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Sunday, March 22, 2026

22: Iran-Israel

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22: Israel

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22: Iran

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Saturday, March 21, 2026

21: Middle East

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The Iran War And The Information Warfare

The information warfare is adding to the confusion.

Number one is the media. Culprits: US media, Indian media. They need drama. They have to make it sound like one day this side is winning, the next day the other side is winning. So people keep coming back. That is their business model.

There is plenty of propaganda. Pentagon is not the only one, but it might be the primary one. But at least the intent and the strategy become clear. I wish there were similar Iranian propaganda. But the regime does not believe in being clear. It believes in deception and lies. In that mindset, not talking is the talk.

And there are the talking heads. Hitting targets does not count. Decapitating leadership does not count. What counts is strategic victory. Iran is winning. As in, if the regime does not collapse, then it has won. If the regime does collapse, and there is chaos, then the US has lost.

There was Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria.

All wars are messy. There is always death and destruction. And that is why it has to be the weapon of last resort.

The saving grace in this equation are the Iranian people themselves. If they don't come out into the streets, then it does look bad. But they will. How do I know? Because they just did. And they did it time and again over two decades. Iran is different. Iran is not Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria. The Iranian diaspora is different. What the diaspora did on February 14, no diaspora has done, ever. Not the Russian diaspora in 1988! Not the Polish diaspora.

Some people are already counting that out. Look, there is nobody in the streets. If bombs were dropping all around you, you might also skip grocery shopping, forget protesting. Not enough degradation has happened. The IRGC, the Basij still can come out and crush. Their strategy is absolutely brutal. Rain machine gun fire into peaceful crowds.

Once enough degradation has happened, and the bombing has stopped, the people will come out into the streets. Again. And engineer the regime collapse. That will be the ultimate asymmetric warfare. Missiles and drones are not going to work on them. And that will be the turning point.

I don't start with military power. I start with moral clarity. And it is my firm belief that you cannot become a military expert by watching YouTube videos. I am no military expert.

The biggest mistake is to think this is Israel's war. This is not Israel's war. Israel just happens to be at the forefront.

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21: Iran

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Friday, March 20, 2026

The Imminent Collapse of the Islamic Republic: A People-Powered Revolution and the Dawn of a Normal Iran


The Imminent Collapse of the Islamic Republic: A People-Powered Revolution and the Dawn of a Normal Iran
The Islamic Republic of Iran is now just a few short weeks from collapse. Decades of economic mismanagement, brutal repression, and regional adventurism have finally hollowed out the regime from within. What remains is a brittle shell held together by fear, patronage, and the Revolutionary Guard’s guns. But that shell is cracking beyond repair. The end will not come from foreign invasion or surgical strikes alone. It will be engineered by the Iranian people themselves, pouring into the streets in numbers the regime can no longer contain.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — the regime’s ideological shock troops — already senses the writing on the wall. In the final days, thousands of IRGC soldiers and Basij militiamen are expected to shed their uniforms, don civilian clothes, and melt into the general population. Many will attempt to disappear into Tehran’s suburbs, Isfahan’s bazaars, or the anonymity of provincial towns, hoping to evade accountability once the regime’s command structure disintegrates. Some may even try to rebrand themselves as “moderate” voices in whatever transitional authority emerges. History shows this pattern: when dictatorships fall, their enforcers rarely fight to the last man; they scramble for survival.
This internal implosion will trigger seismic shifts far beyond Iran’s borders.
First, the strategic realignment for the United States. For more than four decades, Washington has maintained a sprawling network of military bases across the Middle East — in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere — largely to deter Iranian aggression, protect shipping lanes, and contain Tehran’s proxy network. Once Iran becomes a normal country — no longer a theocratic sponsor of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis — the rationale for much of this forward presence evaporates. Bases that were once essential tripwires against missile barrages and mining operations in the Strait of Hormuz will become expensive relics. The Pentagon will be able to shutter or dramatically scale back dozens of installations, returning tens of thousands of troops home and saving billions in annual operating costs. The “forever presence” posture that has defined U.S. Middle East policy since 1979 will finally have an expiration date.
Second, the global energy market will breathe easier. Iran sits atop the world’s second-largest proven oil reserves and fourth-largest natural gas reserves. Under sanctions, roughly 1.5–2 million barrels per day of Iranian crude have been kept off the open market, artificially tightening supply and inflating prices. The moment the regime falls and international oil companies can again invest, negotiate, and export without fear of secondary sanctions or Revolutionary Guard interference, that withheld volume floods the market. Combined with restored investment in aging fields and new exploration, analysts expect a sustained drop in global oil prices — potentially $15–25 per barrel lower within months. Every driver in America, Europe, and Asia will feel the difference at the pump. Every airline, every manufacturer, every developing economy importing energy will gain breathing room. The “Iran premium” that has distorted markets for years will vanish overnight.
Crucially, the transition itself can — and must — be smooth. The collapse will not resemble the chaotic implosions of Libya or Syria. Iran possesses a large, educated middle class, a deep reservoir of technocrats sidelined by the mullahs, and a diaspora of millions ready to return with capital and expertise. The military (distinct from the IRGC) has shown pragmatic streaks in the past and may well choose to stand aside rather than die for a discredited regime. Provincial governors, mayors, and civil servants know their jobs depend on stability. With careful choreography — rapid formation of an interim council, immediate lifting of sanctions, and guarantees of amnesty for non-criminal officials — Iran can avoid the power vacuum that doomed other revolutions.
None of this happens without the decisive act of the Iranian people. U.S. and Israeli strikes — whether recent or future — are not regime-change operations. They are precision degradations: command-and-control nodes shattered, missile factories crippled, drone production lines obliterated. Their strategic purpose is narrow but vital: to strip the regime of the tools it needs to massacre its own citizens en masse. When the Revolutionary Guard’s communications fail, when its ammunition depots burn, when its surveillance drones lie in ruins, the balance of power in the streets shifts dramatically. The security forces’ capacity for mass repression collapses. What remains is raw numbers — millions of Iranians who have waited decades for this moment.
The collapse will be engineered in Tehran’s Azadi Square, in Shiraz’s boulevards, in Tabriz’s markets, and in the alleyways of every provincial city. It will be Iranian women tearing off compulsory hijabs, workers shutting down oil terminals, students livestreaming from rooftops, and truckers blocking highways. The regime’s guns will still fire, but they will fire into an ocean of defiance they can no longer drown. That is the only force capable of delivering irreversible regime change.
The world has seen this movie before — Eastern Europe 1989, Tunisia 2011 — but never with stakes this high. A post-theocratic Iran that rejoins the community of nations as a responsible actor would transform the Middle East more profoundly than any peace treaty signed so far. Proxy wars would dry up. Nuclear ambitions would end. Energy markets would stabilize. And the United States would finally be able to pivot resources toward genuine 21st-century priorities rather than 1979-era containment.
The Iranian people are ready. The regime is not. The clock is ticking — weeks, not months. When the streets rise, the Islamic Republic will fall. And a normal Iran will rise in its place.


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