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Saturday, April 04, 2026

4: Middle East

Five Scenarios for a U.S. Ground War on Iran A vexing geography offers no clean entry point. ........... For decades, a U.S. ground invasion of Iran was treated as the outer limit of escalation, too costly to launch and too destabilizing to sustain. That assumption is now eroding. As the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran intensifies, what once seemed unthinkable has become increasingly plausible. The question is no longer simply whether a ground invasion is possible, but where it could begin and whether it could achieve strategic results. ................. At first glance, Iran’s periphery seems to offer multiple entry points, from the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman to the western borderlands. But this is the central illusion. The same geography that makes invasion conceivable also makes it strategically self-defeating. Iran’s military geography channels outside forces into a narrow set of coastal choke points, energy hubs, and border corridors that are less pathways to success than triggers of wider escalation. What appears to be a menu of options is, in reality, a map of consequences. ....................

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