Saturday, January 19, 2008

Become Aggressive, Or Become Adlai Stevenson


We Won Nevada

We got 13 delegates to Clinton's 12. I am counting that for victory. Al Gore got more popular votes than Bush in 2000. Millions more. But the way the system works is.

New Kind Of Politics Does Not Mean Slap Me

When you get hit, you hit back. You let no attack go unanswered, no false claim about you go unchallenged. That probably is the fundamental law of campaigning, if there is such a thing. If the smear emails say you are a Muslim - and what is wrong with being a Muslim, asks the Buddhist - and you don't reach out to that same audience with a clarification that you happen to be a Christian, then people are going to believe you are a Muslim. There are emails out there claiming Barack is a commie, goodness.

This is not an argument against the politics of hope, the new kind of politics. I am not preaching slash and burn. I am not saying you put out viral emails claiming Hillary is a Sikh, or that she is a Maoist. No.

But you do have to make people feel that you do notice when you get hit, and that you do hit back. You can hit back with humor, with simple clarification, or a clever phrase. You can use the rebuttals to draw attention to issues. Example.

Hillary: I am a doer, not a talker.
Barack: What has she done on Iraq?

If Barack refuses to accept this fundamental law of campaigning, he is not JFK, he is Adlai Stevenson.

Engaging Hillary is also the best strategy going into February 5. That is how you will get equal media attention. The first time Barack moved nationally was when he first engaged Hillary: The Exchange. Remember?

Politics continues to be a contact sport. All the new kind of politics means is that that contact does not have to be ugly. It can be matter of fact, it can be playful, it can be humorous. On the other hand, it can be terse. It can be pointed, barbey.

Iraq: The Gift That Keeps Giving

Hillary messed up on the defining issue for a generation. I could design a rebuttal for everything Hillary ever says to point out to her mistake on Iraq.

Big Speech

Barack must give a big speech on how he will take race relations in America to a whole new level if only to avoid a white backlash on February 5 to his impending South Carolina victory. You can't be someone wanting to become the first black president - no, that is not Billie Clinton - and avoid race as an issue. You can turn it into a big advantage. If you do it right, white America will vote you because you are black, not inspite of it.

The speech is at the bottom of this page: JFK, Obama Parallels: Catholic, Black.

Issue Whips To Raise Money

Barack has half a million online donors. He beats Hillary big time there. He must issue online whips to raise big money. He should be shameless on this count. How about a goal of $2 million per day for every day after South Carolina? Got to spend big in the big media markets.

If Barack has an Iraq advantage, he also has a money advantage in having so many online donors, more than all other individuals in both parties combined. He must milk these two cows relentlessly. Otherwise Hillary plays even on most other counts.

Good Job On Reagan

Barack's positive comment on Reagan was a masterstroke. That played well in rural Nevada.

Hillary Cried Again, But Noone Saw The Tears

In New Hampshire she showed tears. In Nevada she exploited the Monica name to rally the women behind her. That was clever, I guess.

Money Is Talking

Both Barack and Hillary raised more than $100 million each during 2007. That should be indication this race is going down the wire. It will stay close.

40-60 In CA, NY, 70-30 In IL

If Barack could do this, he will win February 5. He will do real well in NYC. NYC will make up for Hillary's possibly better performance upstate.

In The News

Obama Edges Clinton in Delegate Count Washington Post The Nevada Democratic caucus has turned into a kids' soccer game: everybody is a winner. ..... pointed to Obama's support across the state ..... "a demonstration of what a strong general election candidate [Obama] will be." ...... increasingly this is going to turn into a contest of delegates
Clinton Defeats Obama in Nevada Vote New York Times her strength among Hispanic voters, who comprise a large share of the electorate in several upcoming states ...... “including rural areas where Democrats have traditionally struggled.” ...... Clark County, home to Las Vegas and its influential union blocs, was supporting Mrs. Clinton by an 11-point margin ..... more than 107,000 Nevada voters attended the caucuses ...... the most mysterious among the early-voting states. There was no clear front runner, no reliable polling data, and no institutional history. ..... At the Flamingo hotel, one of the at-large caucus sites on the Las Vegas Strip, it was a chaotic scene. ..... A boxed lunch was served and the proceedings were translated into Spanish. ..... “Hillary has more experience – and she has Bill!”
Analysis: New Tone in Democratic Race The Associated Press Clinton laid down a winning hand in Nevada. So did Barack Obama. ...... shifts the fight to the South, where Obama is relying on black voters ..... Obama was able to salvage a foothold in the race and keep Clinton from claiming a full dose of momentum. ....... Six out of 10 of these attending the state's caucuses were women and nearly half of them backed her ....... More than half of white voters entering the caucuses said they supported Clinton; one in three said they backed Obama. The white vote made up two-thirds of the overall vote. ...... "Obama has to really take South Carolina to reassert his place in the order." ...... He headed home to Chicago while the caucuses were under way and planned no public appearances. His campaign, however, trumpeted the delegate victory and noted that Obama had closed a 25-point lead that Clinton had enjoyed in the polls in November. ..... no sign the race will turn genteel in the South. ...... the New York senator "does not respect our people." ...... South Carolina, no stranger itself to fight night politics.
Analysis: Obama's Age Gap: Is It Race? CBS News Older Americans Have So Far Proven Unwilling To Vote For Barack Obama ..... Obama’s weak performance so far among older voters substantially increases the odds against him scoring big victories in the slew of states voting on February 5th ...... Nationally, Clinton led Obama 44 percent to 18 percent among voters over 65 ... in Nevada, a dazzling 36 percent of the primary voters were over 60 ...... When asked if the whole country was ready to elect a black president, just 54 percent said yes. By contrast, 65 percent said the country was ready to elect a woman president. ..... a pattern that could be a key to making Hillary Clinton the first female presidential nominee in American history.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama swap poison as muddled ... Times Online he was conforming to the caricature the Clintons have painted of him as the candidate of the well-educated liberal elite, rather than the sons and daughters of toil ....... a nasty racial undertone perilously close to the surface. ..... shored up her base among women by appealing for their sympathy over the scandal of Monica Lewinsky ........ California, which supplies one-tenth of the delegates ...... Clinton instantly went on the warpath, claiming that voters had been told, “they shouldn’t come or can’t support the candidate of their choice”. She further alleged that workers were threatened with the sack if they did not back Obama, but did not provide any examples. ...... An irascible Bill Clinton claimed to have personally witnessed voter suppression by union officials with daughter Chelsea and lost his temper when challenged about the lawsuit brought by his wife’s supporters to prevent casino workers voting at their workplace. .... mocking Hillary’s claim of having more experience than him. .... presumed it was “through osmosis, as a consequence of having been first lady” because he saw “no management experience” on her CV. ....... “Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that Richard Nixon did not and Bill Clinton did not” ......... “That’s what happens when you’re in Washington too long. You don’t speak English any more.” ...... disappointed to see the former president “descend from the high place he’s been and become an attack dog”. ..... anonymous leaflets were circulating at the university rally calling Obama the candidate of the “casino bosses”. ...... “I used to be a big admirer of the Clintons but they’ve been dirtying the pool. I’m seeing them do things I used to defend them over when they were in power.” But he was pessimistic about Obama’s long-term prospects of winning the nomination: “We’re seeing the same old political machine at work that used to wag the dog.” ....... It’s all a facade. You can tell because as soon as Obama became a threat, she started to twist and turn every word he said. ........ Clinton appeared to belittle Martin Luther King as a civil rights dreamer rather than a doer ...... African-American voters could still tilt the race in Obama’s favour, but at the risk of sending anxious white voters in Clinton’s direction. ...... From Adlai Stevenson to Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, Bill Bradley and, in 2004, Howard Dean, the reformers have always lost. ........ very nearly an even fight, the most even I have seen in my lifetime. ...... California with 441 delegates and New York, Clinton’s home state as senator, with 281 ..... the Clintons have been playing the race card against Obama in the hope of driving a “wedge” between black and white voters ..... “It is so obvious what they’re doing. They’re telling African-American voters, ‘You know an African-American can’t win so vote for us as the next best thing’, and telling white voters, ‘Look, these people are trying to take over. Is that what you want?’ ” ....... Connor drew the line at supporting Obama, repeating the increasingly common smear spread by viral e-mails that the Illinois senator could be the “Manchurian” candidate – a reference to the film in which the president is a sleeper agent for the communists. “A lot of people will vote against him just because his middle name is Hussein.” ...... Georgia, a Super Tuesday state with 103 delegates ....... Obama could win more states than Clinton on Super Tuesday but that she will win more delegates. That would boost Obama’s contention that he is best placed to win the support of independents and disaffected Republicans in a general election, and would be used to tempt the “super delegates” to him.
Clinton loses support among black Democrats Boston Globe Clinton's support among black Democrats has cratered as racial politics emerged in the nomination fight ...... Eleanor Holmes Norton, who represents Washington, D.C., in Congress, joined the chorus, warning Clinton to "watch out'' in her comments on race. "The black community is not only sensitive on race,'' Norton said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today. It is "super-sensitive on race.'' ...... Among all Democrats, Clinton still leads 42 percent to Obama's 33 percent

Nevada settled, South Carolina up for CNN International In Nevada's contest, Clinton led rival Barack Obama by 6 percentage points with 98 percent of precincts reporting ..... Although Clinton won the overall state vote, Obama took more delegates because of the areas where he won. Obama picked up 13 delegates to Clinton's 12. ..... Clinton's campaign organization helped hand her the win. ..... "Her people are efficient, fervent. They were there first, they were calling people, they had a list of voters they were using to call people, making sure people came out. They had signs, they had shirts, they had a clear chain of command" ....... Romney captured 94 percent of the voters who identified themselves as Mormon, which made up 25 percent of all Republicans participating in the GOP caucuses. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints estimates there are 170,000 members living in Nevada.
Teen 'Bhutto assassin' arrested the militants may have wanted to put the cyanide into the municipal water supply. ..... The growing bloodshed has cast doubts on the ability of the security forces to maintain peace during the campaign for parliamentary elections on February 18. It has also sparked calls from opposition politicians for President Pervez Musharraf to step down. ..... a five-person squad was dispatched to Rawalpindi, where Bhutto was killed, by Baitullah Mehsud, a militant leader with strong ties to al Qaeda and an alliance with the Taliban in nearby Afghanistan. ....... But Maulvi Mohammed Umar, a purported spokesman for Mehsud, dismissed the report. "It is just government propaganda ... we have already clarified that we are not involved in the attack on Benazir Bhutto." ...... vague allegations that elements within the government might have been involved in the assassination. ....... Most registered voters say Clinton and Obama -- as well as McCain -- have the necessary leadership skills and vision to be president

Bill Clinton accuses Obama supporters Independent, UK
Romney wins Republican caucuses in Nevada; Democrats Clinton ... The Canadian Press Former President Bill Clinton was a constant presence as well in a state he carried twice on his own in 1992 and 1996.
Campaigns Face Common Foe in Nevada: Confusion New York Times “I’m like, what the heck is caucusing?” Vickie Francovich ..... “Where do you go?” ..... 520 Democratic caucus sites ..... in his closing argument to voters, Mr. Obama spent an exceptional amount of time dwelling on Mrs. Clinton. He repeatedly mentioned her by name, reflecting a sense by some Democrats — and worry among his own advisers — that she indeed held an advantage. ..... “Senator Clinton has said she is ready to lead from Day 1” “But it’s important on Day 1 to get it right, whether you’re talking about war or you’re talking about economic proposals.” .... the coast-to-coast fight that lies ahead on Feb. 5.







1 comment:

People Power Granny said...

Check out my post at http://peoplepowergranny.blogspot.com and get my impression of the SC Democratic Primary. Vote in my poll and leave your comment.