Hillary Messed Up On Iraq, And Al Qaeda Is Strong, America Insecure

If there is another 9/11 - I hope not, I pray not - but if there is one, it will likely be nuclear. It will be bigger than the 9/11 of 2001. Why? Because the Al Qaeda is stronger today than it was on September 10, 2001. Much stronger. Such an attack would fundamentally destabilize global politics. America will come under enormous internal pressure to hit back. But hit back where? The Al Qaeda prays that the US launch a nuclear attack on Iran. That is what it wants. It sees benefits, anger among Muslims worldwide that it hopes to feed on.

America has spent over $500 billion and over 3,300 American lives to take its eyes off the Al Qaeda. That was the mistake that Bush made and Hillary and Edwards were party to. It is a kind of mistake that you do not get to apologize for.

Iraq is Bush's dumb war that would be slightly palatable if it were only dumb. It has been cruel.

The Al Qaeda is not a state, it never was, does not ever intend to be. It knows it will never be. Steam is not water. Steam is vapor. All Bush had was a boat, so he gladly wade into water. The Al Qaeda does not have allies among Arab governments. If it acquires nuclear material, it will not be from some Arab state, it will be on the black markets of the world, likely the former Soviet Union, and again not from any state.

Afghanistan was a just war. The Taliban was in power in Afghanistan. The Taliban treated the Al Qaeda leadership like state guests. The Al Qaeda struck America. The Taliban refused to hand over the gulity. America hit back. Toppling the Taliban was good, but letting go the Al Qaeda leadership was disaster. For an autocratic organization like the Al Qaeda, both in its thinking and its operations, nabbing, eliminating the leadership is key. Osama has to disappear. There is no other way. The Maoists in Peru were pretty vicious. They were about to take over. But then Gonzalo was captured and put away, and the Maoist insurgency in Peru pretty much disappeared.

Osama crossed into Pakistan, and suddenly he was deemed beyond reach. Why? The part of Pakistan that Osama lives in is not really part of Pakistan although it looks so on the map. Pakistan's central government does not have a presence there.

A successful anti-Al Qaeda operation will have to think like them, move like them, operate like them. The key is to penetrate their central operations. The key is to get Osama himself.

W's mandate was to nab Osama, he instead nabbed Saddam. Thanks to Cheney, most Republicans think Saddam was the one who masterminded 9/11. The two l-o-o-k different, among other things.

Osama is a very new strain of virus. Old antibiotics will not work. Standing armies were cultivated for state enemies. The Al Qaeda is organized to foil technology. Satellites can help, bu they won't go all the way. Human intel is the only way to get to him. And there is not much of an effort.

I keep bringing the swamp and mosquitoes metaphor. The real task is to spread democracy into all Arab countries. And it can be done like clockwork, the progressive way. That is to drain the swamp. But you got to go after the mosquitoes regardless. I wish there were a way to invite Osama to debate and defeat him in debate, but there isn't.

Those who voted for the Iraq War now think they get to apologize by simply being for pulling the troops out. And they are missing the point all over again. Where is your strategy for going after the Al Qaeda? Why will you not apologize for taking the eyes off the Al Qaeda? While you were looking the other way, they grew and grew and grew.

This is about security, that most fundamental of expectations. Hillary messed up big time.

How can you deal with a threat you can not even see?

Al Qaeda Strikes India, Wants Hindu-Muslim Riots
Bush Nabbed Saddam, His Mandate Was To Nab Osama

In The News

Sen. McCain's Campaign Manager, Strategist Resign (Update2) Bloomberg
Hispanics expected to be state's majority by 2042 San Francisco Chronicle
Obama Challenges Rivals on Iraq War Forbes Barack Obama on Tuesday dismissed his Democratic rivals' change of heart on the Iraq war as too little too late ..... Obama, an Illinois senator, and Clinton, a New York senator, focused on the nearly 4 1/2 year war in dueling speeches only a few city blocks apart in the first-in-the-nation voting state of Iowa. ....... "Being a leader means that you'd better do what's right and leave the politics aside because there are no do-overs on an issue as important as war," Obama said, adding that the Iraq war should never should have been authorized or waged. ...... Clinton, along with West Virginia Sen. Robert Byrd, will introduce an amendment to repeal congressional authorization for the war. It would require President Bush to seek new authority from Congress to extend the conflict beyond Oct. 11, 2007, five years after the original permission was given. ...... Obama is taking the lead on amendments that would boost funding for mental health services for veterans and require better government oversight of military contractors. ..... Biden .. continuing to push a plan to partition Iraq along ethnic lines. ..... "Make no mistake. Violence in Baghdad remains at unacceptably high levels," but the United States and Iraq seem to be "moving in the right direction," McCain said. ....... Clinton's biggest applause in her speech in the ornate ballroom of the Temple for the Performing Arts came when she touted her legislation to deauthorize the war. ...... an upcoming report on the war's progress will show that Iraq's political leaders have not achieved any of the goals.
Obama Challenges Rivals On Iraq War Guardian Unlimited
Obama vs. Clinton MSNBC "I believed then and still do that being a leader means that you'd better do what's right and leave the politics aside, because there are no do-overs on an issue as important as war." .... he has more troops in Iraq than ever and the Iraqi government is more fractured and ineffective than ever.
Clinton Pollster Likes What He Sees Washington Post she is doing spectacularly. .... "Hillary's electoral strength has grown in the last quarter in third place, similar to the advantage she has enjoyed in .... Clinton (N.Y.) ahead of her closest Democratic competitor, Obama, by 16 points, with non-candidate/former vice president Al GoreWashington Post-ABC polls since February. ...... Penn freely cherry-picks from public data in making his case ...... Penn leaves out the fact that, in the same poll, Clinton had a five-point advantage over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) -- while Obama had a 10-point lead. .... Edwards ... expensive haircuts, a lavish new house and a stint working for a hedge fund. ..... will "take a break from his normal campaign schedule of events and take the campaign on the road for three days, through eight states and 12 towns and cities, in order to bring attention to the 37 million Americans living in poverty" ...... bring the issue of poverty front and center in the presidential race
Obama Campaigns in Ala. Forbes
Obama's Alabama stops pull more than $100000 Birmingham News
Obama In Ala.: `Something's Got To Change' NBC13.com
Obama's views not always what some expect
USA Today making a habit of telling people things they don't necessarily want to hear on subjects ranging from fuel standards and fatherhood to homophobia and teacher pay. ..... The technique is winning the Illinois senator some attention and helping stoke broad interest in his candidacy .... what makes you a man is not the ability to have a child but the courage to raise one .... He must counter the assumption that because he's black, he'll have a "wild progressive agenda." .... Obama drew 40% black support last month in Gallup's annual Minority Relations poll, followed closely by New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at 38%. ...... Obama makes his points "in a very calm, measured way" that reinforces his broader message that "the time has come to try to bridge some differences and deal with real problems confronting people." ...... Obama's "small lapses" from the party line .... "That makes him very interesting to a lot of people who might otherwise tune him out: independents, moderates, swing voters and would-be Republican defectors."
Books drive rock-star buzz
Upper-income black donors back Obama Obama has received nearly double the number of contributions from zipcodes with high concentrations of wealthy African Americans than his closest Democratic rival Hillary Clinton ....... the former first lady attracts more support from women and lower-income workers than her party rivals. Obama does better with independents and higher-income voters. The analysis is another sign that economics drives their support as much as race or gender.
Obama not what some black voters expect Earthtimes.org
Poll: Clinton, Giuliani widen leads over nearest 2008 rivals
USA Today Among Republicans, former New York City mayor Giuliani has support of 30% of Republicans and Republican leaners, up 2 percentage points from last month and a 10-point lead over former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson. ...... Clinton has support of 37% of Democrats and Democratic leaners surveyed, vs. 33% a month earlier. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's support is unchanged at 21%.
Sweet blog extra: Clinton new strategy memo by strategist Penn ... Chicago Sun-Times Hillary’s electoral strength has grown in the last quarter .... Hillary’s support in the last few months has strengthened nationally, in key states and in the general election. ..... So far the debates have been the key moments where the voters get to see all the candidates side by side and they have shown just how ready Hillary is to be president and how she has the strength and experience to make change happen. ....... There will be another debate every month from now until the end of the year ...... Hillary's lead in the Democratic primary nearly doubled from 12 points in May to 23 points now. Hillary's favorability has risen to 57% among all Americans, and they say overwhelmingly she has the experience to be a good president (70%). Nearly two-thirds say there is a good chance or some chance they will vote for her (62%). ...... Hillary leads top Republican Rudy Giuliani by seven points (51 percent to 44 percent) in the last Newsweek poll, up from just three points a month ago. ..... Hillary leads Giuliani in all the latest national polls ..... Hillary is tied or ahead of Giuliani in key battleground states which Democrats lost in both 2000 and 2004, including Florida, Ohio ..... and West Virginia. ...... The profile of voters supporting other contenders, according to Cook, resembles the "support profiles of Gary Hart in 1984, Paul Tsongas in 1992 and Bill Bradley in 2000. The numbers are splashy and significant but not sufficiently broad-based to capture a nomination." ...... Her lead in the Democratic primary widens to 29 points among non-whites. ...... the extraordinary enthusiasm for Hillary among women .... Hillary has a 22 point lead over her closest competitor among those who earn less than 50 thousand dollars per year. ..... Every major poll shows Hillary’s lead increasing in the Democratic primary. ... Hillary has a 14.3 percentage point lead, a widening of 5.5 percentage points in the last 3 weeks. ..... In recent election cycles, any time a candidate has had as much as 35 or 40 percent of the vote consistently across polls in a multi-candidate field, that candidate has gone on to win the nomination.
CBS News June 26-28: HRC 48 / Obama 24 / Edwards 11
May 18-23: HRC 46 / Obama 24 / Edwards 14
Cook/RT Strategies June 21-23: HRC 35 / Obama 24 / Edwards 15
June 15-17: HRC 32 / Obama 22 / Edwards 16
CNN June 22-24: HRC 43 / Obama 25 / Edwards 17
May 4-6: HRC 41 / Obama 27 / Edwards 14
Fox June 26-27: HRC 47 / Obama 21 / Edwards 13
June 5-6: HRC 41/ Obama 26 / Edwards 15
Gallup June 4-24: HRC 41 / Obama 24 / Edwards 14
June 1-3: HRC HRC 37 / Obama 35 / Edwards 13
NBC/WSJ June 8-11: HRC 39 / Obama 25 / Edwards 15
April 20-23: HRC 36 / Obama 31 / Edwards 20
Newsweek June 20-21: HRC 43 / Obama 14 / Edwards 14
Why has Hillary’s lead grown as voters are exposed to all candidates? Debates .... In the June 28 Democratic debate in Washington DC, 27 out of 33 participants in a Luntz Maslansky dial group (81%) said Hillary won, compared with just 2 (6%) for her closest competitor. ....... In the June 8-11 NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 61% of Democrats and Democratic primary voters said that Hillary would bring real change to the direction of the country. 56% of voters say that about her nearest competitor.
New Hampshire Primary
June 20-24: HRC 37 / Obama 19 / Edwards 9 / Richardson 9
Feb 24-28: HRC 28 / Obama 26 / Edwards 17 / Richardson 2
South Carolina Primary
June 26-30: HRC 37 / Edwards 22 / Obama 21
May 23-26: HRC 34 / Edwards 30 / Obama 18
Nevada Caucus
June 20-22: HRC 39 / Obama 17 / Edwards 12 / Richardson 7
April 30-May 1: HRC 37 / Edwards 13 / Obama 12 / Gore 9 / Richardson 6
Iowa Caucus
June 26-30: HRC 32 / Edwards 29 / Obama 13 / Richardson 5
April 27-30: HRC 23 / Edwards 27 / Obama 19 / Richardson 5
June 22-24: Edwards 26 / Obama 21 / HRC 20 / Richardson 11
May 18-20: Edwards 29 / Obama 24 / HRC 16 / Richardson 9
Mason-Dixon June 13-16: HRC 22 / Edwards 21 / Obama 18 / Richardson 6
And in the primary states with the most delegates (Florida, New York, California, Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio), Hillary has an overwhelming lead.
Florida – Quinnipiac June 18-25: HRC 43 / Obama 16 / Edwards 11 / Richardson 2
California – PPIC June 12-19: HRC 41 / Obama 25 / Edwards 12 / Richardson 3
New York – Siena June 18-21: HRC 43 / Gore 19 / Obama 11 / Edwards 9 / Richardson 1
Ohio – Quinnipiac June 18-25: HRC 40 / Edwards 12 / Gore 12 / Obama 12
Pennsylvania – Quinnipiac June 18-25: HRC 32 / Obama 18 / Gore 16 / Edwards 7
Texas – Texas Lyceum April 26-May 7: HRC 33 / Obama 21 / Gore 10 / Edwards 8 / Richardson 3
CNN June 22-24: HRC 49 / Giuliani 48
USAT/Gallup Poll: Steady leads for Giuliani & Clinton USA Today

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