50 Days For Iowa

50 Days For Iowa

You hit a point after which you basically camp out in Iowa. The previous cycle for John Kerry it was the beginning of December. And that was a good decision. But this time the caucuses are on January 3. November 10 or 15, perhaps 15 is a good point for this cycle, I would think.

You camp out in Iowa. Then you go to Nevada, and camp out there. And then New Hampshire. You camp out. And then South Carolina.

After South Carolina, you go into all the big media markets. New York and LA and a few others.

Fluid Race

I feel the race to be fluid. A lot of ground could shift. Just look at the numbers in Iowa.

Harlem Rally

Obama organized a rally in New York City. Hillary organized a rally in Harlem. There was an anti war rally in downtown Manhattan at the same time as the Hillary rally.

The Edwards Energy

He has come back swinging. He has come with fighting words recently.

Tuesday Debate In Philly

It might end up everyone versus Hillary. Hillary as usual will try to make it her versus Bush. Her Iran vote will be a major issue. Hillary's strategy will be to not engage, but ignore the Dems. She will keep wanting to fire at Bush.

I believe this will end up the most dramatic Democratic debate this year.

I hope Obama uses it to draw distinctions on all the big issues.

Being Fair To Hillary

I have always felt if she is the nominee, she will be president. I have never felt she will drag the rest of the Dems down if she is the nominee. It is just that to me the policy positions between Obama and her are glaring and I am rooting for Obama. I like it that Obama 2008 is not a negative campaign. But differences have to be made clear for the voters.

There are women who like it that Hillary is a viable candidate. There are ethnic minorities who like it that Obama is a viable candidate. I don't begrudge the women. If there are women who will vote for Hillary because she is a woman, all the glory to them. I am rooting for Obama.

An Obama Victory In Iowa

That will change everything.

Ah, the good white people in Iowa.

Which Debate Watch Party

I might go to this one.
Democratic Primary Debate Halloween Eve

Join DFNYC and the Manhattan Young Dems as we gather to watch the Democratic Primary Debate on Halloween Eve.

When: 6:00PM, Tuesday, October 30

Where: Dewey's Flatiron, 210 5th Avenue (btwn. 25th & 26th), Upstairs Room

Costumes optional.

No costumes for me. If you want to get scared, just think of the impending war on Iran.

Barack Obama picked up where Howard Dean left.

The other day I met Lewis Cohen at an event with the Washington Governor. It just felt different. I feel like I am a different, healthier, more relaxed person after having written my online autobiography, very much work in progress. I came into the city carrying baggage from KY and IN. A refugee from KY/IN, as I liked to call myself. And I paid a social price for the intense two year work into Nepal done almost completely in a web 2.0 environment: atrophied social muscles.

I sent Cohen a teaser email after I got back home. KFC, LFC, Lewis f_____g Cohen. Important guy. Was nice to see you earlier.

I wonder where the DFNYC crowd is on 2008 right now. I know they are very anti-war. Like very. Like unforgivingly very. All the DFNYC honchos are on close, first name basis with Dean. One of my earliest emails to Heather was, I can't believe you have a photo with Dean. Then I got a photo with Dean.

I wonder what a freewheeling conversation with someone like Cohen would be like. No time pressure, who are you, no topic too taboo. Bring it on, ask. Let me ask. What do you do? Where do you live? How long have you been in the city? Have you traveled much?

Deaniacs bond like people who have fought together.

Final Dates

I still don't know when the states are voting.

In The News

Taking Aim at Clinton Washington Post Hillary Clinton should be prepared for a long night at Tuesday's Democratic debate. Having been the favorite target at the Republican debate in Orlando a week ago, the New York senator now faces up-close-and-personal criticism from her leading Democratic rivals in Philadelphia. ...... the Iowa caucuses are now just nine weeks away. ...... Clinton is deliberately concealing her views on important issues ...... "Down one path, we trade corporate Democrats for corporate Republicans; our cronies for their cronies; one political dynasty for another dynasty; and all we are left with is a Democratic version of the Republican corruption machine." ..... The challenge for Obama and Edwards -- as for the other Democrats chasing Clinton -- is how best to force her to engage. ..... is reluctant "to kneecap the frontrunner" ...... Edwards appears less concerned about perceived negativity, although he too has been respectful in his face-to-face encounters with Clinton. ....... Clinton remains in a highly competitive race in Iowa. But in their tone and language, Edwards and Obama appear to sense that time is now their enemy, that they must change the dynamic soon. That could make Tuesday's a debate worth watching.
Clinton, Obama in Statistical Tie in Iowa, Poll Finds (Update1)Bloomberg Clinton of New York received 28.9 percent support compared with 26.6 percent for Obama of Illinois. The gap is within the poll's 5.5 percent margin of error for Democrats. ...... Obama received 19.3 percent support in August.
In Iowa, 3-way race for Dems as Romney leads big Baltimore Sun
Romney Says Giuliani's Support Will Fade The Associated Press
Gap Threatens India's Clothing Boom TIME the garments were stitched by children in a Delhi sweatshop. ...... children between 10 and 13 worked in conditions "close to slavery" in the factory producing blouses bearing Gap labels. Gap, which has 200 of its 2,000 suppliers in India ......... for most Indians child labour is a well-known reality ...... between 75 and 90 million children continue to be part of the labour force in India. ....... grimy, dimly-lit sweatshops behind plush, high-end boutiques. ...... trained embroiderers and tailors are paid between $110 and $150 a month, whereas "children can be employed for less than half of this, sometimes for no money at all if their parents have sold them off." ........ growth is prioritized over social equity ...... In 2008, clothing and textile production in India for foreign brands is projected to be worth between $22 billion and $25 billion, as Western producers come in search of lower production costs that enable lower retail prices in the boutiques of the industrialized world.
Somalian prime minister resigns Los Angeles Times
Somalia: Prime Minister Quits; Violence Rocks Mogadishu AllAfrica.com
Red Sox Have the World at Their Feet
Washington Post
Obama Lashes Out at Clinton The Associated Press accusing her of dodging tough questions about Social Security. ....... Obama, campaigning at a senior center in Des Moines ..... Obama's campaign arranged for him to be introduced at the event by Tod Bowman, a teacher from Maquoketa, Iowa, who tried to pin down Clinton during a debate in Iowa earlier this month on whether the government should tax workers' earnings above the present cap of $97,500 to help pay for Social Security benefits. ...... Clinton sidestepped the question in public, telling Bowman privately afterward that she didn't want to put an additional tax burden on the middle class, but would consider a "gap," with no Social Security taxes on income from $97,500 to around $200,000. Anything above that could be taxed. Her answer was overheard by an Associated Press reporter. ..... you're not ready to lead if you can't tell us where you're going ...... hedge, and dodge, and spin, but at all costs, don't answer ....... As president, her first priority will be restoring fiscal responsibility and fair tax policies, and then will work in a bipartisan process to address Social Security's long term challenges. ..... she is against changing benefits, against raising the retirement age, against privatization, so what is she going to do? ........ "Did I miss something? Did you all have the Iowa caucus and I was back in North Carolina asleep?
Obama in Spotlight at Today's MySpace/MTV Forum Washington Post
The Early Word: Obama Strategies New York Times why the Illinois senator draws big crowds but not big polling numbers ....... a cerebral approach that leaves some voters wanting more. While Clinton is running “from the center” and former Edwards is running “from the left,” he said, Obama is “running from above.” ....... Obama’s campaign could certainly use reenergizing. ...... seems to have withered beneath the supernova that is the Clinton campaign. ........ the early date—in the middle of college winter break — will affect youth turnout rates. ....... the growing Latino population in the mostly racially homogeneous state. ...... Most Democratic candidates supported the failed Kennedy-McCain bill in Congress, which would have provided a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Yet they talk tough on border security. ........ John Edwards called for a two-year ban on advertisements for new prescription drugs. ...... the Mike Huckabee train is gaining steam ...... the likelihood that conservative evangelicals would break off from the future G.O.P. candidate and endorse the former Arkansas governor as a third party. ...... Ron Paul’s campaign has a new strategy: chase what few conservative voters live in heavily Democratic San Francisco. Winning the Republican primary in a Democratic district would give Mr. Paul the same amount of delegates at the party nominating convention as if he had won a Republican-dominated (and much more difficult to woo) district. ....... the growing clout of the Arab-American community, which not too long ago was avoided by presidential candidates: In 1988, Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis rejected the endorsement of a major Arab-American group. ........ in 2004, former President Ford said Mrs. Clinton is “tougher and stronger” than her husband, Bill Clinton. ....... Barack Obama participates in a presidential dialogue hosted by MySpace and MTV at Coe College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. He then travels to Charlottesville, Va., for a fund-raiser with Gov. Tim Kaine.
Jab at Clinton Hidden in ‘Wind’ New York Times protect the system from privatization and to end the Social Security tax exemption for the wealthy ........ “I don’t want to just put my finger out to the wind and see what the polls say – I want to bring the country together to solve a problem.”
Taking Aim at Clinton Washington Post
Harlem Homecoming for Clinton The Associated Press
She's not sold on Hillary Clinton - yet Newsday
Bill Clinton says he is thinking about SC following beach fire Myrtle Beach Sun News
Real ID That Spitzer Now Embraces Has Been Widely Criticized New York Times
Eliot Spitzer compares driver's license plan to MetroCards New York Daily News
Iowa Democrats Set Earlier Caucus Date Washington Post New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has said only that he would schedule that primary no later than Jan. 8. ...... a historically early White House competition that has defied precedent in terms of jockeying for position, campaign debates, large campaign expenditures, broadcast advertisements and hundreds of candidate appearances. ........ Florida set its primary for Jan. 29, and Michigan is planning a Jan. 15 primary. Those decisions forced South Carolina to move up its date as well.
India Activists Decry Gap Child Labor The Associated Press
European libraries face enormous problems in digitalizing International Herald Tribune
Merrill Lynch Set To Oust O'Neal Forbes
O'Neal Ouster Makes Mess of Maternal Merrill Lynch (Update3) Bloomberg the worst news in the firm's 93-year history. ...... a credit market shakeout that triggered a run on a British bank and caused Switzerland's largest financial institution to fire its CEO, was the biggest quarterly debacle in the history of the securities industry. ........ the board of 11, nine of whom were handpicked by O'Neal during his five years as CEO, to make it clear the 56- year-old grandson of a former slave is leaving, possibly as early as today ........ Merrill, a firm that over nine decades built a corporate culture that promoted from within and gently nudged its chiefs into distinguished retirement ...... Merrill has risen 52 percent in New York trading since O'Neal took over on Dec. 2, 2002, while the 12-member Amex Broker/Dealer Index has surged 159 percent and shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest securities firm, has tripled. ....... Merrill risked becoming `` ...... a snake pit with political infighting.. The world's largest banks and securities firms announced more than $30 billion of third-quarter losses from writedowns or bad debt. ....... ``He got rid of people with hundreds and hundreds of years of experience,'' said Winthrop Smith, who left as head of Merrill's international brokerage after O'Neal became president in 2001. ``When you get rid of people who have gone through problems in the past, you increase the probability that a mistake is going to happen again.'' ....... O'Neal put more of the firm's capital at risk by investing it directly in leveraged buyouts ........ His strategy transformed Merrill into a firm that looked less like the one Tully, now 75, bequeathed and more like Goldman Sachs. ...... Net income rose 47 percent last year to a record $7.5 billion, and O'Neal took home $48 million in compensation -- $20 million more than in 2003. ........ Mother Merrill, a term sometimes used to describe the firm as more forgiving and loyal than its Wall Street rivals, rankled O'Neal. He said a business should be driven more by performance than by tenure and relationships. ......... O'Neal was born in nearby Roanoke, Alabama, in October 1951. His education began at a one-room school with an outhouse ....... Next came a scholarship from GM to study at Harvard Business School. ...... whetted his appetite for investment banking and complex financial transactions. ........ It was exciting; it was innovative; there was a sense of urgency ....... At 35, older than most new investment bankers, he joined Merrill's high-yield-bond department. Within three years, he was running the group ........ O'Neal was an investment banker turned CFO who had never served among Merrill's 15,000 brokers. ...... Almost immediately, O'Neal quit advertising Merrill's Internet trading service. He accelerated an effort to have Merrill's army of brokers focus on getting more millionaires as clients. ........ O'Neal said he spent his first six weeks as president meeting with executives throughout the firm and thinking about new jobs for some of them, just as he had when moving into previous roles. ....... After the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, O'Neal accelerated his timetable for change. He eliminated 14,800 jobs and closed 266 offices around the world, dismantling the international empire that Komansky built during the previous five years. ........ ``The worst thing you can do is take talented people and put them up against a problem or market opportunity that has changed dramatically and tell them to keep doing it in the same way,'' O'Neal said in 2002. ``You wind up frustrating and demoralizing people.'' ........ Merrill, which paid a $100 million fine ....... Komansky, receiving the treatment reserved for retiring Merrill chiefs, was given an office on Manhattan's Fifth Avenue.
Another World Cup for Germany? Soccer studies the female factor International Herald Tribune Dell gets lift from upbeat Goldman Sachs report MarketWatch
Michael Dell Hints at Bigger Acquisitions
PC World the pace of consolidation will increase ...... particularly as the growth is skewed towards emerging countries ..... In the last two years Dell has acquired five companies, two related to the consumer business, one related to software and two related to services. .......... 70 percent of IT spending at Japanese companies over the next year will be related to maintenance of old systems and management and only 30 percent on new hardware.
Laura Bush Defines Her Policy Role
Voice of America
First lady stakes out own issues Houston Chronicle
Laura Bush won't vote for Hillary Clinton New York Daily News