The 12 Year Itch
The bad times came to an end for the Dems with the 2006 victory party.
Now you can feel the wind behind your back. You could send forth a Kucinich-Gravel ticket and they will still win. The White House can be had. The margin in the House could go wider. The Dems will take over the Senate with a wider margin. The question is could it be a 60-40 margin?
You have Barack and Hillary to thank for the current roll. They are both running positive campaigns robust with ideas. I don't expect that to change.
This could mean 12 uninterrupted years of Dems in the White House as well as both chambers of Congress.
How could this end?
Well, the Dems are going to have to end the war, and while getting the goal of universal health care, the budget must be balanced. At some point down the line, the Dems are going to start acting fiscally irresponsible. That is when you will know they have tired of power and want to be booted out.
Or something more dramatic could happen, and they could lose one of the chambers in Congress somewhere along the line.
Or the knock off could start at the very highest level. After 12 years, the Dems could lose the White House. And that could bring forth a new era of Dems in the wilderness.
This could be the profile of someone who would take over the White House on behalf of the Republicans in 2020.
- She is a woman.
- She has internalized all the social progressive issues and made them her own. God, guns, gays.
- She is extremely comfortable with religious diversity and is herself very actively into her faith, likely Christianity.
- She possibly has a multi-racial extended family. Multi as in more than two.
- She has advanced degrees in technology and economics, she likely has a tech background. Her primary selling point is the next wave of economic growth in America and the world. Her primary appeal is to the private sector that takes care of 95% of the people out there. She is the mature information age president. She has thorough instincts for the rhythms of the global economy. The world by 2020 will largely be one of democracies and she is in tune with that.
- She is currently not even in politics right now.
- She has a big city background. She considers herself a global citizen. She has friends on all continents.
Some Dem not in Washington could shoot for the White House and take over and start a new progressive era in 2020. But she will have to come at it like she had been in the opposition all along. She will have to take the establishment in her own party at that point in time. It can not feel like a continuation. There has to be this feeling of departure.
In The News
Hospitals Full of Victims and Solidarity With Bhutto New York Times
At least 20 die of diarrhoea in west Nepal
Turkey's row with US over Iraq may hit lira hard
Obama Calls for Ouster of Official After Remark New York Times
Gloves off as time runs out for Obama Scotland on Sunday HE CAN draw a crowd of 20,000 people to hear him speak and he's built the largest fund-raising machine in American political history. ........... Obama has been criticised for failing to throw enough punches on the campaign trail, prompting whispers in Washington that he is not suited to the rough and tumble of presidential politics. "Everyone knows Hillary will do whatever it takes to win. Can you say that about Obama? There's a question mark about him," said a Democratic aide to a rival campaign. "How badly does he want it?" ........... more traditional, sharp-elbowed tactics. ....... Beefing up his campaign staff, Obama has hired John del Cecato, a veteran Democratic strategist, to run a rapid- response unit defending him from attacks from Clinton's campaign. The move ends Obama's strategy of rising above the petty squabbling and is a declaration of intent. ............ Obama warned that Clinton's foreign policy endangered the US. "Many Republicans and even a few Democrats refuse to admit the mistake they made five years ago. And now we're seeing history repeat itself as the drumbeat builds for a war with Iran" ....... Even a single state defeat, the Obama campaign believes, could fatally wound Clinton. Consequently Obama is betting his entire campaign on victory in January's Iowa caucuses.
Poll: Barack Obama VS. the Top Republicans Associated Content survey shows Obama leading former New York City Mayor Rudy 46 to 41% and former Senator Fred Thompson 47 to 41% ....... a big difference from the start of the campaign, back at the end of 2006 when had a double digit lead over Obama. Obama kept inching up until he passed for the first time in July of this year, but by just 1%. That is until about the middle of September until early in October when the margin started to widen.
Clinton: Attention from men is 'kind of flattering'
Clinton defends fundraising among immigrants