Hillary Will Get The Black Vote, Obama Will Get The White Vote

A few months into 1992, most of America still thought Bill Clinton had a rich father. The guy reminded people of John Kennedy. It is called not having name recognition. It did not matter that the guy did not even have a father, let alone a rich father, the facts be damned as far as the voters were concerned.

Today half of America has never heard of Barack Obama. That is very okay at this stage. That is normal.

A few months back I was at this political event, and there was this young black professional from the music industry. And I witnessed he had never heard of Obama. At first I thought he was just pulling my leg. But he really did not know who Obama was. I was flabbergasted. Seeing that he asked me if I knew, and he said the name of some obscure music figure. I said no. He had made his point!

These blacks in South Carolina who have gone ahead and endorsed Clinton, they likely never have heard of Obama, and in their mind they probably think they are endorsing Bill Clinton. I would not be surprised.

Like this friend of mine from Albania, smart guy, went on to get a Ph.D. from Virginia Tech, and it is late 1998, and it looks like Bush is going to run for president. I tell that to him. And he is like, come on, man, get a life, you lost once, that is enough. He thought it was the elder Bush who was running.

When most of America thinks Clinton, they think Bill Clinton. But Hillary is Hillary and Bill is Bill. Hillary is no Bill. She is probably smarter than Bill Clinton, as in SAT smart, but she does not have his political instincts. She is much less comfortable with retail politics.

And that dissonance is going to get clearer and clearer the more people see her on the campaign trail. So she has no way to go but down.

For Obama it is no way but up. When people get to know him, they like him. And he is the first Obama they ever heard of in life. So there will be no dissonance.

And Obama not being wildly popular with the blacks is probably a plus for Obama. He is not pretending to be a reincarnation of MLK. His offering is very postracial. He is saying I am applying for a specific job, and I am the best person for that job, hire me. He is not saying, black people, come with me, I will liberate you. That was MLK, that was another era.

Just like most whites, most blacks have never heard of Barack Obama. And that is okay for now. Give them time. They are not late. We are early.



In The News

Political Memo Clinton Reminds New Hampshire, I’m With Bill New York Times
Clinton on Iraq: Is nuance enough? Kansas.com
Kudos to ABC's Tapper: Shows Hillary Clinton's Flip-Flop on Iraq NewsBusters
2 key black SC leaders throw support to Clinton Florida Times-Union
Clinton, Giuliani pull ahead in poll USA Today
Sen. Hillary Clinton Refuses to Acknowledge Making Mistake Over ... Bay Area Indymedia
Senator Clinton Wraps Up Trip To New Hampshire NY1

State considers moving up primary Auburn Citizen
Early primary may boost Hillary, Rudy The Australian
Barack Obama v. John Howard The National Interest Online
Barack Obama: Inarticulate Gaff Blogger News Network
Special Report Files Another Hit Job on Barack Obama News Hounds
Sen. Barack Obama Apologizes for Saying US Troops 'Wasted' NewsMax.com
MO'KELLY REPORT: The War on Barack Obama Eurweb.com
The Ever-'Present' Obama Yahoo! News
Obama Apologizes for Saying Troops' Lives 'Wasted' ABC News
John McCain Fears Iraq 'Tet Offensive' Christian Broadcasting Network
The Weekly Worst Of McCain Huffington Post

S. Carolina Black Leaders Back Clinton Guardian Unlimited, UK
Endorsement raises doubts about Obama Boston Globe, MA
Endorsement Raises Doubts About Obama ABC News
S. Carolina Black Leaders Back Clinton CBS News, NY
S. Carolina Black Leaders Back Clinton ABC News
S. Carolina black leaders back Clinton San Jose Mercury News, CA
Many key Dems dislike Clinton 'caution' Chicago Sun-Times, IL
Two South Carolina black leaders back Clinton WLUC-TV, MI
Endorsement Raises Doubts About Obama Business Portal 24 (press release), Germany
Endorsement raises doubts about Obama Sacramento Bee, CA
AP: 2 Key Black SC Leaders Give Support To Clinton WCBS-TV New York, NY
Black leaders endorse Clinton over Obama WJBC News, IL
Clinton's presidential bid draws support from SC Poughkeepsie Journal, NY
Two State Senators Says They'll Support Hillary WLTX.com, SC
"Caution vs. Courage" The Conservative Voice, NC
Hillary Clinton & John Edwards: Caution vs. Courage National Ledger, AZ
An early scramble for money for Edwards Knoxville News Sentinel (subscription), TN
South Carolina black leaders throw support to Clinton ABC7Chicago.com, IL
State Senator: Obama Would Cause Every Democrat To Lose WCSH-TV, ME
2 Key Black South Carolina Leaders Support Clinton WCIV, SC
Edwards Stumbles Out of the Gate Human Events, DC
League of Her Own GovExec.com
Broder: Let's hope candidates keep debate going Topeka Capital Journal (subscription), KS
The Political Lynching of Barack Obama ThugLifeArmy.com, AZ
John Edwards Visits Dartmouth OpEdNews, PA
Hillary's Lead Down to Only 5 Pts? RealClearPolitics Blog
If you ain't from the South, son, Dem votes are tough Knoxville News Sentinel (subscription), TN
LeBoutillier: Hillary, Rudy and McCain NewsMax.com, FL
Fresh face in DC has made a believer out of me New York Daily News, NY
H. Brandt Ayers: Candidates — Y'all come Anniston Star (subscription), AL

S. Carolina black leaders back Clinton Boston Herald, MA
S. Carolina Black Leaders Back Clinton Washington Post Ford said he was swayed by calls from former President Clinton and Hillary Clinton.

Jupiter And Obama

An astronomer can tell you where Planet Jupiter will be in 23 months. I am telling you Obama is the next President Of The United States. It is similar.

I am not going to pretend I am objective about Obama. His candidacy is highly emotional to me. My loyalty to Obama is tribal. It is a Third World thing to me.

But my Jupiter comparison is objective, or as objective as is possible in political dynamics. I am talking science.

So if you are someone who needs to place his or her bets, I am giving you a clear hint. Go with it and be a winner.

The New School Event: My Speech To Be Delivered
My Role In The April Revolution: The Butterfly Effect

On The Web

Jupiter orbit

In The News

Obama seeks ‘stay fresh’ formula as he tries to widen appeal Times Online
Obama Campaigns in Iowa After Announcing His Presidential Bid Bloomberg
Big turnout expected for Obama's Chicago rally ABC7Chicago.com
Harvard picks first woman president Reuters
NH Voters Seek Clarity on Clinton Vote Wyoming News
Clinton Terms Iraq Conflict a Civil War New York Times
In New Hampshire, Clinton Owns Up to Her Vote on Iraq War New York Times
Democratic Primary: State of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton Bayou Buzz
Obama draws contrast with Clinton over Iraq war Reuters AlertNet
Obama draws contrast with Clinton over Iraq war Washington Post
Clinton and Obama: A Study in Contrasts ABC News
Hu's African tour a huge success: China Hindu
Gates to Putin: 'One Cold War is enough' Houston Chronicle
Iran refuses to give up nuclear program Houston Chronicle
Iran reformists want US to tone it down Los Angeles Times
Google encounters hurdles in selling radio ads CNET News.com
WiMAX set for Egypt debut ITP.net
Xerox works deal with startup to rival Google PC World Magazine
In a Search Refinement, a Chance to Rival Google New York Times
Powerset Aims to Leapfrog Google InternetNews.com
Aishwarya Rai need not quit movies: Amitabh Bachchan Apun Ka Choice
Hannibal Rising (18) Independent
A Ho-hum Hannibal TIME
Life of Young Hannibal Lecter Comes to Big Screen Voice of America

Obama Is Running For President Of The United States

In The News

Barack Obama vows to change the course of American politics
Hindu, India - 23 minutes ago
New York: On a day steeped in historical symbolism, Senator Barack Obama on Saturday officially launched his bid to become America's first black President with an emotional vow to fundamentally change American politics.
Like Lincoln Before Him, Barack Obama Looks to Save the Union AXcess News
Senator Barack Obama Launches White House Run Al-Jazeerah.info
Barack Obama launches US presidential bid Dominican Today

Australia PM Howard Rips Barack Obama Over Iraq
Bayou Buzz, LA - 2 hours ago
Don’t count Australia 's Prime Minister John Howard as a Barack Obama supporter. On Sunday Howard ripped into Obama over the American presidential candidate’s position on Iraq . Obama declared his candidacy in Springfield Illinois and said that Iraq ... "I think that will just encourage those who want to completely destabilize and destroy Iraq, and create chaos and a victory for the terrorists to hang on and hope for an Obama victory," Howard said on Nine Network television. ..... "If I were running Al Qaeda in Iraq, I would put a circle around March 2008 and be praying as many times as possible for a victory, not only for Obama but also for the Democrats."
Australia's PM Rips On Barack Obama WISC
Australia's PM Rips On Barack Obama NBC 11.com

Obama says voters curious on his faith
San Jose Mercury News, CA - 17 minutes ago
IOWA FALLS, Iowa - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said Sunday he does not think voters have a litmus test on religion, whether evangelical Christianity or his childhood years in the Muslim faith.
Obama calls name recognition big hurdle Boston Globe Obama noted that he has an Iraq war proposal, which he called "the most specific plan for getting out of Iraq." ..... The senator has called for capping the number of U.S. troops in Iraq and then beginning to withdraw them on May 1. He wants a complete pullout of combat brigades by March 31, 2008. ..... For those who seek to learn more about Obama's positions, he said his two best-selling books offer plenty of insight. ..... The books, he said, "offer a blueprint and more depth than anyone previously at this stage in a presidential campaign."
Obama Calls Name Recognition Big Hurdle Washington Post

On Biden And Obama
Post Chronicle - 2 hours ago
Senator Joe Biden shot his presidential campaign squarely in the foot recently when he referred to fellow senator and Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama as "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a ...
The perils of Obama Coshocton Tribune
Grapsing Obama's big picture Chicago Sun-Times
Race at centre of Obama's candidacy Independent Online Joe Biden .... "Look," he declared, "you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that's a storybook, man." ..... The remark was of course profoundly politically incorrect, and profuse apologies were instantly on their way to Jesse Jackson, Alan Keyes and Al Sharpton, all blacks who have run for the White House in recent years. ..... to the white majority of the country he hardly seems black at all. .... a patented "Only in America" moment, a testament to the country's astonishing mobility, its endless flux, and its capacity to reinvent itself. ..... If he becomes the 44th, he will face challenges more subtle but in some respects as daunting as the Civil War: a country whose international reputation has never been lower, struggling to extricate itself from a disastrous foreign war, and whose global dominance is threatened by the ascent of China and India....... the most exciting politician of the day. ..... Three years ago, he was all but unknown. .... Obama's appeal is multi-layered ..... he was born in Hawaii - about as far away from Washington as it is possible to be born and still be eligible to run for president. ...... first black, and youngest, president of the Harvard Law Review. ....... Obama one of a select group of blacks - Tiger Woods and Colin Powell come to mind - who transcend race. Whites do not feel threatened by them. ..... African-Americans are not flocking to the Obama banner. And why should they? He does not share their slave ancestry, and grew up mainly among whites. ........ Obama counts on sidestepping the issue by making race irrelevant. He said last week, "If we do a good job in letting people know who I am and what I stand for, they'll make their judgment not on race but how well they think I can lead the country."

Google wins big as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama battle
ZDNet.com blogs - 1 hour ago
As the presidential contenders increasingly declare their candidacies, Google’s winnings increase as well. Since Hillary Clinton announced last month, Joe Biden, Rudy Giuliani and Barack Obama have also announced their official presidential intentions.
Barack the Vote? Rolling Stone
Streisand Backs Three Democrats Jewtastic

Australian leader slams Barack Obama for Iraq policy
WQAD, IL - 15 hours ago
SYDNEY, Australia Australian Prime Minister John Howard slammed Senator Barack Obama (ber-AHK' oh-BAH'-muh) over his opposition to the Iraq War, saying that Obama's proposals would spell disaster for the Middle East.
AP Interview: Obama says name recognition biggest hurdle WQAD
Obama faces competition for SC black voters Rock Hill Herald
GOP Questions Obama's Lincoln References, Calls For Details WBBM780

Obama's dreams stir interest at HU event
Daily Press, VA - 12 hours ago
Barack Obama, D-Ill., did not receive an instant coronation at the gathering Saturday at Hampton University. The first-term senator announced Saturday morning in Springfield, Ill.
With Obama in mind, blacks told to vote, not on race, but on issues Buffalo News
Some wonder: Is Obama black enough? Minneapolis Star Tribune (subscription)
'State of the Black Union' draws thousands Concord Monitor