Hillary's New Hampshire Firewall: She Plans On Losing Iowa


It is not a bad strategy. It is supposed to be a copycat of the Bill Clinton strategy in 1992. Bill Clinton skipped Iowa in 1992 out of what he claimed was respect for the native son Tom Harkin who was also running. The real reason was he was not going to do well there no matter how hard he tried.

He lost New Hampshire also, but claimed victory as "a comeback kid." So an absence in Iowa, and a loss in New Hampshire can also mean victory and momentum if you can spin it like Billie Clinton. Bill Clinton went on to give pretty good eight years.

But two losses in a row will not work for Hillary. An Iowa loss will be the beginning of the end of Hillary 2008. Why?

Bill Clinton had not been leading the national polls for all of 1991. Noone knew the Clinton name. Outside the circle of politial junkies, he was unheard of. His 1988 speech - the same one Obama gave in 2004 - had been a disaster. It was such a disaster, Hillary started introducing him as her "former husband."

Bill Clinton decided very early on to skip Iowa. Whereas Hillary has done the very best she can. She would have run even if Vilsack had not dropped out. Recently she held a job fair in DC to recruit hundreds of new, young staffers to send to Iowa. That was pushing the panic button.

For Bill Clinton an absence in Iowa, and a loss in New Hampshire was still an upswing. For Hillary, a loss in Iowa will be reverse momentum. Her national lead in the polls will disappear overnight. Her loss will be front page news in every newspaper in America. She will be the poster child of electoral loss. Overnight.

If she also loses New Hampshire, that will be the end of Hillary 2008.

If she loses Iowa, she will definitely lose South Carolina. If she loses New Hampshire, that will cost her Nevada.

My man Barack just might pull a double whammy. I am all for it. Go for it, dude.

Tsunami Tuesday

Even if Barack wins all four, Hillary will still be there for the fight on February 5. It is called burning fat, er, money.

Hillary Supports Bush

On Iraq. On Iran. On space flight. No wonder Bush also supports Hillary.

The idea of wanting to send humans to Mars is plain stupid. Think about it. There are other, better ways to imitate JFK. Like universal broadband. Globally universal, I mean. Unmanned vehicles are much better for deep space exploration. Humans will have serious emotional challenges, not to say physiological.

Not Christian

I am not Christian, and I forgive you for being one.

That as a response to religious harassment.

In The News

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The Associated Press A series of three near-simultaneous explosions shook north India on Friday afternoon, with blasts going off in Lucknow, Varanasi and Faizabad
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Times of India, India Banned Harkat-ul-Jehadi Islamia (HuJI) is believed to be behind the serial blasts that rocked the Uttar Pradesh ... a revenge by the banned outfit for the assault on its members including the recent incident when lawyers manhandled three Jaish-e-Mohammed militants arrested in Lucknow last week. .... Jaish could have sought the help of HuJI as both the outfits followed the Deoband sect of Islam. ... HuJI, which is being mainly run from Bangaldesh, has managed to establish cells in the Uttar Pradesh and that the outfit was responsible for previous major terror attacks. .... All three court premises in Lucknow, Faizabad and Varanasi, targeted on Friday by the militants, had seen an incident of manhandling of militants or activists of anti-Ram temple in Ayodhya by lawyers. .... Last week three JeM militants were roughed up by lawyers and the bar association refused to take up their cases. ..... Faizabad court premises was witness to an altercation between activists of a Babri Masjid organisation and lawyers. The local bar association had banned its advocates from taking up their case. .... The court premises in Varanasi was witness last year to beating of a Waliullah Khan, the main accused in the Sankat Mochan temple explosions. ... an outfit by the name of Al-Hind Mujahideen had claimed responsibility about the attacks and sent emails to some media houses.
Child sex tourism prevalent in India: Renuka Chowdhury in the name of pilgrim, heritage and coastal tourism, sexual exploitation of children is quite widespread. .... a lot of reports of human trafficking have come in from Maharastra, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Orissa. ..... children without family ties and vulnerable to abuse and exploitation.
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Lucknow on alert, police leaves cancelled
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Eight killed, 35 injured in UP serial blasts
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The Real Rudy New York Times moments when an inner light turns on and he turns downright idealistic .... the single most important reason for American greatness, namely, the renewal, reformation and reawakening that’s provided by the continuous flow of immigrants ...... continued the fear-mongering and discrimination of the nativist movements of the 1920s and the Know-Nothing movement of the 19th century ..... Lincoln for having the courage to take on the anti-immigrant forces. ...... “The reality is, people will always get in.” .... ‘Executive Order 124.’ ” This order protected undocumented immigrants from being reported when they used city services. ....... They must feel safe sending their children to school. They should feel safe reporting crime to the police. “Similarly, illegal and undocumented immigrants should be able to seek medical help without the threat of being reported. When these people are sick, they are just as sick and just as contagious as citizens.” ....... separate the criminal illegals from the hard-working ones. ...... “If you come here and you work hard and you happen to be in an undocumented status, you’re one of the people who we want in this city.” .... This is why Giuliani won 43 percent of the Hispanic vote in the mayoral race of 1997. This is why his candidacy once had the potential to renovate the G.O.P. ...... competing to drive away Hispanic votes and make the party unelectable in New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Florida and the nation at large. ...... Giuliani could have opened the party to the armies of dynamism — the sort of hard-working strivers who live in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx .... Someday Rudy Giuliani will look back on this moment and wonder why he didn’t run as himself.
Careers Give India’s Women New Independence Not long ago, an Indian woman, even a working Indian woman, would almost always have moved from her parents’ house to her husband’s. ...... college-educated professionals exploring jobs that simply did not exist a generation ago. ...... Bangalore, also known as Bengaluru, the capital of India’s technology and back-office business, is the epicenter of these changes. ...... with more than half of its 4.3 million residents under the age of 30 ...... Coffee bars are packed in the evenings. ...... On the refrigerator, she had pasted a snarky yellow note to herself: “Lose Weight, You Fat Pig.” .... Both women were trying to stave off their mothers’ intervention in the marriage department ........ the overseas Indians for whom her mother has an affinity. ..... young people, men and women both, still cling to ideas of virginity before marriage, and fairly large numbers say they prefer to marry within their own caste and community ......... freedom has brought new choices, new problems and ... new guilt. ........ finding a match will be difficult for a woman like her, a student of philosophy, who thinks for herself, lives apart from her parents and likes classic rock. ..... A bigger fear, she confesses, is not being married at all. ........ The mean age of marriage inched to 18.3 in 2001 from 17.7 years in 1991 ...... and as late as 22.6 years for the college-educated. ........ jobs that would rarely be filled by women, whether gas station attendants or cafe baristas, magazine editors or software programmers. ...... Every now and then, a high-profile crime against a woman prompts new hand-wringing and outcry over women working at night. But the young working woman living on her own is now firmly part of the urban mainstream. ...... when accommodations were limited to a room in the home of a nosy landlord who would cluck her teeth if a boyfriend spent the night ...... to be able to interact in public space and be in the same world as men ....... recalls being told that women were not welcome in executive positions because they inevitably married and quit ...... Instead, she would work and rent a place here. “People will talk,” was her parents’ first reaction. ....... Then they threw what she called “emotional tantrums.” Then they asked her to meet prospective husbands. ...... empty liquor bottles lined up smartly on a ledge, which made her mother gasp on her first visit. Ms. Cariappa said she assured her they had not all been consumed in one go. ........ One of her roommates carries a long dog chain, which she once had to use to repel a man.
The Journey Home Making a New Life in the Old Country She was 41, she hadn’t had a serious relationship in years and she had no desire to be what she calls the spinster at the table. ..... the business part was hardly creative, and a lot of being an agent is being mother, shrink, confessor; she’d be on the phone for hours, going through their divorces. ...... She has a good-looking boyfriend who makes his own olive oil and lies with her under the cherry trees. Cousins and great-aunts and -uncles, who did not know of her existence for most of their lives, treat her as if she’s always been a cherished member of the family; touching her, patting her hair. ...... Elderly widows wear black and the agricultural tradition is strong. ...... the area’s ancient culture .... on Good Friday, villagers carry a statue of Christ up the hill on their knees .... her grandfather, who returned every year to Calitri with clothing and money for the family that remained. ...... She was never, however, able to create a family of her own. She was romantically involved for several years with a photographer — “not a healthy relationship” ....... Los Angeles can be a tough place for a woman in her 40s. .... she had not had a serious boyfriend for five years. ..... It’s the first time any of the Paolantonios who have emigrated to America have returned to Calitri since World War II. Things start going crazy. Vito closes the shop and takes her from cousin to excited cousin. ...... “Everybody I meet immediately offers me coffee — I’m thinking I’m gonna die of coffee poisoning,” Ms. Paolantonio says. “Nobody speaks English. I speak very little Italian. Then I enter this smoke-filled room, I get to Zio Franco, my cousin, a very distinguished man with a mustache. He says, very slowly, in English, ‘Your grandfather was a very great man.’ I just collapsed emotionally. After lunch, I go for a nap and I totally cried myself to sleep because I am so overwhelmed.” ......... a tragic story .. but it is finally knowledge. ..... her boyfriend, Giuseppe Zarrilli. He is 35, 13 years younger than she, and works the family farm ....... “You feel like you are completely supported without a word; that his manliness is holding me up. I say to my friends, this guy is the real deal, not like a guy from Milan, a guy with cologne. This is a chop-your-own-wood kind of guy.” ........ a feeling of love, like the unconditional love of a parent or a grandparent ..... me trying to find this woman who was completely forgotten, locked inside my father’s heart ...... “I think sometimes they see things in me I don’t maybe see myself,” she says. “This older woman who is trying to be independent, but is a little lonely and is involved with a man and maybe it will work out and maybe it won’t. But whatever it is, they support me.” ...... “In Los Angeles, everything you do, you do alone and in your car, ” Ms. Paolantonio says. “Here I don’t leave the house without somebody saying, ‘Where are you going?’ I went outside the other day, a neighbor, this ancient woman dressed completely in black, comes out. She usually takes half an hour to kiss me a thousand times. I don’t understand a word she’s saying. She’s cooing at me, like a little dove, cooing.” ...... She’s written a memoir of her Calitri journey that she hopes to publish
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Dems Have Four-Letter Focus: IOWA
The Associated Press The campaign's first voting state has become so vital that all the Democrats are focused on it. ....... Iowa, which she has called her "toughest state." A loss there could make her look vulnerable and create a competitive race for the 2,104 delegates ...... the state's 1,784 precinct caucuses. The campaign is building a "buddy system" to match experienced caucus participants with the novices, and is offering transportation and child care. ....... The Obama campaign has a similar strategy with young voters, connecting them with veteran caucus goers. ....... bringing out the reliable caucus goers, particularly in rural areas. He's the only Democratic candidate to have visited all 99 Iowa counties ...... Bill Richardson and Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd are all banking on a surprise showing in Iowa. ....... Dodd has temporarily moved his family to Iowa to demonstrate his commitment to the state ...... Her strategy here is to build a New Hampshire firewall that would withstand an unpredictable outcome in Iowa. ..... Clinton has traveled to each of New Hampshire's 10 counties and has secured the backing of most of the Democratic establishment. The campaign has made more than 250,000 phone calls to voters. ...... His campaign stages house-to-house canvassing and phone banks every night and weekend, with 800 people knocking on doors one weekend in November. "When people begin to decide, we're going to be at their doors," said Obama campaign manager David Plouffe. ...... The Clinton and Obama campaigns have been working with experienced Iowa caucus organizers, developing a precinct-by-precinct system similar to Iowa's. ..... 60,000-member Culinary Union, which represents most employees on the Las Vegas strip. ...... blacks make up about 50 percent of Democratic primary voters in the state. ..... Obama has been advertising on three dozen black radio stations across the state — the most recent spot features him talking about growing up without his father. ..... The candidates have not been holding campaign events in Florid, but still have been aggressively raising money there. ....... Clinton is expected to cruise in her home state of New York and neighboring New Jersey. Besides the large delegate states, Obama's campaign is focusing on caucus states like Colorado and Minnesota where local organizations are necessary for victory.
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The Early Word: Second Is the New First Place? New York Times This is why Barack Obama recently asked a Dodd supporter in Iowa if he could please be her second choice. “Senator Obama was extremely gracious,” Democratic activist Karen Thalacker told the Chicago Sun-Times. “I told him, ‘Absolutely.’ ” ....... one Democrat could emerge from the pack to be the “un-Hillary” ..... how they balance rich local delicacies with proper nutrition. ..... John Kerry (dismissed as effete when he ordered a Philly cheese steak with Swiss in 2004) or Gerald R. Ford (on a 1976 swing through Texas, he bit into a tamale with the corn husk still on). ...... “There are few things more personal than eating,” he said, “and if you reject someone’s food, you kind of reject them.” ..... “Whenever you talk about it, you relive it. It doesn’t matter whether it was a day ago, a month ago or, in my case now, 34 years ago.” ...... the psychological mechanism known as inoculation ...... Obama, however, wants to delay plans for building the new Constellation spacecraft for five years and give those funds to education initiatives. ....... he’s always “viewed Iowa as being a place where they pick corn and New Hampshire being a place where we pick presidents
Iowa a 'four-letter word,' Republican race still 'fluid' Baltimore Sun
What's new: Joking about corn is no joke to Iowans; health care as ... USA Today Romney told reporters. 'As you know, I've spent more time in Iowa than anyone else running for president and probably more time in Iowa than any other state. ...... the Democratic push for universal health care has achieved such critical mass that Republican White House candidates are touting their own reform plans, which rely more on free-market dynamics ...... Edwards 2.0, an edgy populist mounting an insurgent campaign against Clinton ..... By the end of the day Jan. 3, Edwards either will have won Iowa and vaulted into serious contention to win the nomination, or he will disappear. ..... "Running for president is like entering a competitive eating contest and a beauty pageant all at once. Candidates are expected to eat local specialties often and with gusto, yet still look attractive and fit. ....... when it comes to President Bush's ambitious initiative to send humans back to the moon and on to Mars, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) is all but alone in staking out a formal position -- and it's one that lends support to key aspects of the president's effort." ...... together with a pledge to join her on the campaign trail.
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Clinton Hits Rough Patch
Wall Street Journal Clinton views her campaign as a template for her possible presidency ....... four more Democratic debates in December .... a loss, or even a close call, makes her vulnerable in the states that follow. ...... her success this year in methodically building her lead over rival Democrats with tireless stumping and discipline. She gained ground by taking rough edges off her imperious image, and promoting her experience and competence ......... Republicans, who report their first uptick in donations to party headquarters in many months, thanks to a recent stream of "stop-Hillary" fund-raising emails. ...... the two most-contentious debates in the long series ..... must show she can fight her own battles, too shrill an attack could erode Sen. Clinton's hard-won gains at softening her image. ...... she has never found it easy to give simple answers to questions ..... I've always made an argument in paragraphs. I need to learn to speak in sound bites. ..... her lack of details on plans for Social Security, global warming and other problems awaiting the next president reflect a wariness of taking stands -- on taxes, for instance -- that could give Republicans ammunition in 2008. ....... She followed the model that got her elected twice in New York, trying to meet as many people as possible, even in Republican-leaning areas, to dispel many voters' ice-queen image of her. ....... Chief strategist and pollster Mark Penn ...... "She was dead set against apologizing. Dead set against it" ...... a discipline rivaling that of George W. Bush's campaigns ...... 'But they've got to like you' ..... Clinton was routinely scheduled for two hours at each stop -- one hour for her speech and voters' questions, another to chat, sign autographs and smile for photographs as long as any voter remained. ....... a new and final phase: the time for sustained attacks on the front-runner. ...... Republicans will pound Democrats on the immigration issue in the general election because the Republican party's traditional strong suit -- the national-security card -- has been neutralized by President Bush's handling of the Iraq war. ......... the unprecedented number of televised debates proved to be a huge help, even rival campaigns acknowledge, as she consistently got high marks. While few voters watch the debates, many hear the reviews for days afterward.
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I'm Not There: Deconstructing Dylan TIME visionary artist struggles successfully to realize his particular vision, gets famous, gets laid, gets in trouble with the whole celebrity thing, tries to escape the demands of his exigent fans (wow, do they hate it when he turns from the acoustic to the electric guitar at the movie's version of the Newport Jazz Festival shocker), ends up sort of beloved, sort of intact, but sort of unfulfilled, too. ........ we don't really care very much about his need to find his own bliss. ...... the messiness of this life and, as its title implies, its lack of a thumping conclusion
Australia's Next Prime Minister? Rudd, the top student of his high school ..... in 2003, he visited a strip club in Manhattan with New York Post editor Col Allan ..... YouTube footage showing Rudd tasting his own earwax during a parliamentary debate in 2001 (he claims he was scratching his chin!) ...... Australia's $1 trillion economy ...... Iraq (a phased pull out of Australia's 1,400 troops) ..... climate change (ratifying the Kyoto Protocol), education (more laptops in high schools) and communications (faster Internet access)
How India Views Pakistan's Turmoil New Delhi's relations with Islamabad have lately been better than ever. ...... "The army is the only political party worth its name in Pakistan" ..... President Bush reiterated Tuesday that he has found Musharraf "to be a man of his word" — nonetheless insists that elections be held under the rule of law and not under emergency rule. ..... Musharraf may be trying to bring Nawaz Sharif over to his side ...... keeping channels of communication open to as many of the main players as possible.


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