Lessons From PA: Race And Globalization Must Be Addressed

  • All 50 states will get to vote, Hillary is not dropping out. It is a good thing that all 50 states will have a say in the nomination process. When was the last time that happened? Perhaps this is what Howard Dean meant by his 50 state strategy a few years back.
  • The superdelegates will decide. I hope they decide not long after the final primary/caucus. I hope they don't wait until the convention.
  • Barack will be the nominee.
  • Hillary will be his running mate.
These are the obvious observations to be made. And then there are other macro ones.
  • That superhit speech on race was not really about race, it was about Jeremiah Wright. The first black president to be has yet to give a speech about how he will take race relations in America to the next level. So far his strategy on race is to not talk about race. I disagree with it. That is like saying marriage does not need conversations.
  • I guess you could say these two by sheer presence in the White House will take race and gender to the next level. I disagree. I saw Indira Gandhi at the helm in India. India remained as sexist as ever. (Another Speech On Race Will Bring Victory In PA)
  • The biggest thing the next president and the president after that will do is help turn America into a full fledged knowledge economy. Hostility on trade might give solace to the "bitter" folks, but there is no turning the tide. An agricultural America became industrial, an industrial America will become a knowledge economy. There is more wealth in the future for most people, but you do have to manage the transition well. It has been done before, it can be done again. Major economic transformations are possible.
  • Who will tie the bell round the cat's neck? Who will tell the small town voters? Barack tried. Hillary pounced on him for trying.
  • Universal health, lifelong education: those are the buzzwords. But you need something more immediate for those already hurting. Better trade deals will help. I like the idea of using trade deals to spread democracy, human rights and unionization, better child labor laws, and so on in other countries. Better trade tools than W's berserk military.
  • Globalization has so far favored capital in both the rich and the poor countries. We progressives have to design a globalization that puts human capital on par with financial and physical capital.
And then there are basic political gimmicks. That Osama ad was Bill Clinton's idea. He pulled dirty on Barack also in New Hampshire. Obama 2008 made the mistake of crying foul. What it instead should have done is said it was Hillary's misadventure in Iraq that got America's eyes off the Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Bottom line is Hillary was going to win PA, it was only a matter of narrowing her margin. We did narrow it from 20 points to 10 points in just weeks.

In The News

Clinton Captures Pennsylvania San Francisco Chronicle exit polls show nearly 70 percent of Pensylvanians think Clinton went too far in attacking Obama. .... 55 percent, have not gone to college ...... Clinton won among white men 55-45 percent, less than in Ohio but a strong showing. She won overwhelmingly among white women 64-36 percent. ...... Obama has a huge advantage with more than $40 million in the bank; the Clinton campaign is in debt. A narrow win in Pennsylvania will undermine her ability to raise cash and impose its own hard reality. ...... Gun owners, church goers and rural residents went for Clinton about 60-40. ...... Clinton wins the overall white vote -- 80 percent of the electorate -- by 20 points. ...... The one in five voters deciding in the final week went for Clinton 58 to 42. ...... Seniors, another big voting bloc, went for Clinton overwhelmingly, 61-38. ...... Obama won amost all African American voters, 92-8. He is also winning among upper-income voters and recently minted Democrats. ...... Essentially, the race is where it was six long weeks ago. ...... The idea that superdelegates would hand her the nomination while he has more pledged delegates elected by voters sounds as crazy today as it did two months ago, and as disastrous for Democrats. ...... Neither she nor Obama were included in the country's founding documetns, she said in her first mention of her rival. "This generation will grow up taking for granted that an African American or a woman can be president." .......... She vows to turn "promises to action," "words to solutions" and "hope to reality." ...... Obama: He looks upbeat and confident. He's in Indiana, the next "decisive" state. ....... two wars, an economy in recession, a planet in peril. ...... With 85 percent of the Pennsylvania vote in , Clinton has the double-digit lead she fought for, ahead 55 to 45 percent.
Clinton wins another primary - Democrats shrug San Francisco Chronicle Al Gore, who is estranged from the Clintons. ....... Obama's argument that he will win California hands down in the fall ....... he can put in play smaller ones like Virginia that she can't touch. ...... Obama's glaring weakness among the working-class whites Democrats ..... Obama's almost insurmountable lead in pledged delegate votes rests to a surprising extent on his victories in small caucuses, involving comparatively few voters, in deeply Republican states like Alaska and Idaho. His bigger primary victories are heavily weighted to Southern states such as Georgia and Mississippi that have large African American populations but are highly unlikely to vote Democratic in the fall. It is a point Clinton, her husband and her campaign have made with rising exasperation. ........ "If anybody thinks that I'll lose New York and California in the general election, there's no chance of that happening," Obama said today. ...... a victory that not only allows us to take over the White House but also will allow us to govern ...... Obama has won six swing states (Virginia, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado and Iowa) to Clinton's four (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire), leaving Obama with more potential electoral votes. ..... Obama is polling better than Clinton in California against McCain.
Clinton gets make-or-break win in Pennsylvania Boston Globe "Don't write her off," her campaign chairman, Terry McAullife, told CNN from the ballroom. "She's fighting every day." ..... He started the month with more than $41 million on hand to spend on the primary campaign, while Clinton was $1 million in debt. ...... Obama is favored in four states -- North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, which award a total of 198 pledged delegates. Clinton is expected to do well in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico, whose delegate counts total 134. Guam and Indiana appear to be toss-ups. ...... The battle for Pennsylvania grew especially testy in the last days. Clinton ran a TV ad featuring an image of Osama bin Laden and implying that Obama is not tough enough to be president. Obama countered with an ad accusing Clinton of running a campaign of "fear.'' ....... Despite a frenzied, six-week campaign to shake up each other's base, the electorate largely split as expected. ..... No matter who they voted for, 54 percent of Democratic voters said they believe that Obama will be the eventual nominee, while 43 percent said Clinton will win the nomination, according to the exit polling.
Barack Obama's team stays buoyant Los Angeles Times
Why Clinton Won Pennsylvania
CBS News an electorate consistently divided on factors like education, race and income and also newly divided along religious lines. ..... intense media coverage of Obama's recent statements regarding small town voters, and a consistent characterization of him as an elitist both by the media and by the campaigns of Clinton and John McCain, these pre-existing social divides grew larger in this first contest since the story broke. ....... Clinton won 75 percent of the vote from white Democrats with a high school diploma or less - three times Obama's vote among these voters - compared to 56 percent of those with more education. ....... Part of Obama's ability to close the large lead Clinton initially had in Pennsylvania was a concerted voter registration effort - one which paid off for him. Among today's Pennsylvania Democratic voters 14 percent reported that they had newly registered as Democrats. Among these new Democratic voters Obama bested Clinton by 20 points - 59 percent to 39 percent.