The information warfare is adding to the confusion.
Number one is the media. Culprits: US media, Indian media. They need drama. They have to make it sound like one day this side is winning, the next day the other side is winning. So people keep coming back. That is their business model.
There is plenty of propaganda. Pentagon is not the only one, but it might be the primary one. But at least the intent and the strategy become clear. I wish there were similar Iranian propaganda. But the regime does not believe in being clear. It believes in deception and lies. In that mindset, not talking is the talk.
And there are the talking heads. Hitting targets does not count. Decapitating leadership does not count. What counts is strategic victory. Iran is winning. As in, if the regime does not collapse, then it has won. If the regime does collapse, and there is chaos, then the US has lost.
There was Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria.
All wars are messy. There is always death and destruction. And that is why it has to be the weapon of last resort.
The saving grace in this equation are the Iranian people themselves. If they don't come out into the streets, then it does look bad. But they will. How do I know? Because they just did. And they did it time and again over two decades. Iran is different. Iran is not Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria. The Iranian diaspora is different. What the diaspora did on February 14, no diaspora has done, ever. Not the Russian diaspora in 1988! Not the Polish diaspora.
Some people are already counting that out. Look, there is nobody in the streets. If bombs were dropping all around you, you might also skip grocery shopping, forget protesting. Not enough degradation has happened. The IRGC, the Basij still can come out and crush. Their strategy is absolutely brutal. Rain machine gun fire into peaceful crowds.
Once enough degradation has happened, and the bombing has stopped, the people will come out into the streets. Again. And engineer the regime collapse. That will be the ultimate asymmetric warfare. Missiles and drones are not going to work on them. And that will be the turning point.
I don't start with military power. I start with moral clarity. And it is my firm belief that you cannot become a military expert by watching YouTube videos. I am no military expert.
The biggest mistake is to think this is Israel's war. This is not Israel's war. Israel just happens to be at the forefront.
