February To September: Little Change

Silicon City

February To September: Little Change

Hillary was at 48% in February, she is 47% in September. Barack was 23% in February, he is 25% in September nationally.

Moral of the story is the average American voter, the people who actually make the decision, have not been paying attention. For the political junkies, the presidential race started earlier than usual this year. But for the voters that has not been the case.

Barack: Nowhere To Go But Up

When the anti-lobbying people who have rallied behind Edwards realize on January 21 that their candidate is basically out of the race, who do you think is going to get their current 10 plus percent? Barack Obama. When the Hispanics finally realize Bill Richardson is actually Hispanic and not Anglo, but before they have had a chance to express their ethnic pride, they realize Richardson has lost and dropped out, that he does not stand a chance, who do you think will cash that ethnic pride? Barack Obama. The Biden, Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel people are also going to go with Obama.


If Hillary emerges second or third in Iowa, that is going to kill her momentum and possibly her candidacy although she will have enough money to go all the way to February 5. Front runners can't afford to lose Iowa. If Obama is second in Iowa, that will be a better than expected show, and that will give him a lot of momentum.

Ideas, Ideas, Ideas

Barack is the only one doing it. All the others have been rehashing old ideas that sound new because they are different from W's ideas.

South Carolina

South Carolina is going to be the big, big surprise of the first four states. Barack is going to carry that state by a wide margin. The black people want to rally behind Barack with a tribal fervor and song and dance but they want to do it so late in the process they don't get too noticed, or so they hope.

Scenario 1

Barack wins Iowa. He wins Nevada. He wins New Hampshire. He wins South Carolina. At that point Hillary all but drops out. She giver her concession speech midnight of February 5 that she wrote herself a week earlier. It concludes by saying, Go get 'em tiger.

Scenario 2

Barack is second in Iowa, Edwards wins Iowa. Hillary is third.

Barack wins Nevada, Hillary is second. Richardson is third.

Hillary wins New Hampshire, Barack is second, Edwards is third.

Barack wins South Carolina by a wide margin. Hillary is second. Edwards is a distant third, and all else have dropped out.

Barack wins big on February 5. He carries California, he carries New York. The game is over.

Scenario 3

Hillary wins Iowa, Barack is second. Barack wins Nevada, Hillary is second. Hillary wins New Hampshire, Barack is second. Barack wins South Carolina, Hillary is second.

On February 5, Barack wins big, Hillary wins big. At that point Barack has 55% of the delegates, Hillary has 45%.

That leads to much February action and a March madness. Tsunami Tuesday prepares ground, Super Tuesday decides.

Barack has much more money than Hillary after February 5 because all of Barack's million strong contributors who gave $100 or less make repeat contributions.

He wins.

In Solidarity With The Burmese People

In The News

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Clinton Camp Expects Obama to Best Them by Over $10 Million
ABC News Blaming a vacationing donor base during the summer months of July and August, and suggesting previous donors have "maxed out" their contributions to the New York senator in the first two fundraising quarters, the Clinton campaign predicted Obama's campaign will beat them by over $10 million. ........ over 472,000 individual donations from over 333,000 different people ..... "He has demonstrated a capacity to raise money from donors who aren't traditional Democratic party donors. That is extraordinary," Dunn said. "He appeals to younger voters who are much more comfortable giving money online." ..... younger voters, who are traditionally unreliable when it comes to turning out at the polls.. ...... On Monday, Obama took his fundraising pitch to Broadway for a theatre fundraiser that cost $250 to $2,300 per ticket. ..... hopes to have a total of 500,000 donations from 350,000 donors at the quarter's end. ...... Thompson's fundraising push shows he lacks a national financial structure.
Win a Debate Date With a Clinton Washington Post
What's new: Bush said to be quietly advising Clinton on Iraq ...
USA Today "President Bush is quietly providing back-channel advice to (Sen.) Hillary Rodham Clinton ........ Bush told Sammon he thinks Clinton will win the Democratic nomination ...... By telling us in the most explicit terms yet that she will not withdraw from Iraq in 2009, she must believe she has the nomination wrapped up. ..... 'Iowa always tends to punish the front-runner right down at the end of the campaign. ..... "Early this summer, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign for president learned that the men's magazine GQ was working on a story the campaign was sure to hate: an account of infighting in Hillaryland. So Clinton's aides pulled a page from the book of Hollywood publicists and offered GQ a stark choice: Kill the piece, or lose access to planned celebrity coverboy Bill Clinton. Despite internal protests, GQ editor Jim Nelson met the Clinton campaign's demands, which had been delivered by Bill Clinton's spokesman, Jay Carson, several sources familiar with the conversations said." ..... "Top Republicans are privately bracing for the possibility that they could lose additional House seats in next year's elections as a result of untimely retirements, ongoing scandals and unexpectedly gloomy fundraising forecasts
Bayh backs Clinton for leadership traits Indianapolis Star
Nepal parties mull compromise NDTV.com Nepal's eight main parties are planning to bring in a resolution in the interim Parliament expressing their ''joint commitment'' to make Nepal a Republican country ...... Prachanda on Monday indicated that some ''new consensus'' was possible on declaring Nepal Republic state and proportionate voting system
For GOP, Michigan Looms Large CBS News

Monks defy warnings to protest in Myanmar
International Herald Tribune
China Calls for Stability in Myanmar as Monks Protest (Update4) Bloomberg
Monk demonstrations continue Xinhua

Beijing gets ready to welcome Sonia, congratulates Rahul Times of India
India's crown prince Rahul Gandhi takes top party job AFP
Bush Pushes UN to Live Up to Charter Commitments
FOX News
Musharraf will remain general if not elected
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Google and Microsoft after Facebook for its bigger aspirations
National Post active users at roughly 42 million, growth of 3% per week and hundreds of thousands of applications in development ..... Microsoft is in talks to buy a minority stake in the popular Web site. Google also is rumoured to be interested. ..... the more “complex mission” Facebook is pushing. ..... a technology company, not a media company – much like Google ..... Facebook is also trying to enable more efficient sharing of information. And if it executes properly, it could be worth billions or more in the next five years ...... it took a few years for people to realize that Google has very broad ambitions to organize the world’s information – all of it, not just the stuff that was already present on the Internet today ....... While Google funds, tags, ranks and present information, Facebook takes that data and other more personal info, and helps people share it. ...... “We believe where one leaves off, the other begins” ..... “real value is created when Facebook can match advertiser and consumer intent.”
Go Public Now, Facebook Motley Fool Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) appears to be ready to pay as much as $500 million for a 5% stake in hip-and-happening Facebook. .... Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG) taking a 5% stake in AOL two years ago ...... Like Google to AOL, Microsoft is Facebook's ad-serving partner. .... values Facebook at a lofty $10 billion. ..... the $1 billion price tag Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) was supposedly offering to buy all of Facebook last year. ..... The company is growing quickly. Opening up its site to third-party developers is sheer, visionary genius. ..... Facebook may be holding out for a valuation closer to $15 billion ..... at $15 billion, it would command nearly half the market cap of Yahoo! or the equivalent of 13 CNET Networks ....... should be one of the hottest IPOs of 2008. ..... Facebook is becoming the Internet's most talked-about private company. ..... Facebook was right not to settle for being Yahoo!'s billion-dollar wingman. ..... Google has also approached Facebook about taking a minority stake in the company. ..... monetization of social networking .... Google is paying at least $300 million a year to News Corp. to field the search queries on MySpace. ...... Take the money. Then turn around, go public, and take the money again.
Is Eklavya a good choice for the Oscars? Rediff
"The War" Re-Examines WWII
CBS News "The problem with the second World War, for years we mediated it, made it the good war and bloodless war and mediated it by having celebrity generals and strategy and tactics everything and weapons," Burns said. "We want to find out what happened. These people are dying at a rate of 1,000 a day. If we don't record what they experienced, what war is like, which is just as horrible as it is now, more." ........ "Think about it, you're 18, 19 years old, you go to war. The thing about war is you're scared, you're bored, you're hot, you're cold, you see bad things, you do bad things, you lose good friends. How can you come back and explain it?" he said. "The guys who saw the worst stuff were quiet and helped deal with it by making funny stories. We had a guy in the Battle of the Bulge, we took over a French farmhouse, 'They had a wine cellar, we all got drunk.' " Later, the man's son said he had never heard that story before, Burns said.

A restless Sarkozy vows to lead Europe into a new era Garowe Online
In TV blitz, Clinton goes on Iraq offensive
Florida Democrats Affirm an Early Primary
New York Times
Romney Wins Mackinac Straw Poll
New York Times
Merkel angers China over Tibet
Guardian Unlimited
Merkel defies China, meets Dalai Lama Bangkok Post
China's Criticism Heats Up Ahead of Merkel Meet With Dalai Lama Deutsche Welle
5 Cool Google Tools You Should Know About
InformationWeek how Google approaches product development, which is certainly unlike any other company. .... Google is incredibly retro in its research model; it's like the old Bell Labs, or IBM when it was in its glory days. You've got engineers, programmers, and PhDs of various specialties working on stuff, with little or no pressure to produce stuff that can be monetized. ....... Google gives no hints as to where its thousands of projects might ultimately take the company. ..... Web apps, followed by mobile (gPhone anyone?) are the next big areas after search. ..... this "throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks" model is a far better way to pick winners and losers than to make bets internally.
Wal-Mart maps out grand plan to go greener MSNBC

20000 join Burma's 'saffron revolution' The Sunday Times
Burma march 'largest in 20 years' BBC News
Challenge to Myanmar's military junta gains momentum International Herald Tribune
Monks' protest swells
Bangkok Post, Thailand
Security beefed up around Suu Kyi's residence
Hindu, India
Emboldened Myanmar monks challenge junta rule
Monks' challenge gathers strength against Burma's military government
Melbourne Herald Sun, Australia
Monks lead huge protest in Yangon
Aljazeera.net, Qatar
Burma monks call on public to join dissent
The Age, Australia
Monks increase pressure on junta
Channel 4 News, UK
Veering towards breaking point
Malaysia Star, Malaysia
Nearly 5000 march against military rule in Myanmar
Inquirer.net, Philippines
Witnesses: 10000 monks stage Myanmar protests
Dissident reveals his hand in Burma protests
Telegraph.co.uk, United Kingdom A pro-democracy leader who tops the "wanted" list of Burma's military rulers has revealed to The Sunday Telegraph how his movement has helped orchestrate the escalating street protests against the country's dictatorship. ...... had been secretly liaising with the Buddhist monks ..... the two groups are working to form a joint challenge to the regime. ..... hopes that, this time, the country's generals might lose their nerve rather than respond with force. ...... such is the dire state of Burma's economy now that many of its 53 million people feel they have little left to lose. .... "Our cadres have for weeks been coaxing the Buddhist clergy to join the protest movement," said Mr Saw. ..... "People might be encouraged to shed their fears if the monks take to the streets. The senior clergy close to the regime were reluctant to take part, but the younger monks are showing a keen interest." ....... Democracy activists began the protests a month ago, but they petered out until they enlisted the monks last week. Because of the respect the monks enjoy in the religiously devout nation, the ruling generals are wary of suppressing them with the kind of brutality used against others. ....... She came out of her house and wept as they filed past. ...... You knock on a door late at night, and whisper, 'Let me in, brother'. ..... "The junta spends 40 per cent of its budget on its 450,000-strong army. Only a sliver of the budget goes to health care and education. ...... "There was a time when Burma was known as Asia's rice bowl, yet today nearly a third of Burmese are malnourished or physically underdeveloped." ..... "I was held in tiny seven-by-10ft cells, where I saw my fellow inmates beaten to death in front of me."

China Catholics throng to church BBC News
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Barack Obama caught between lines in race battle Times Online, UK
Obama Floats Social Security Tax Hike
ABC News "If we kept the payroll tax rate exactly the same but applied it to all earnings and not just the first $97,000," Obama wrote this week in an Iowa newspaper, "we could eliminate the entire Social Security shortfall." ....... "one possible option" .... a higher retirement age should be "on the table." .... Obama has distinguished himself as the presidential candidate most willing to touch the "third rail" of American politics. ...... the roughly five percent of Americans who earn more than $97,000 per year. ..... "It would end the contributory idea of Social Security, where you get back something for what you put in." ...... Obama's consideration of a tax hike is under fire from Republicans for its sheer size. ...... Income between $97,000 and $200,000 would continue to be exempt from Social Security taxes under the Edwards proposal. ..... Clinton opposes both ..... her focus would be on getting back to fiscal discipline in the non-Social Security portion of the budget ...... "When you cut off the contribution at $90,000, $95,000, that's a lot of money between $95,000 and the $46 million that Warren Buffet made last year. And he's honest enough to say, 'Look, tax me because I'm a patriotic American and I want to make sure our country stays strong and is fair.'"
Obama’s game plan lets Hillary do the fighting Times Online, UK stumbling over even the name of his wife. The effortless grace of that spellbinding 2004 convention speech seemed from another era. ...... I’d just been bored by a black politician on tax policy. ..... The days in which African-American politics were defined by Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, or, even worse, Louis Farrakhan, are over. ...... The conventional wisdom about Obama is that his campaign is flailing before the relentless bulldozer of the Clinton machine. ...... some time this spring, he stalled and she rallied. ...... His support hasn’t slumped much since then; it has simply trodden water at about 20%. ..... after some superb debate performances, is now about 39%. ..... in the key early races, the polling is much closer. ..... She has global name recognition and deep loyalty among the most partisan and loyal Democrats. ...... If fellow Democrat John Edwards drops out in the early stages, his 10% could go to Obama. If Obama seems a viable candidate in South Carolina, that primary’s substantial black vote could break at the last minute for the black man in the race. ....... In a polarised climate, where Rudy Giuliani is already lambasting Hillary and itching for a fight, Obama is sticking to a disciplined message of reconciliation, unity, responsibility. ...... He detects an enormous weariness among Americans about their internal divisions in a time of war, overlaid by the anger and divisions that have deepened and widened under the Bush presidency. He suspects that if he can get past Clinton’s aura of inevitability, Democrats will realise he has a much better chance of winning a real national majority in the general election than Clinton does. Clinton polarises the way Bush polarises. She can hope for a Karl Rove-style 51% majority in a deeply divided country. He’s aiming for 55%. ..... Clinton .. represents payback for the Democrats and liberals after the Bush era ..... Obama .. offering Americans something else: not payback, but a new page.
Candidates vie for MySpace generation Sunday Herald Her official website has links to MySpace, Facebook, and LinkedIn, as well as video and photograph collections on YouTube and Flickr. ...... the 1920s with radio and the 1940s and 50s with television .... aged 18-29. ... "the demographic that is virtually unreachable by other media. ..... By the mid-term elections of 2006, YouTube had joined the blogs as a key online battleground. It was widely credited with the downfall of at least one Republican Senator, George Allen, who lost a close race in Virginia after aiming a racist comment ........ Nixon was unguarded when his stubble was obvious when he was on TV debating against Kennedy ..... giving MySpace and MTV.com users the chance to interrogate the main presidential contenders by email, text or instant message
Obama: Expand Senior Volunteer Programs The Associated Press Obama said Friday he wants to increase opportunities for older Americans to contribute to society by creating new volunteer programs. ...... sought to reach across generations by including younger Iowans in his effort to increase senior volunteer opportunities. ...... More than 60 percent of the activists who showed up for Democratic precinct caucuses in both 2000 and 2004 were older than 50. ..... "If the greatest generation can teach today's generation anything, it's that a greater America is still possible," Obama said. ..... a statewide canvass involving hundreds of volunteers working out of 46 offices in virtually every corner of the state this weekend.
Obama focuses on seniors, ties to youth KGAN
Clinton tough, Giuliani energetic, Obama optimistic
Baltimore Sun, United States
Ushering in Obama In Atlanta
Washington Post, United States R&B singer Usher Raymond to launch his "Countdown for Change" tour in the South. ..... Obama gracing the cover of Vibe magazine this month and mentions in songs this summer by rappers Common and Talib Kweli. "My raps ignite the people like Obama," raps Common. ...... Some African Americans in the crowd wore all black in a show of solidarity with marchers in Jena ..... "That we don't have people getting 100 times bigger penalties for [the sale of] crack cocaine versus powdered cocaine." ..... The city is home to about 45 colleges and universities and a short drive from South Carolina, a key primary state.
The candidates: Bill Richardson and the Latino vote Economist Republicans are repelling Hispanic voters. That is good news for Democrats...... he lived in Mexico until he was a teenager ...... After 14 years in Congress, he was America's ambassador to the United Nations. He has run a large federal bureaucracy (as Bill Clinton's energy secretary), and a state (he is currently the governor of New Mexico). ....... Mrs Clinton's main qualification—eight years as the unofficial chief adviser to a president—is marred for some voters by the fact that she was married to him. ...... the Hispanic electorate will have nearly doubled between 2000 and 2008, from 7.5m to 14m ..... Hispanics are both the largest and the fastest-growing minority .....George Bush wooed them assiduously and won 40% of the Latino vote in 2004—twice the share his fellow Republican Bob Dole ..... the Democrats' 19 percentage point lead in 2004 swelled to 39 points in 2006. ..... Duncan Hunter, who boasts he will build not one but two fences along the Mexican border ..... Florida, a big swing state where 11% of those who voted in 2006 were Latino .... Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, which are all heavily Hispanic. ...... thanks to his name, many Latinos do not even realise he is one of them. ....... “If you build a 12-foot wall, people will get 13-foot ladders.” He is vying for third place in New Hampshire. ...... his most realistic shot may be at the vice-presidency. The Democratic nominee is likely to be a white female senator from the north-east. A male Latino governor from the south-west would balance the ticket nicely. One snag, though, is that Mrs Clinton is said not to be a huge fan. It is not clear why, but a joke Mr Richardson told in 2005 cannot have helped. .... “We've got a lot of good ones,” he said. “There's Governor [Tom] Vilsack of Iowa—he'd bring back the Midwest. There's [Senator] Joe Biden—he'd bring back the national-security voter. And there's Hillary Clinton—she'd bring back the White House furniture.
Obama unveils new tax plan DesMoinesRegister.com, IA