Barackface

Sunday, May 04, 2014

Maybe JD(U) Really Is In Trouble, Maybe Not

Sharad Yadav openly castigating Nitish is a very bad sign, worse than a JD(U) candidate walking out of the race at the last minute to throw his support to the Congress candidate a few weeks ago.

This is like Sharad Yadav, a Yadav, finally woke up and threw his support behind Laloo Yadav, another Yadav. Caste loyalties run deep in India, especially Bihar.

Sharad Yadav is an armchair intellectual incapable holding an executive office.

Maybe the surveys are not that off. Nitish really will finish behind Modi and Laoo in Bihar.

This is Sharad Yadav acting ungrateful. He is bookish, but he has never been a mass based leader. He has needed mass based leaders like Laloo and Nitish to win elections.

And what after Nitish having just spent weeks camping out in Madhepura from where Sharad Yadav is contesting and has been feared to lose.

The real issue here is the Yadavs in Madhepura are with Laloo and Pappy Yadav and Sharad is miffed about that.

Sharad Yadav seems to think both Laloo and Nitish became Chief Ministers because of him. Hum ne bana diya. This is arrogant and inaccurate. It is the other way round. Laloo and Nitish made him MP.

This does not mean the JD(U) will split. Sharad Yadav thinks himself as senior to Nitish, which he is. He is an armchair intellectual who thinks the caste reality in Bihar is a nuisance, and he is right.

Sharad Yadav's latest talk is that his party unity stands like "a rock." Enough said.

Friday, May 02, 2014

Secular Front

English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Layers Of Support For Nitish

On May 16 either Modi will become PM, or the country will go bipolar. A formal Secular Front might emerge. Yes, that could be its precise name. What brings all these non-BJP parties together? It is the "secular" issue. So that might as well be the name. You are looking at a coalition where the Congress for the first time is a formal, junior partner. And there is a formal coordination committee, and the government lasts a full five years.

All parties will not be equal. The coalition itself will have mini-coalitions inside of it. The Third Front will take the lead because the Third Front parties will collectively be bigger than the Congress. Mamata's Federal Front might bring together the three ladies.

So the Third Front of the Janata Parivar parties, the Left, and a few others, the Federal Front of the three ladies, the Congress, AAP, and others, and independents, together they could constitute a formal Secular Front.

Modi has run an impressive campaign. And I am not going to guess as to the outcome. Like I said, I will just wait for the outcome.

Thursday, May 01, 2014

Is Nitish Really In A Bad Shape?

Lalu Prasad Yadav, at a political meeting in Kesariya, Bihar, India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

There is relentless talk in the Indian media that the fight in Bihar is between Modi and Laloo, and that Nitish has been relegated to the third spot. Could that be possible? I find that hard to believe that the best performing Chief Minister in India would be in such a bad shape. But then --

Nitish made it sound like he might have been okay with L.K.Advani, he was just unhappy with Modi. To the Indian "secularists," Advani is not "secular."
I personally think Modi is way better than Advani.
Nitish has not made a clear case. He should have made the case that yes, he is in the running for Prime Minister, and that he can do so much more for Bihar from the center. Instead Biharis who like him have been left in the fear that should he move to Delhi, all development work in Bihar will come to a stop.
I don't know how well or not Nitish will do this time. But I can tell you he will get a 60% majority in the assembly elections next year. By the time he is done, he will have stayed in power for 20 years.
This time the Third Front party that will have the most MPs will be able to make a claim.
That is not to say I know Modi will not make it. He might. He is the only one who has run a national campaign.
If Nitish is not doing well, it can be argued, you can't win if you are not even running.

I don't begrudge Laloo. He was as magical a Railway Minister as Nitish has been magical as Chief Minister.