Explaining Early State And National Polls






Obama now leads in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina. Hillary has widened her national lead. How do you explain that?

In the early states Obama leads because the voters in the early states have already gone through their puppy love phase with the Clinton name that sends good vibes from the 1990s. Now they are looking more closely, learning more about the candidates, and in Obama they like what they see.

Nationally a lot of voters are barely starting to pay attention to the race. They are like, did you say the election is on? I did not know. This early? And they hear the Clinton name, and they are like, I like Clinton, sure. I will bet you quite a few of them think Bill Clinton is running again. He has already done his time in detention and how he is back.

This might be hard for the hard core to believe, but that is what is going on. Give them some time. When they learn more about Obama, they are going to fall for him just fine.

It is going to be a Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton ticket.

I expect Barack Obama to take the national lead perhaps in December, even late in December. Barack will have a Christmas gift to take home: a lead in the national polls. Until then it helps to not be in the lead. Then your volunteers and workers and staff are working harder, are more on the edge, are more focused. To go from being number two to number one is also momentum. And momentum is the name of the game.

Barack will sweep. He will win Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina. And he will also sweep all the way to February 5. Midnight of February 5, the Democratic primary will be over.

I hope we wake up on February 6 to the news of a Barack-Hillary ticket.

And in the general election that ticket will sweep the country like Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Good times are here.

In The News

Obama whips up crowd before debate Chicago Sun-Times Obama whipped up a crowd of several hundred this afternoon at a rally in a parking lot outside the field that's hosting Tuesday night's forum. The Illinois senator said he has ''home field advantage.''

Labor Sets the Stage for a Democratic Forum
New York Times 12,000 members .... bills in Congress that would make it easier to unionize and give all firefighters and police officers the right to bargain collectively. ...... the second forum the Democrats will attend within a week; a third sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign will be held on Thursday ..... Dick Gephardt had the endorsements of 23 unions during the 2004 presidential primary season ...... A.F.L.-C.I.O., a federation of 55 unions representing nearly 10 million workers ..... 205,000 union members did volunteer work in the 2006 campaign and that the federation’s political program contacted more than 13 million members of unions and union households ..... Labor leaders said the Republican presidential candidates were invited to take part in the Chicago debate, but none of them filled out a labor questionnaire sent them — a precondition for participating in the debate.
Presidential candidates to debate in Chicago ABC7Chicago.com
Giuliani Questioned About Catholicism Forbes "My religious affiliation, my religious practices and the degree to which I am a good or not so good Catholic, I prefer to leave to the priests," Giuliani said. ..... Giuliani has been married three times, with one annulment and one divorce. ..... Giuliani said he's the only Republican who can compete throughout the country without writing off traditionally Democratic states. .... "I can make this campaign a nationwide campaign," Giuliani said. "We have only run in certain states." ..... "I suspect it will be a Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama ticket," he said. "Their views are pretty much the same."
Giuliani's daughter backs Obama Times of India
Obama slams Clinton's 'special ties'
Times of India
Clinton opens up lead over Obama in new poll CNN Clinton at 48 percent, Obama at 26 percent ..... Clinton's support is up 8 percentage points from a similar poll conducted three weeks ago, while Obama, at 26 percent, is down 2 percentage points. .... Clinton later called Obama's answer "naive" -- a critique that may have struck a cord with her party's base. Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents now significantly favor Clinton to handle terrorism, the Iraq war and relations with "nations that are unfriendly to the United States." ....... A Newsweek poll suggests Clinton holds a 23-point lead, while the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put the lead at 21 points. ..... In early primary and caucus states like New Hampshire and Iowa, however, some polls show Clinton, Obama and former Sen. John Edwards virtually tied. And other state polls show Clinton with a lead, but one far smaller than national surveys like the latest USA Today/Gallup, Newsweek and NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls.

Middle America, Meet The Hackers Forbes DefCon, the largest gathering of hackers, crackers and security professionals in the world ..... DefCon's true spirit: smart people getting together to mess around with technology. ...... organized cybergangs in Eastern Europe and Asia .... six federal employees revealed themselves in press conferences and panel discussions. More bizarrely, two federal agents were married during the conference's closing ceremony. ...... the "Titan Rain" attacks that penetrated the U.S. Department of Commerce and Department of State computers in past years. ....... "We simply don't take the law as a moral compass," he says. ...... Internet culture has always bent, and sometimes broken, the legal rules. ..... have now grown up and, like himself, launched legitimate careers in security with big-name tech companies ..... a passion for technology. It's thinking about what technology can do, rather than what it was originally intended to do
Who Paid for Sarkozy's Vacation? Forbes The estate can be rented for $30,000 a week ..... "In every situation, and even on vacation, he represents France" ..... "I'm in Wolfeboro because I have friends who have been coming here for years, who told me that it was rural America, the America we love, with forests, lakes and tranquility," Sarkozy said. "They have been coming for years, they rented a house, they invited us, period." ...... Sarkozy lost his temper with two American news photographers covering his vacation, jumping onto their boat and scolding them loudly in French.
Obama Can't Wait To Meet Rudy's Daughter CBS News
Giuliani child draws attention as Obama supporter Washington Post
Giuliani’s Daughter Shows Support for Obama, for a Time New York Times
Poll: Democrats favor Clinton over Obama
Xinhua
Clinton proposes crackdown in mortgage market
Reuters
Clinton proposes crackdown on predatory lenders WCAX
Edwards, Obama Press Lobby Issue
Washington Post Edwards says lobbyists "rig the system." ..... "If you don't think lobbyists have too much influence in Washington, then I believe you've probably been in Washington too long."
Sen. Clinton slammed for taking $400K from lobbyists CNN
Giuliani calls for tougher laws to combat sexual abuse of children
San Diego Union Tribune tougher laws against the sexual abuse of children and greater enforcement of regulations .... two of the biggest problems facing youngsters: sex abuse and drug use. ..... control an increasing international business of child pornography.

Sarkozy snaps at photographers while on US holiday Independent
10 things you should know about VoIP over wireless
TechRepublic your VoIP service, which is usually far less than the cost of cell phone service and may offer free unlimited international calling, something you don’t get with most cellular plans. Lenovo or No, Linux Not There Yet Red Herring analysts say it’ll be years before desktop Linux can seriously threaten proprietary systems like Windows. .... “In terms of elegance and aesthetics, Microsoft and Apple are many years ahead of Linux.”
Lenovo to offer Linux on laptops BBC News
Dell asked customers for suggestions for new products on the company's website: Linux PCs were the most-requested item. .... Linux can be freely distributed, modified and used by anyone who wants it. .... approximately 6% of computers users run Linux, similar to the numbers choosing Apple Macs.
Foods Tastes Better With McDonald's Logo, Kids Say Forbes

Large numbers of US weapons delivered to Iraq gone missing: report People's Daily Online
190000 US guns supplied to Iraqi forces missingIrish Examiner
GAO Report: 30 Percent Of US Weapons Missing In Iraq [] RTT News
Bush Differs With Karzai on Iran’s Role in Afghanistan
New York Times Karzai characterized Iran as “a helper” .... Bush pointedly disagreed, saying, “I would be very cautious about whether the Iranian influence in Afghanistan is a positive force.” .... the Qaeda network had reconstituted itself in the mountainous territory along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
S Asia flood victims desperate for food, clean water Daily Times
Giuliani backs Obama San Diego Union Tribune
Pure Horserace: Romney Feels The Heat CBS News
Wal-Mart reaches deal with local company to enter India International Herald Tribune Wal-Mart Stores and India's Bharti Enterprises have reached a deal to jointly build wholesale outlets and manage a supply chain for retail stores across the country ...... India's booming, but much protected, retail business, which is currently dominated by an estimated 12 million mom and pop shops
Career women in Japan find a blocked path Since the Equal Employment Opportunity Law was passed in 1985, women have become a common sight on factory floors, at construction sites and behind the wheels of taxis. But they have had much less success reaching positions of authority, which remain the preserve of gray-suited salarymen. ..... women held 42.5 percent of managerial jobs in the United States in 2005 ...... the nation's notoriously demanding corporate culture, particularly its expectation of morning-to-midnight work hours. .... Even with cases of blatant discrimination, lawsuits remain rare because of a cultural aversion to litigation. Another big problem has been that the equal opportunity law is essentially toothless. ...... ingrained social attitudes about gender roles. ...... she is the only woman in a group of some 160 heads of Nissan suppliers. The first time she attended the group's twice-annual meetings, she says she was asked to wait in a room with secretaries. ...... she earns 10 percent to 20 percent less than men her age. Younger male colleagues ask her and other women to push elevator buttons for them and serve tea.
Darfur political process resumes after long deadlock Xinhua
Poll: Clinton widens lead on Obama
USA Today
Latest USAT/Gallup Poll gives Clinton 22-point lead over Obama USA Today
The Obama Republican Iowa Debate The Gate - National Journal




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