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Tuesday, July 21, 2026

21: Iran

‘This is what a quagmire looks like’: Trump enters bleak new phase with Iran the president is rapidly running out of ways to extricate the U.S. from an unpopular, expensive conflict ahead of the midterms. .......... “People, generally, are concerned,” said James Jeffrey, a former ambassador who served in the Middle East in three presidential administrations, including the first Trump administration. “I mean, Americans are dying. It's very serious. This is a real war.” ........ Republicans close to the White House are also distressed about the war’s economic impact on everyday Americans in an election that is expected to hinge on cost-of-living issues. The average price for a gallon of gas surpassed $4 for the first time since mid June, up 13 cents in the last week. ............. And Iran’s demonstrated ability to survive punishing U.S. bombardments while inflicting casualties on American troops and allies and choking off the Strait of Hormuz underscores the challenges Trump faces in trying to win a war against an adversary that is merely trying to survive it. ......... “I don't think anybody likes the in-between position of having an Iran where these terrorists are still in charge and could affect our domestic politics going into November. For them, winning the war is surviving,” said Trump pollster John McLaughlin. “Their whole existence is based on an ongoing war with us that we'd rather not have. But they're leaving us with an option that we don't want to have to do.” ........... Still, some are hopeful that the president’s latest threats are a means to get Iran back to the negotiating table. Mediators passed to Iran a proposal to deescalate the war with the U.S. that would establish a 10-day ceasefire in an effort to revive the agreement reached by the two countries last month, Reuters reported on Monday. ............ “Anyone talking about boots on the ground, I think, is disconnected from the administration and certainly disconnected from the president,” said Alex Gray, who served as National Security Council chief of staff during Trump’s first term. “They're pushing an agenda that has certainly no buy-in from the president and his team, and certainly doesn't reflect the Republican Party today.” ......... “As the U.S. military degrades the terrorist Iranian regime’s ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. .......... the military deaths and promises of revenge are casting a grim shadow over the summer campaign season, during which the president and his party were hoping to refocus on their popular tax cuts, Trump accounts for newborns and lower drug prices. ........ “The war has become a persistent dark cloud that is souring the national mood which typically depresses the base of the party in power and motivates supporters of the opposition,” said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.). ......... Administration allies believe there are a number of military options open to the president that fall short of boots on the ground, including escalating the U.S’s naval blockade and attacks on Iranian infrastructure. ......... Even though Trump last month conceded he was unsure if Americans had the “appetite” for a longer, broader war, some of the president’s supporters say Tehran is underestimating his tolerance for political risk.......... “They were hoping, because they’ve had a lot of experience with this, that they’ll simply outlast us,” Jeffrey said. But “Trump really has no choice. He put a compromise on the table. He’s not going to surrender, even if he loses the elections” in November. .......... “His patience has always been limited, but I think we're now seeing the consequences of that,” the person said. “A good indicator of where he intends to go is his massive defense budget request to Congress. He wants to ensure the United States has more than enough capability to sustain any future operations if necessary.” ......... In addition to the $1.5 trillion defense budget, the White House also requested $67 billion to cover the costs of the war. ...... That defense budget, however, is stalled in the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has argued that the legislation, which reliably becomes law each year, was tantamount to “a permission slip for that recklessness that we see occurring in Iran” and last week, Senate Democrats blocked it from advancing to the floor.

Monday, July 20, 2026

20: Iran

20: Trump

Office Hours: What Will Trump Do in Iran NOW? There's no good option, so will Trump take the least bad? .......... Trump’s war with Iran has resumed (it never really stopped). The U.S. is sending more warplanes to the Middle East. Two American service members were killed in an Iranian missile attack on Jordan, and a third is missing. The Strait of Hormuz is again closed. Meanwhile, Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement following his father’s funeral, saying “revenge is the will of our nation” and that Iran would act against “criminals whose names are known.” In response, Trump threatened to “completely decimate and destroy” Iran if assassination threats against him were acted upon. ............. How long can Iran continue the war? Its economy appears reasonably stable; it has exported oil sufficient to meet its needs. Its population has become used to sanctions and economic pain, and has no voice, in any event. As shown by its attack on Jordan, as well as those on Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, and Qatar, Iran has ample missile stocks and has also become more adept at evading U.S. air defense systems. ............ How long can the U.S. continue the war? America doesn’t have sufficient munitions to maintain the current bombing campaign indefinitely. World oil reserves are almost depleted, which means that continued blockage of the strait will cause even more economic pain. Oil has again topped $90 a barrel. Plus, there are midterm elections to think about.

Trump’s War on the Future, Monetary Edition Trying to punish Brazil for adopting a better payment system ............. Pix is essentially a digital version of the real, Brazil’s currency. As a Federal Reserve report from 2022 said, a central bank digital currency — which is what Pix is — “is analogous to a digital form of paper money.” Brazilian banks are required to offer Pix, which the Trumpists claim gives it an unfair advantage over debit cards and other payment methods. But this requirement is similar, at a fundamental level, to the requirement that all U.S. banks accept dollar notes as deposits and disburse dollar notes on demand, which few people would consider unfair. .................. Who is hurt by the advent of Pix? Brazilians’ ability to cheaply make instantaneous payments from their phones certainly hurts the business of Visa and Mastercard, which are both U.S. companies. But since when is it unfair business practice when companies lose business to a competitor that offers a better, cheaper product? For example, should we shut down the U.S. postal service because it offers better and cheaper mail delivery than UPS or FedEx? Should we shut down PayPal and Venmo because they compete with Mastercard and Visa? ............... Beyond concerns about Visa and Mastercard profits, Trump officials are reportedly concerned that Pix and similar payment systems elsewhere might challenge the international dominance of the dollar. In reality, Brazil is too small a player to make much of a dent in the world payments system. The dollar may, however, face a real challenge if the European Central Bank is able, as it hopes, to introduce a digital euro in 2029. If that happens, it’s not hard to imagine that a significant number of transactions that would otherwise have been made in dollars will be made in digital euros instead. ................. the reason people might switch to digital euros will be because the US won’t be offering an equally good means of payment. Why won’t there be a digital dollar? Not because it’s a bad idea — as Brazil has shown, it would be a very good idea. But there are powerful special interests that oppose any such move. ..............

Last year Republicans in the House passed a bill that didn’t just forbid the creation of a U.S. central bank digital currency; it prohibited any study of the issue by the Federal Reserve. “Don’t even think about parking here creating a digital dollar.”

................ Proponents of this ban claimed to have concerns about how a central bank digital currency would work. But it’s obvious that their real concern is that it would work too well. Crypto interests, in particular, are very worried that consumers who had access to digital dollars would lose interest in stablecoins and other cryptocurrency products, because these products, being risky and awkward to use, would not be competitive with a system that simply lets people make electronic payments in dollars. ............ Brazil’s success is especially galling to crypto promoters because it’s in such stark contrast to the results of another Latin American monetary experiment: El Salvador’s attempt to make Bitcoin a major means of payment. The government of President Nayib Bukele made Bitcoin legal tender and spent large sums trying to promote its use. Yet the effort failed: cryptocurrency never caught on as a means of payment, and the plunge in Bitcoin’s price since last fall has inflicted large losses on El Salvador’s government. ..............

If we can have a digital dollar, why not a public option for health insurance?

.............. the furious opposition to central bank digital currencies reminds me of the Trump administration’s all-out efforts to block development of wind and solar power. In both cases we see political players beholden to special interests — crypto when it comes to money, fossil fuels when it comes to energy — who claim to favor technological progress, but scream “not like that” when a superior technology doesn’t take the economy where they want it to go. ......... using tariffs to punish Brazil for its monetary achievements won’t succeed. Politically, the move will only strengthen Brazil’s President Lula. Economically, the reach of the tariffs will be limited by Trump administration fears about driving the prices of coffee, orange juice, beef and other goods even higher. And as Monica de Bolle at the Peterson Institute for International Economics argues, Trump’s tariffs have on balance strengthened Brazil’s position: “Trade diversion around the globe as a reaction to US tariffs has turned Brazil into an export powerhouse,” with Brazil, for example, capturing much of the Chinese soybean market.

The US and Iran have blown past red lines as they lurch back toward all-out war
Texas Hispanics swung hard to Trump. A new poll shows they’re furious at his deportations. A new survey of Hispanic business owners in Texas shows Democratic nominee James Talarico dominating......... Benny Melendez voted for President Donald Trump in 2024. But since Trump returned to the White House, it has been increasingly difficult for Melendez to run his small construction company in south Texas. He says immigration officers have detained workers at his job sites and while driving his company trucks. Since the beginning of 2025, more than 10 of those workers have been deported.......... The chaos of the past year-and-a-half has convinced Melendez to abandon his support for Trump and Republicans, and instead back the Democrat in this year’s U.S. Senate election, state Rep. James Talarico. .......... “How can we continue voting for someone that is targeting our community?” Melendez said. “There’s no way possible we’re going to support that. No way.” .............. One in five Hispanic business owners in Texas say they’ve had an employee deported in the past year ........... Seven in ten said their businesses had been impacted by Trump’s tariffs. Among those surveyed, Talarico holds a seven-point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP nominee, even though a plurality of the over 1,000 respondents self-identify as Republican. Almost one quarter who supported Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary now say they’ll back Talarico, while over half say they’ll back Paxton. .......... Hispanic voters around the country are swinging hard against him, thanks to the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown and the shaky economy. ............ “If you’ve got a small business of 10 people or so, and you get even one person deported, you can imagine what that does to the morale of that business unit and to the fear of the business owner.” .................. The Texas Senate race will be one of the nation’s most watched — and most expensive — this cycle. Early polling shows it in a dead heat: A New York Times/Siena poll released last month showed

Paxton and Talarico tied

. Among Hispanic voters, Talarico led by 32 points. In 2024, Trump won Texas Latinos by 10 points. .................. In a statement, Talarico offered an olive branch to Hispanic voters: “We should be supporting Hispanic small businesses — not crushing them under the weight of high costs and failed immigration policies,” he said. “Here’s my message to Hispanic communities across Texas: if you feel like you’ve been conned, if you feel like you’ve been let down by both political parties, if you feel like politicians aren’t doing anything to lower your costs or fix this broken immigration system — you’ve got a place in this campaign.” ................. “I didn’t like what Biden was doing here on the border,” Melendez said. “But now with Trump, it’s all the opposite, 180 degree change. He doesn’t let us work. He’s taking the best we have.” ............

blockquote class="twitter-tweet">

you can be austere in a bustling city

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 18, 2026

Spain’s Masterclass Overpowers Messi’s Magic in Deserved Victory

Photo Album: World Cup Final 2026: Sunnyside NY

Spain’s Masterclass Overpowers Messi’s Magic in Deserved Victory

In a match that pitted individual brilliance against collective excellence, Spain emerged triumphant over Argentina. While many, including this observer, tuned in firmly rooting for Lionel Messi and the Albiceleste, it quickly became evident that Spain was the superior side from the opening whistle.

Having never closely watched Spain prior to this encounter, the difference in quality was immediately striking. Spain dominated possession, controlled the tempo, and dictated the flow of the game. Their movements were synchronized, their passing precise, and their defensive structure appeared almost impenetrable. This was no one-off performance — it was the culmination of consistent displays throughout the tournament, where Spain had repeatedly dismantled opponents with the same disciplined approach.

Argentina, by contrast, relied heavily on moments of genius. We had seen it in the previous round against England, where the Three Lions took the lead only for Messi to produce one of those outbursts of pure magic that have defined his career. But against Spain, such individual sparks proved insufficient. A great player can elevate a team, yet a cohesive team can ultimately overpower even the greatest of individuals.

The cracks in Argentina’s setup were most visible in their discipline — or lack thereof. Repeated fouls signaled a lack of team cohesion under pressure. Several players pushed the boundaries until one crossed the line, resulting in a red card. Suddenly, Argentina faced the daunting task of holding off a rampant Spanish attack with only 10 men for roughly 30 minutes. Playing shorthanded against a side of Spain’s caliber is an uphill battle few teams survive.

Spain continued to probe with wave after wave of attacks, their patience and organization never wavering. They didn’t need a moment of genius — just clinical execution. Eventually, one strike found the net, and in a match of this caliber, one goal was all it took.

This was a well-deserved victory for Spain. Their style of play — built on control, defensive solidity, and relentless attacking pressure — offers a blueprint worth studying for any team aspiring to the highest levels of the game. While Messi’s presence ensured Argentina remained dangerous until the end, Spain’s collective strength proved decisive.

In the end, it wasn’t just a win for La Roja. It was a statement: sometimes, the team beats the player.


Spain’s Tactical Mastery in the 2026 World Cup Final: Control, Fluidity, and Defensive Solidity

Spain’s victory over Argentina in the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (1-0 AET, Ferran Torres’ extra-time winner) showcased a refined, possession-oriented system under Luis de la Fuente. It emphasized high pressing, positional rotations, and an impenetrable defensive structure that largely neutralized Lionel Messi’s threat.

Core Formation and Setup

Spain typically deployed a 4-3-3 or a fluid 4-2-3-1 that morphed into a 3-4-3 or 4-2-3-1 during build-up and transitions. Key personnel included:

  • Goalkeeper: Unai Simón (or David Raya).
  • Defense: Full-backs like Pedro Porro and Marc Cucurella (or Alejandro Grimaldo), with center-backs such as Pau Cubarsí and Aymeric Laporte providing progressive passing.
  • Midfield: Rodri as the deep-lying pivot, supported by Pedri, Fabián Ruiz, or Mikel Merino for creativity and control.
  • Attack: Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams (or Ferran Torres) on the wings, with a central forward like Mikel Oyarzabal or Dani Olmo linking play.

This setup allowed Spain to dominate midfield and stretch the pitch, aligning with the user’s observation of relentless attacking waves.

Key Tactical Principles

  1. Positional Play and Rotations
    Spain used "positional attacks" with frequent rotations. Full-backs pushed high, while midfielders dropped or inverted to create overloads. This fluidity made their shape hard to mark, allowing them to maintain possession (often exceeding 60-70% in key games) and probe defenses methodically.
  2. High Press and Intensity
    They applied coordinated pressing triggers, especially when Argentina attempted to build from the back. This disrupted Argentina’s rhythm and forced turnovers in advanced areas, feeding quick transitions.
  3. Defensive Structure
    Spain’s defense felt “impenetrable” due to a compact, well-organized block. Center-backs stepped up proactively, while the midfield screened effectively. Rodri’s positioning was pivotal in cutting passing lanes to Messi and limiting individual breakthroughs. This consistency across the tournament reflected structured training on compactness and recovery.
  4. Exploiting Width and Half-Spaces
    Wingers like Yamal provided directness and 1v1 threat, while inside forwards or No. 10s exploited half-spaces. This created multiple attacking options without relying on a single star, contrasting Argentina’s heavier dependence on Messi’s genius.

Match-Specific Adaptations vs. Argentina

Spain suffocated Messi through double-marking, intelligent positioning, and physical pressure, denying him time on the ball. They absorbed Argentina’s attempts to provoke chaos (including late fouls) and stayed disciplined.

The late red card to Argentina’s Enzo Fernández (second yellow for a reckless challenge) exemplified Spain’s ability to provoke frustration in opponents while maintaining their own cohesion. With Argentina reduced to 10 players, Spain ramped up pressure, leading to the decisive goal in extra time.

Why It Worked (and Why It’s Worth Studying)

  • Team Over Individual: Spain embodied “a team can beat a person” — their collective pressing, rotations, and defensive organization overcame Argentina’s moments of brilliance.
  • Versatility: The system adapts between control and verticality, suiting different opponents.
  • Modern Evolution: It blends tiki-taka heritage with higher intensity, youth integration (e.g., Yamal, Cubarsí), and set-piece efficiency.

Spain’s style under de la Fuente represents a blueprint for sustained dominance: technical excellence, tactical intelligence, and mental resilience. Their tournament run, culminating in this final, highlighted how disciplined structures can consistently outperform star-driven sides.



Tuesday, July 14, 2026

14: Messi

14: Hormuz

The stock market is on the verge of doing something that's never been observed in 155 years -- and it has worrisome ramifications for Wall Street

Suddenly, Hormuz is Less Crucial Than It Was Why? Because the real energy crunch is coming from the Russia/Ukraine war ........ And of course the overarching moral of this story is the immense folly and criminality of a war that has left America and the world in a much worse place than they would have been if Trump and his enablers had just left things alone — or, better yet, had preserved the pretty good deal Iran and Barack Obama had agreed to in 2015.

Trump says the US will take out Pickaxe Mountain in Iran "We're going to hit them very hard tonight and we're going to hit them hard tomorrow. And there's not a damn thing they can do about it," he said on the Hugh Hewitt Show.

Christian Bale explains why he daily drives a 2003 Toyota Tacoma despite being worth over $120M
Jeff Bezos' ex-wife MacKenzie Scott donated $26.3B in 5 years — yet she's richer now. The 'giving' math most people get wrong Beyond the numbers, Scott’s method is unusual. She operates through Yield Giving (5), the philanthropic platform she founded in 2022, and uses what’s known as trust-based philanthropy, a model the Chronicle of Philanthropy describes as providing unrestricted funding that nonprofits can spend as they see fit, with minimal application and reporting requirements (6).

Zelensky says the war’s next battlefield makes territory almost irrelevant — ‘It matters far less whose territory is larger’ “Russia is pummeling Ukraine with salvo after deadly salvo of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles; Ukraine is using ever more sophisticated and longer-range drones to drive Russia’s fleet away from Ukraine in the Black Sea, starve Russian-occupied Crimea and, most effectively, strike oil facilities and military installations deep inside Russia,” Schmemann writes............ “Long lines for gas in Moscow and black smoke billowing from a refinery in distant Omsk, and images of victims being pulled out of demolished apartment blocks in Kyiv tell the rest of the story.” ....... “If you stop the enemy on the battlefield, if you stop the war on land, and if you deny him dominance at sea … then the next battlefield becomes the sky,” the president said. “And frankly, in that contest it matters far less whose territory is larger.” ........ the Ukrainian president said that Ukraine needs 300 Patriot missiles for the winter, including 100 per month. ........ “Interceptors, and specifically Patriots, have replaced artillery shells as the indispensable weapon for Ukraine in what may well be the endgame of this war. ........... a “robot army” is changing ground warfare in the conflict. .............. “Battalions of ground robots — tracked and wheeled machines that deliver supplies, haul ammunition, evacuate the wounded, lay mines and, increasingly, hold land — now conduct thousands of missions every month........... That has made them an indispensable tool for Ukrainian infantrymen who spend monthslong rotations in buried bunkers hiding from flying drones,” the report said.

Newt Gingrich likens Iran strategy to Lincoln's 'Anaconda strategy' Newt Gingrich, former House Speaker, likens President Trump's Iran strategy to Abraham Lincoln's Civil War 'Anaconda strategy.' He details how the U.S. is methodically applying pressure on Iran, noting that allies are increasingly frustrated with Iran's actions, not America's. This measured approach aims to achieve long-term foreign policy objectives.

WSJ exposes Trump’s 'unprecedented' state capitalism According to the Wall Street Journal, President Donald Trump has sought to fuse government with business and create a “state capitalism” that is “unprecedented” in recent history. Many commenters have suggested, however, that “this is not state capitalism” but “another ism MAGA is always yelling about.” ............ As the Journal explains, Trump played an instrumental role in Apple CEO Tim Cook’s decision to go into business with the microchip producer Intel, which was struggling after sitting out the early AI boom. Trump pushed Cook to hire Intel to manufacture some of Apple’s new device chips, and Intel has since shown a dramatic turnaround — a financial windfall that has benefited Trump personally, as he bought a “significant share” of Intel stock before its value shot up after the deal with Apple was announced last month. .................. “I think we found the communists,” posted HuffPost White House correspondent S.V. Date. “Something something communism,” posted Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson. “Seems kind of socialist,” noted journalist Brahm Resnik. “State ownership,” came another response. “And he calls Mamdani a commie.” ........... A year ago, the CATO Institute wrote that Trump’s policies mirror the “populist authoritarian movement” spoken of by libertarian thinker Roy A Childs Jr. when in 1982 he warned that the New American Right was working to build a country that would be “hostile to free markets and committed to some form of managed economy. Forty-three years later, Donald Trump is president, and the Wall Street Journal’s chief economics commentator describes his policies as ‘state capitalism,’ a ‘hybrid between socialism and capitalism in which the state guides the decisions of nominally private enterprises.’” The Journal takes things even further, arguing that

Trump is “imitating the Chinese Communist Party by extending political control ever deeper into the economy.”

.............. Another example came last week, when Trump announced the launch of his “Freedom Fuel Network,” which imposed price controls on a series of Philadelphia gas stations, prompting a slew of comparisons to the “ism” so vocally reviled by Trump. As one commenter said of the news, “I thought we were fighting against communism?”