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Showing posts with label congo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label congo. Show all posts

Monday, June 30, 2025

30: Congo

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

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Sunday, May 11, 2025

Ongoing Conflicts Around The World



Below is a list of major wars and armed conflicts around the world as of May 2025, based on available data from sources like the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, ACLED, Crisis Group, and others. Each conflict includes a brief description, duration, causes, chances of resolution, and potential primary peacemakers. Note that the list focuses on significant ongoing conflicts with at least 100 direct violent deaths per year, as per the Uppsala criteria, and excludes smaller-scale violence or criminal gang activity unless it involves significant military or paramilitary engagement. Due to the complexity and number of conflicts, there is a  summary below of key details concisely while covering the most prominent cases. For some conflicts, precise data on fatalities or resolution prospects may be limited, so there will be informed estimates based on trends.

1. Russia-Ukraine War
  • Description: A full-scale interstate war following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, involving intense fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine, with Russian territorial gains and Ukrainian counteroffensives. It includes air strikes, drone warfare, and significant civilian casualties.
  • Duration: Since February 24, 2022 (escalation of a conflict ongoing since 2014 with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk). ~3 years for the current phase; ~11 years total.
  • Causes: Russian territorial ambitions, geopolitical rivalry (NATO expansion concerns), nationalist narratives, and control over eastern Ukraine’s resources and strategic areas. Ukraine fights for sovereignty and territorial integrity.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low in the near term. Russia’s territorial gains and maximalist demands (e.g., recognition of annexed territories) clash with Ukraine’s existential need to resist. A ceasefire favorable to Moscow is possible in 2025, but a lasting peace deal is unlikely due to irreconcilable goals.
  • Primary Peacemakers: United States, European Union, Turkey, and potentially China could mediate. The UN and International Criminal Court have roles but limited influence. Neutral countries like Switzerland or Qatar may facilitate talks.
2. Israel-Hamas War (Gaza)
  • Description: A high-intensity conflict centered in Gaza, with Israeli military operations against Hamas following the October 7, 2023, attack. Involves airstrikes, ground operations, and a severe humanitarian crisis, with over 22,000 Palestinian deaths by late 2023.
  • Duration: Current phase since October 7, 2023 (~1.5 years), but part of a decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict rooted in 1948 and recurring escalations.
  • Causes: Hamas’s attack (killing over 1,000 Israelis, taking hostages) aimed to disrupt Israel’s normalization with Arab states and assert Palestinian resistance. Israel seeks to eliminate Hamas’s military capacity and secure its borders. Root causes include occupation, settlements, and Palestinian statehood aspirations.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. Israel’s goal of dismantling Hamas is ambitious, and Hamas’s resilience and regional support (e.g., Iran) complicate outcomes. No ceasefire is in place, and Gaza’s humanitarian crisis worsens. Long-term peace requires addressing Palestinian statehood, unlikely soon.
  • Primary Peacemakers: Egypt, Qatar, and the United States have mediated past ceasefires. The UN and EU could push humanitarian pauses, but regional powers like Saudi Arabia may influence broader talks.
3. Sudan Civil War
  • Description: A brutal civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo. Fighting has displaced 12 million and caused famine in Darfur, with staggering sexual violence.
  • Duration: Since April 2023 (~2 years).
  • Causes: Power struggle after the 2019 ouster of Omar al-Bashir. SAF and RSF, former allies, vie for control of Sudan’s government and resources. Ethnic and regional divisions, plus foreign backing (e.g., UAE for RSF, Egypt for SAF), fuel the conflict.
  • Chances of Resolution: Very low. The RSF’s territorial gains and lack of diplomatic progress hinder ceasefires. The conflict risks fracturing Sudan further. External sponsors exacerbate the stalemate.
  • Primary Peacemakers: African Union, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the UN could mediate. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as key backers, are critical but conflicted due to their own agendas.
4. Myanmar Civil War
  • Description: A multi-front civil war pitting the military junta against ethnic armed groups and new resistance forces (People’s Defense Forces) following the 2021 coup. Over 3 million are displaced, with widespread poverty and infrastructure collapse.
  • Duration: Since February 2021 (~4 years), though ethnic conflicts predate the coup, some lasting decades.
  • Causes: The military’s coup ousted the elected government, sparking nationwide resistance. Ethnic groups fight for autonomy, while resistance groups seek to topple the junta. China’s support for the junta and regional rivalries complicate dynamics.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. The junta faces losses but retains Chinese backing, while resistance groups lack unity. A 2025 election, if held, may escalate violence.
  • Primary Peacemakers: ASEAN, China, and India could mediate, but ASEAN’s efforts have been ineffective. The UN has limited leverage due to vetoes by China and Russia.
5. Mexican Drug War
  • Description: An ongoing conflict between the Mexican government and drug cartels (e.g., Sinaloa, Jalisco New Generation), with cartels fighting each other for control of trafficking routes. Violence includes assassinations, massacres, and civilian targeting.
  • Duration: Since December 2006 (~18 years), when the government launched a crackdown on cartels.
  • Causes: Cartels seek economic control over drug trade (especially fentanyl), fueled by U.S. demand. Corruption, weak governance, and U.S.-supplied weapons sustain violence. Political instability and elections exacerbate tensions.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. Fragmentation of cartels into smaller, violent groups and systemic corruption hinder progress. Non-military approaches (e.g., legalization, social programs) are debated but unimplemented.
  • Primary Peacemakers: Mexico’s government, with U.S. cooperation on drug policy and arms control, could drive change. Civil society and international NGOs may push alternative strategies.
6. Yemeni Civil War
  • Description: A complex conflict involving the Houthi movement, the internationally recognized Yemeni government, and a Saudi-led coalition. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have escalated tensions with Western powers.
  • Duration: Since September 2014 (~10.5 years), with Saudi intervention since 2015.
  • Causes: Houthi takeover of Sanaa sparked a power struggle, fueled by sectarian (Shia-Sunni) tensions, Iranian support for Houthis, and Saudi/UAE interests in regional dominance. Economic collapse and tribal rivalries worsen the crisis.
  • Chances of Resolution: Moderate. A UN-brokered truce in 2023 showed progress, but Houthi maritime attacks and external backing (Iran, Saudi Arabia) complicate peace. A roadmap for ceasefire exists but is fragile.
  • Primary Peacemakers: UN, Oman, and Saudi Arabia are key mediators. Iran’s involvement is crucial but challenging due to its rivalry with Saudi Arabia.
7. Sahel Conflicts (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger)
  • Description: Jihadist insurgencies by groups like JNIM (al-Qaeda-affiliated) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara against military juntas and local forces. Violence includes civilian massacres and resource conflicts.
  • Duration: Since 2012 (13 years), with escalation after 2021 coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
  • Causes: Jihadist groups exploit weak governance, poverty, and ethnic tensions. Military juntas’ aggressive tactics and Russian mercenary involvement (post-French withdrawal) fuel violence. Climate change and resource scarcity exacerbate local conflicts.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. Jihadist groups are resilient, and juntas prioritize military solutions over governance. Regional cooperation is weak after the collapse of French-led initiatives.
  • Primary Peacemakers: ECOWAS, African Union, and the UN could mediate, but juntas resist external influence. Algeria and Morocco may play roles, but Russian presence complicates efforts.
8. Democratic Republic of Congo (M23 Conflict)
  • Description: Fighting in eastern DRC between the M23 rebel group, backed by Rwanda, and the Congolese army (FARDC) with allied militias (Wazalendo). Clashes displace millions and threaten regional stability.
  • Duration: Current M23 escalation since late 2021 (~3.5 years), but eastern DRC conflicts persist since the 1990s.
  • Causes: M23 seeks influence and control over resource-rich areas, with Rwanda’s alleged support tied to security and economic interests. Ethnic tensions and weak governance fuel violence. Regional rivalries (Rwanda vs. DRC) sustain the conflict.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. Peace agreements are fragile due to mutual distrust and proxy warfare. Continued M23 advances risk spoiling talks.
  • Primary Peacemakers: African Union, East African Community (EAC), and Angola could mediate. Rwanda and DRC must engage directly, but geopolitical tensions hinder progress.
9. Somalia Insurgency
  • Description: Al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-affiliated group, fights the Somali government and clan militias, controlling rural areas and conducting urban attacks. Recent Al-Shabaab gains (e.g., Adan Yabal) challenge government control.
  • Duration: Since 2006 (19 years).
  • Causes: Al-Shabaab seeks to impose strict Islamist rule, exploiting clan divisions and government weakness. Foreign interventions (e.g., AMISOM, U.S. airstrikes) and resource competition sustain violence.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. Al-Shabaab’s resilience and government’s reliance on external support limit progress. Political divisions over 2025-2026 elections may escalate fighting.
  • Primary Peacemakers: African Union, UN, and Turkey could mediate. Ethiopia and Kenya, as regional powers, are key but face their own security challenges.
10. Haiti Gang Violence
  • Description: Gangs control much of Port-au-Prince, fighting each other and security forces, causing widespread displacement and humanitarian crises. Not a traditional war but meets conflict criteria due to scale.
  • Duration: Escalated since 2021 (~4 years), with roots in decades of instability.
  • Causes: Political vacuum after President Moรฏse’s 2021 assassination, economic collapse, and gang empowerment through arms trafficking. Gangs vie for territorial and economic control.
  • Chances of Resolution: Moderate. International support (e.g., Kenyan-led UN mission) could stabilize areas, but governance reforms are needed. Gangs’ fragmentation may aid negotiations.
  • Primary Peacemakers: UN, United States, and Caribbean Community (CARICOM). Kenya and Brazil, as mission contributors, are key.
11. Syria Conflict
  • Description: A fragmented conflict with Syrian government forces, backed by Russia and Iran, fighting rebel groups (e.g., Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and Turkish-backed factions. Recent rebel offensives have destabilized Assad’s control.
  • Duration: Since March 2011 (~14 years).
  • Causes: Initially a civil war against Assad’s regime, now a proxy conflict involving Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the U.S. Territorial control, sectarian divides, and foreign interests drive violence.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. Assad’s weakened position and external actors’ competing agendas (e.g., Turkey vs. Russia) make peace elusive. Rebel gains may force talks but risk escalation.
  • Primary Peacemakers: UN, Turkey, Russia, and Iran. Qatar and Saudi Arabia could facilitate regional dialogue.
12. Ethiopia (Amhara and Oromia Conflicts)
  • Description: Internal conflicts involving Amhara militias (Fano) and Oromo Liberation Army against the Ethiopian government. Violence stems from ethnic and political grievances.
  • Duration: Amhara conflict since 2023 (2 years); Oromia since 2018 (7 years).
  • Causes: Ethnic federalism disputes, marginalization claims, and resistance to Abiy Ahmed’s centralization. Resource competition and historical grievances fuel fighting.
  • Chances of Resolution: Moderate. The 2022 Tigray ceasefire shows dialogue potential, but Amhara and Oromo distrust complicates talks.
  • Primary Peacemakers: African Union, IGAD, and Ethiopian civil society. The U.S. and EU could support inclusive dialogue.
Other Notable Conflicts
Due to space constraints, smaller conflicts (100–1,000 deaths/year) are summarized:
  • Colombia (ELN and FARC Dissidents): Ongoing since 1964, with ~1,000 deaths/year. Drug trafficking and territorial control drive violence. Peace talks with ELN have potential (moderate resolution chances). Mediators: Colombia government, Norway, Cuba.
  • Nigeria (Boko Haram, ISWAP, Herder-Farmer Clashes): Since ~2009, with ~1,000–10,000 deaths/year. Jihadist insurgency and resource conflicts. Low resolution chances due to governance issues. Mediators: ECOWAS, Nigeria government.
  • India-Pakistan (Kashmir): Intermittent since 1947, with recent escalations (e.g., May 2025 missile strikes). Territorial and nationalist disputes. Low resolution chances without major diplomacy. Mediators: UN, neutral powers like Norway.
  • Great Lakes Region (Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda): Proxy conflicts and ethnic violence since the 1990s. Low resolution chances due to regional rivalries. Mediators: AU, EAC.
Notes
  • Total Conflicts: ~52 countries host armed conflicts, with 4 major wars (>10,000 deaths/year), 20 high-intensity conflicts (1,000–9,999 deaths), and ~28 lower-intensity conflicts (100–999 deaths).
  • Global Trends: Conflicts are increasingly internationalized, with 92 countries involved externally. Resolution is harder due to fewer peace agreements (4% of conflicts end this way vs. 23% in the 1970s).
  • Data Gaps: Exact casualty figures and resolution prospects vary due to underreporting and fluid dynamics. I’ve used conservative estimates from ACLED, SIPRI, and Crisis Group.
  • Peacemaking Challenges: External powers (e.g., Russia, China, U.S.) often prioritize strategic interests over peace, and regional organizations lack resources.

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