. The train fire might have been accidental.

What Is Nitish Thinking?
Nitish Might Not Have The BJP Option
Modi's Night
The Nitish Magic

English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World E...
English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World Economic Forum in India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Nitish's Bihar overtakes Modi's Gujarat as fastest growing state in the country
10.9 per cent .... Bihar was the slowest growing state during 2001-05 period with GDP figure of 2.9 per cent. However, between 2006 and 2010, it grew at 10.9 per cent, becoming the fastest growing state and shedding the tag of BIMARU (an acronym for sick states)...... Gujarat was the fastest growing state between 2001 and 2005 with figure of 11 per cent. But during 2006 and 2010, its growth dipped to 9.3 per cent and was overtaken by Bihar and four other states -- Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Maharashtra and Orissa. ..... Average GDP growth of top five states was 9.10 per cent in 11th five year plan, up from 7 per cent in 10th plan and 5 per cent in 9th plan.
Modi's effort to rope in TDP and TRS into NDA fold falls flat
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi 's attempt to rope two major political parties in Andhra Pradesh - Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) - into the National Democratic Alliance fold has fallen flat..... Naidu has not been in good terms with Modi since the 2002 communal riots in Godhra. In fact, the TDP president was the first person to demand the sacking of Modi after Gujarat riots and had even threatened to withdraw support to the NDA then. Though he was pacified by senior BJP leaders like M Venkaiah Naidu, such was the animosity of Naidu towards Modi that he refused to nominate another TDP MP as the Lok Sabha Speaker, after the death of G M C Balayogi in a helicopter crash in March 2002, in protest against the Gujarat riots. ..... In August 2003, too, Naidu stalled the scheduled visit of Modi to Hyderabad to participate in Ganesh Nimajjan festivities on the grounds that it would trigger communal riots in the city. ..... Modi's strategy could be gathering the support of new allies to the NDA in the post-2014 election scenario as part of his efforts to prop up his candidature as the next Prime Minister. .... "Let us stick to our anti-Congress and anti-BJP stand and keep up our identity. We are gradually getting rid of our stigma which we got by allying with the BJP. Any inclination towards the BJP would damage our secular image," he told the party leaders
Narendra Modi being propped up in UP as BJP puts him alongside Vajpayee in hoardings
more than two dozen huge hoardings came up here with photographs of both Vajpayee and Modi..... the party may be accepting that Modi was its best bet for Lok Sabha 2014 ..... BJP MP from Lucknow Lalji Tandon has said he would be "more than happy" if Modi contests the Lok Sabha election from Lucknow, which was earlier held by Vajpayee....... admit that Modi was "by far the tallest leader in the BJP"..... "He is a very tall leader, has a clean image and had given an efficient administration to Gujarat" .... many BJP leaders feel that a development-led pro-Hindu branding of Modi could reap rich dividends in Uttar Pradesh
Can Modi Do More?
As he had done while choosing party office-bearers two years ago, Modi reduced the average age of the 17-member ministry from 65 to 55. ..... Modi has a definite plan for his new innings in Gujarat. He feels there has been enough focus on investment and manufacturing and now it should be on the training of skilled manpower, knowledge-sharing and modern technologies in agriculture. "Training of skilled manpower will be one of our main focus areas from now onwards," Modi ..... wrong selection of candidates and party infighting, apart from the opposition of state government employees to the Modi government because of certain policies, cost BJP around 15 seats. ..... BJP is estimated to have lost as many as eight seats to the anti-Modi voting by disgruntled state government employees. Among these eight seats were Godhra, Lunawada, Sojitra and three in Saurashtra. Modi had to pay for his uncompromising nature in this case. ..... Political pundits believe Modi might have reinvented himself finally as a development icon but in the next six months he will have to give a brand new spin to his slogans of "Development Without Discrimination" and "Sauno Saath, Sauno Vikas (Support of All, Development for All)" to strike a chord with voters nationally. For that to happen, changing his anti-Muslim image will also be crucial. ..... Modi did not field even a single Muslim candidate in the state Assembly polls. Further ammunition has been handed to his detractors by the latest National Development Council figures bracketing Gujarat with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar among four states where urban Muslims are poorest.
Narendra Modi steals the limelight at NDC meet
Next Stop Delhi?
Delhi gangrape victim took tuitions to pay for her education

Narendra Modi Keeps Away From Nitish Kumar At NDC
This time, though, it was different. Modi kept away from the 'gatecrash handshake' with Kumar who is known to live in dread of being ambushed by the Gujarat chief minister. ..... Modi has the stigma of 2002 riots that refuses to go away.
Special state status issue: Fireworks expected at NDC meet today
Emboldened by his comprehensive victory in the recent assembly elections, Modi is likely to adopt an extremely aggressive stance. The Centre, on its part, is likely to launch a counter-attack against Modi by citing that the state has been a laggard in alleviating poverty among minorities. .... Like Kumar, Patnaik has also been demanding a special status for his state.
Nitish refuses comment on Gujarat election results
With the boss silent on the issue, no leader, minister, office-bearer or spokesman of the Janata Dal (U) uttered a single word on Narendra Modi's hat-trick. .... He also took stock of the situation relating to changing of 72,000km of electricity wires in the state which are in bad condition. Out of this, 19,000km of wires have been replaced while work was in progress on the rest, he said. The meeting also reviewed renovation work in power plants at Kanti and Barauni and status of new power projects.
Nepal's exports to China surged four-fold in current fiscal
It’s time to move over from being Factory to the West
its manufacturing has to become ‘Germany to the East’ ..... aims at a share of manufacturing of 25% in the gross domestic product (GDP) by 2022, about 12-14% medium-term growth in the sector and creation of 100 million jobs by 2022. Currently, manufacturing accounts 15% share of the sector in the GDP against 34% in China and 40% in Thailand ..... India spends less than 1% of its GDP on R&D while it is 3.47% in Japan, 3.4% in South Korea, 2.81% for the US, and 1.55% for China. .... “India is the largest importer of defence equipment. And that is one sector where India should focus to develop domestic abilities”
India to become bigger economy than UK by 2017
India will overtake the UK by 2017 to become the largest economy in the Commonwealth...... Britain, which has reclaimed its place as the world’s sixth largest economy from Brazil, will however, be larger than France by 2022 .... The next decade will see the BRIC nations, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, cement their economic dominance, as Europe suffers a gradual decline in standing ..... Germany will decline two slots from fourth to sixth, but France and Italy will be the biggest losers. France is expected to fall from fifth to ninth, and Italy from eighth to 13th ..... Brazil will be fifth and Russia will have climbed two places to seventh. .... China will remain the world’s second biggest economy, but will have closed the gap on the US.
At least one or two world-size banks needed to compete globally: Chidambaram
China, which has three among the top 20 banks in the world. "Banks in the country are governed by a sound financial system, rules and a very strong regulator .... during the crisis, 1,000 banks had collapsed in the US, starting with Lehmann Brothers, but in India, not even one bank collapsed, whether it was in public sector, private sector or banks with national or regional footprints
No Easy Route if Assad Opts to Go, or to Stay, in Syria
President Bashar al-Assad of Syria sits in his mountaintop palace as the tide of war licks at the cliffs below. ... Explosions bloom over the Damascus suburbs. .. His country is plunging deeper into chaos. .... East of the palace lies the airport and a possible dash to exile, a route that some say Mr. Assad’s mother and wife may have already taken. ..... A Damascus-based diplomat said Monday that Mr. Assad, despite official denials, is “totally aware” that he must leave and was “looking for a way out,” though the timetable is unclear. .... “powerful people in the upper circle of the ruling elite in Damascus are feeling that an exit must be found.” ..... increasingly empowered security officials, whom one friend of the president’s has come to see as “hotheads.” ..... the mood in the palace is one of panic, evinced by erratic use of weapons: Scud missiles better used against an army than an insurgency, naval mines dropped from the air instead of laid at sea. ..... even if Mr. Assad wanted to flee, it is unclear if the top generals would let him out alive ..... “They speak of the rebels like dogs, terrorists, Islamists, Wahhabis,” the friend said, using a term for adherents to a puritanical form of Islam. “This is why he will keep going to the end.” ..... he mainly wants to be a hero fending off a foreign attack ...... critics say the Assads used four decades in power not to promote meaningful ethnic and religious integration, but to cement Alawite rule with a secular face. ....... To put down an Islamist revolt in the 1980s, Hafez al-Assad bulldozed entire neighborhoods and killed at least 10,000 people. The son now presides over a crackdown-turned-civil war that has killed four times that many, and counting. ..... Assad’s reformist impulses were always meant only to bring access to the luxuries and approval of the West .... grew up in Damascus, reached out to and married into the Sunni elite, and was even mocked in his ancestral village for his Damascus accent
Envoy Meets With Assad as Russia Seeks Distance
Russia, Mr. Assad’s most important foreign backer, was moving forward with plans to evacuate Russian diplomats and other expatriates. ..... Some Russian expatriates working in Syria were abducted this month. .... diplomats in Damascus would be evacuated with the help of special forces, if necessary. The authorities are also prepared to send 100 officers from a special armed unit of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, called “Screen,” which was last used to evacuate Russian diplomats from Baghdad in 2003. .... Moscow’s deeply pessimistic prognosis for the region.
Here's What The 'Agent-15' Chemical Weapon Probably Used In Syria Does To People
The Gas effects started [a] few seconds after the area was shelled. Right after the shelling, patients described seeing white gas with odor, then they had severe shortness of breath, loss of vision, inability to speak, flushed face, dizziness, paralysis, nausea and vomiting, and increased respiratory secretions. Doctors who treated patients said that patients had pinpoint pupils and bronchospasm. Patients were treated in a field hospital. Gas masks were not available...... Referred to as an "incapacitating" chemical in military circles, the worst known non-lethal reactions to high doses of BZ include stupor, hallucinations and "regressive" phantom behaviors such as plucking at one's hair and disrobing...... Agent-15 is not nearly as lethal as Assad's stockpile of nerve and blistering agents— Sarin, VX, and Mustard — which can kill from the mildest direct exposure.
Chemical war of words: Syrian govt, rebels trade accusations
Al-Qaeda-linked rebels allegedly used chemical weapons during a battle with government troops in the Darya district on the outskirts of Damascus, killing at least seven soldiers. .... it was yellow and caused death within an hour of being inhaled
Putin visits India, eyes arms sales, trade and political ties
"Fiscal cliff" talks turn sour, Obama threatens veto
Fiscal cliff: Barack Obama threatens to attack Republicans in inauguration speech
Barack Obama: I Dance Gangnam Style To Embarrass My Daughters
Gloomy predictions as Washington approaches the 'fiscal cliff'
"It's the first time that I feel it's more likely we'll go over the cliff than not," Sen. Lieberman said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” "If we allow that to happen it will be the most colossal consequential act of congressional irresponsibility in a long time, maybe ever in American history because of the impact it'll have on almost every American.” ..... “I believe the president is eager to go over the cliff for political purposes,” he said. “He senses a victory at the bottom of the cliff.” ...... “The truth of the matter is, if we do fall off the cliff after the president is inaugurated, he’ll come back, propose just what he proposed … and we’ll end up adopting it,” said Sen. Johnny Isakson, (R) of Georgia on Fox News. “Why not go ahead and act now?”
West Antarctica Warming Faster Than Thought, Study Finds
making central West Antarctica one of the fastest-warming regions on earth. .... a breakup of the ice sheet, over a period that would presumably last at least several hundred years, could raise global sea levels by 10 feet, possibly more.
“My final offer is this: nothing”
Tax fight sends GOP into chaos

Breaking Free: How Nitish Kumar Turned Bihar Into a Model of Indian Reform
From Bihar, a New Approach to Flood Control
Fall of Nitish govt is certain: Lalu Prasad
Nitish Kumar: The Chief Minister who changed Bihar
Nitish Kumar-ruled Bihar safer than Narendra Modi-led Gujarat: JD(U)
A Look Back: The Incredible Change in Bihar
Nitish Kumar: India’s Man from Hope?
Dramatic Change in India’s Poorest State
How Nitish Conquered Bihar
Bihar CM Nitish Kumar likely to consolidate Muslim vote bank after his Pak visit
Bihar bats for Nitish Kumar as PM
Nitish Kumar invites India Inc to Bihar
In driver's seat, Nitish Kumar moves Bihar into top gear
Nitish: Bihar migrants can never be a burden on anyone
Nitish Kumar: Engineering change in Bihar
Building on Bihar
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