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Saturday, April 04, 2026

Iran War: The Missing Jujitsu

John Specer: "He was not focused on destruction for its own sake or on seeking decisive battles as an end in themselves, but on achieving outcomes that aligned military action with political purpose at the lowest possible cost, warning plainly that “there is no instance of a nation benefiting from prolonged warfare.” ......... “All warfare is based on deception.” He was not describing battlefield tricks. He was describing a way of thinking about war. Deception, for him, meant shaping the enemy’s perception of reality. It meant influencing what the enemy believed about your intentions, your capabilities, and your limits. It meant forcing decisions based on uncertainty. .......... That idea was inseparable from knowledge. Sun Tzu wrote that “if you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles,” not as a statement about counting weapons or platforms, but about understanding how a system actually functions, including leadership, cohesion, resources, and the capacity to adapt. Intelligence, in that sense, was not simply a tool for awareness, but for influence. .......... Before analyzing any war, Sun Tzu would have asked the question that remains debated today: What is the political objective? He did not separate war from politics, writing that “the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought,” a point not about tactics but about alignment, because strategy is not simply the execution of force, it is the connection between means and political ends. ............

Applied to a U.S. and Israeli campaign against Iran, the question remains decisive. What is the objective? Is it regime change, or is it behavior change? Is it the destruction of the nuclear program, or the acceptance of constraints? Is it deterrence, or is it the use of force to compel the enemy to do your will? These are not interchangeable aims. Each requires a different scale of effort, a different timeline, and a different tolerance for risk.

.................. Deception directed at the enemy can be useful. Ambiguity within one’s own strategy is dangerous. If political leaders, military planners, and allies do not share a common understanding of the objective, then deception becomes confusion. And confusion at the strategic level produces incoherence in execution. ............ Sun Tzu laid out a hierarchy that remains one of the most useful ways to think about war. “What is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy; next best is to disrupt his alliances; next best is to attack his army.” Only after those options does he arrive at the final step. “The worst policy is to attack cities. Attack cities only when there is no alternative.” Applied to Iran, that hierarchy matters. .............

attacking military capabilities alone is insufficient

; the strategy should also target command networks, revenue streams, internal control mechanisms, and the ability to regenerate combat power. .................. This reflects Sun Tzu’s preference for the indirect approach, shaping conditions so that victory becomes inevitable before decisive battle is required, while still recognizing that direct force must be applied where necessary to exploit advantage or impose cost. He argued for striking weakness, avoiding strength, and using maneuver, disruption, and psychological pressure to undermine the enemy’s system. In a modern context, that logic extends beyond the battlefield to include information warfare, cyber operations, and actions below the threshold of sustained conventional conflict, all aimed at influencing both capability and will. ....................... There have also been indications of outreach to the United States, alongside unconfirmed reports of defections and visible measures to maintain internal control, including Basij checkpoints in major population centers. .................. Maintaining cohesion among allies, however, remains essential. ................

Tactical success does not equal strategic success.

............... “The worst policy is to attack cities.” He placed this last because of time and cost. Siege warfare in his time was slow, expensive, and uncertain, forcing armies to give up maneuver and initiative while risking a slide into protracted war, the very condition he warned against. That logic still applies. Modern urban warfare imposes many of the same burdens. It is complex, resource intensive, and politically consequential, absorbing combat power and extending time. For a strategist focused on achieving a political objective efficiently, urban combat is not the preferred approach. When it becomes necessary, such as rapidly seizing a capital in pursuit of a primary objective like regime change, it must be executed quickly and with precision. ........................ Time, for Sun Tzu, was also always central. A short, concentrated campaign that creates the conditions for a political settlement aligns with his thinking .......... In Iran’s case, that includes economic survival, particularly oil revenue and critical infrastructure that sustain both its military capacity and internal control. This could involve actions that isolate key nodes of economic output, such as limiting the regime’s ability to export oil through critical infrastructure like Kharg Island, as well as degrading its ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as a means of economic coercion against global shipping. It could also include measures that disrupt the systems the regime relies on to maintain internal cohesion and control, including communications and information networks. The purpose of such pressure would not be destruction for its own sake, but to alter the regime’s calculations by increasing the cost of continued fighting while raising concerns about its ability to govern, sustain itself, and continue to impose costs on others. ............ Throughout the war, Sun Tzu would have returned to a simple measure of success, not only what was destroyed, but what was achieved. If the enemy’s decisions change, the strategy has worked. If they do not, then tactical success may prove insufficient. ............. The Art of War endures. It is not a guide to battle. It is a framework for thinking about war as a contest of wills, shaped by political purpose, constrained by cost, and decided not by destruction, but by decisions. ...................... Sun Tzu would also have recognized the political constraints that shape the use of force and the importance of perception beyond the battlefield. He warned that “there is no instance of a nation benefiting from prolonged warfare” and that the use of the military must remain tied to the interests of the state, not drift into objectives that expand beyond what was originally intended. He placed extraordinary importance on information, writing that foreknowledge must be obtained and used to shape outcomes, a principle that today extends to the information domain and the perceptions of both enemy leadership and the population. ............ Sun Tzu also understood the role of threat, not as a matter of rhetoric, but as a function of perception and pressure. “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting,” and that requires shaping the enemy’s understanding of what continued fighting will bring. But he also warned against excess. “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.” The purpose of pressure is not to eliminate all options, but to shape them, and to shape how they are understood. In this context, that means applying enough force to influence decision-making while preserving a path toward a political outcome aligned with stated objectives. ..................... If the regime were to collapse as a result of the war, the outcomes associated with regime change could occur, but that would be distinct from making regime change the stated political objective. If the objective shifts, or is perceived to shift, from forcing a change in behavior to regime change requiring large-scale ground forces, it risks repeating patterns seen in past wars, where limited objectives expanded into nation building and protracted counterinsurgency campaigns against enemies able to adapt, disperse, and find sanctuary. Those conditions favor the defender, extend time, and erode political cohesion. ................... Strategy must remain aligned to political purpose, and that purpose must remain disciplined, or the advantages gained early in a campaign can be lost over time. ".

"Our signal to the United States and countries in the Middle East about the Strait of Hormuz was that we were open to discussing it. ............... As of today, I don't see any country lifting the blockade on its own, only joint steps can bring results. Ukraine has experience with launching the Grain Corridor in the Black Sea despite Russia’s attempts to block the flow of food and other goods. The situation now is similar, but it is about energy. .............. The war and the negotiations on reopening the Hormuz Strait can go in parallel. .........

An alternative step would be to control the Strait unilaterally, as Ukraine did with the Grain Corridor. Achieving this would require interceptors, military convoys to escort the vessels, a large integrated electronic warfare network, and other tools. We stand ready to help with this.

............ But for now, we are not yet involved. So far, no one has made such a request."


Iran War: The Missing Jujitsu


In the midst of the escalating conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran, a clear-eyed political analysis cuts through the fog of military briefings and media commentary. While acknowledging the limits of personal expertise, this perspective insists that war remains, at its core, politics by other means. The central argument is that the most consequential error in this war has not come from generals or governments, but from within the very community best positioned to shape its outcome.
I am not a military expert. I am clear about that. But I know my politics. And war is politics by other means.
The fundamental mistake in this war has been made by the Iranian diaspora.
And it is a heroic diaspora. A civilizational people doing amazing things all over the world. What the Iranian diaspora did on February 14, 2026 no other diaspora has done, ever. That is why I say, Iran is not Iraq, Iran is not Afghanistan. Because I have already seen what they can do. Almost two million of them came out into the streets all over the world.
Yet this same remarkable community has faltered at a deeper level. So what is the mistake? An utter refusal to achieve spiritual clarity on Islam. To go into the streets to protest is to petition the Ayatollah for liberty. The Ayatollah cannot grant you liberty. He himself is not free. He is a slave to The Devil. Islam is spiritual prison.
Islam is the anti-religion. Islam is the religion of the Devil. Allah is not God. Allah is the Devil having distorted who or what God is. God is omnipotent. Allah as described in the Koran does not have the power to enter human history. Sharia Law is utter tyranny. That is the Devil's way. God's way is liberty. The Devil's way is tyranny. There is no historic Muhammad. Runners run. Swimmers swim. Prophets prophesy. What prophecies have been attributed to Muhammad? There are none. Isaiah was a prophet. Some of his prophecies are still coming true today.
The Iranian diaspora not making the effort to achieve spiritual clarity on Islam is the biggest strategic mistake of this war.
This is not Trump's war. This can't be Trump's war. It is for the Iranian diaspora to take the lead. Not enough organizing and strategizing is happening in parts of the world where the Iranian diaspora does have free speech and the right to peaceful assembly.
At its heart, this conflict transcends borders and tactics. This is a classic fight between good and evil. The truly evil do not reason. The truly evil fight to the finish. Any endgame scenario that does not look like a regime collapse to be replaced by a democratic transitional government that leads to a constituent assembly gives us North Korea with none of the restraints. Build the bomb to explode the bomb. Build the bomb not to threaten but to use it. North Korea threatens.
Wars are tough. They cause death and destruction. There are always civilian casualties. There are unintended consequences. They get messy. There is the relentless drumbeat of critics and trolls. Everybody and their cousin have a YouTube channel.
The economic circumstances, if anything, have only worsened since December. Yes, unconditional surrender can be attempted. But my first choice always was to make room for what already happened in late December, early January. People took to the streets.
Critics who frame the crisis narrowly miss the global stakes. Those who say this is Israel's problem, let them look at the Strait of Hormuz. Those who say this is Israel's problem, let them look at the damage done to civilian locations in the many Gulf countries.
This is the world's problem. It is not for no reason that the Islamic Republic has talked very recently of kicking the Americans out of the region. The plan always was to turn the Gulf countries Muslim, as per the Ayatollah's definition. Bring under the thumb.
The closure of the Strait is peak terrorism. Osama did not manage it with 9/11. There is daily fear across the world right now. This is the ultimate hostage taking behavior. Except this was always the intent. The Islamic Republic was never just about Iran.
A practical path forward exists beyond endless bombing. I am no military expert. But if Ukraine is offering the military option on Hormuz, it should be taken. Hormuz is a topic on its own. It is separate from nukes, missiles and proxies. It is about the world's poor. Countless family budgets have been broken. They were fickle to start with.
The sequence is deliberate and decisive: Open the Strait. And then pull back. Stop the bombing. But stay in the region. Give the people a few weeks. A few months perhaps. And when they do take to the streets, there has to be an automatic trigger. Should the Basij goons take to their bikes with machine guns, they have to be aerially neutralized. Protecting the right to peacefully protest is what will bring forth the regime collapse. Because if there is no regime collapse, it will only be a pause not peace. It will only be a matter of time before there is another war.
Once the regime falls, the foundation for a new Iran is already in place. The democratic transitional government has pledged full cooperation on the nuke program, the missile program, and the proxy program. Because they would like to sing the tune of prosperity for the Iranian people.
The Iranian diaspora has a deep bench of talent. Iran is a future global power. Iran is a multi-trillion economy in the future. A democratic Iran is.
The missing maneuver—the true jujitsu of this war—is not more escalation but calibrated restraint that turns the regime’s own momentum against it. The jujitsu move is to step back to make space for the Iranian people to take to the streets, and to stay put in the region to protect them when they do take to the streets.
This is not a counsel of weakness. It is the strategic recognition that the Iranian people themselves are the decisive force. By protecting their right to protest rather than attempting to impose change from afar, the world can secure a genuine regime collapse and a democratic Iran that ends the cycle of tyranny, nuclear threat, and regional terror once and for all. The diaspora has already shown its power on February 14, 2026. Now is the time to channel that power into spiritual clarity and organized leadership—so that the next streets filled with millions do not merely petition for liberty, but seize it.


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