Tuesday, July 18, 2017

$78 Trillion Richer



there are “trillion-dollar bills on the sidewalk”. One seemingly simple policy could make the world twice as rich as it is: open borders. ....... Workers become far more productive when they move from a poor country to a rich one. Suddenly, they can join a labour market with ample capital, efficient firms and a predictable legal system. ....... “Labour is the world’s most valuable commodity—yet thanks to strict immigration regulation, most of it goes to waste” ....... “Making Nigerians stay in Nigeria is as economically senseless as making farmers plant in Antarctica” ....... And the non-economic benefits are hardly trivial, either. A Nigerian in the United States cannot be enslaved by the Islamists of Boko Haram. ...... The potential gains from open borders dwarf those of, say, completely free trade, let alone foreign aid ......... “open borders” means that people are free to move to find work. It does not mean “no borders” or “the abolition of the nation-state”. ....... It is very hard to transfer Canadian institutions to Cambodia, but quite straightforward for a Cambodian family to fly to Canada. ....... The quickest way to eliminate absolute poverty would be to allow people to leave the places where it persists. ...... 630m people—about 13% of the world’s population—would migrate permanently if they could, and even more would move temporarily. Some 138m would settle in the United States, 42m in Britain and 29m in Saudi Arabia. ..... Leaving one’s homeland requires courage and resilience. Migrants must wave goodbye to familiar people, familiar customs and grandma’s cooking. Many people would rather not make that sacrifice, even for the prospect of large material rewards. ....... Wages are twice as high in Germany as in Greece, and under European Union rules Greeks are free to move to Germany, but only 150,000 have done so since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2010, out of a population of 11m. The weather is awful in Frankfurt, and hardly anyone speaks Greek. ......... Even very large disparities combined with open borders do not necessarily lead to a mass exodus. Since 1986 the citizens of Micronesia have been allowed to live and work without a visa in the United States, where income per person is roughly 20 times higher. Yet two-thirds remain in Micronesia. ....... Today there are 1.4bn people in rich countries and 6bn in not-so-rich ones. It is hardly far-fetched to imagine that, over a few decades, a billion or more of those people might emigrate if there were no legal obstacle to doing so. Clearly, this would transform rich countries in unpredictable ways. ....... Mass migration, they worry, would bring more crime and terrorism, lower wages for locals, an impossible strain on welfare states, horrific overcrowding and traumatic cultural disruption. ........ If lots of people migrated from war-torn Syria, gangster-plagued Guatemala or chaotic Congo, would they bring mayhem with them? ...... Granted, some immigrants commit crimes, or even headline-grabbing acts of terrorism. But in America the foreign-born are only a fifth as likely to be incarcerated as the native-born. ....... A study of migration flows among 145 countries between 1970 and 2000 by researchers at the University of Warwick found that migration was more likely to reduce terrorism than increase it, largely because migration fosters economic growth. ....... Immigrants are more likely than the native-born to bring new ideas and start their own businesses, many of which hire locals. Overall, migrants are less likely than the native-born to be a drain on public finances, unless local laws make it impossible for them to work, as is the case for asylum-seekers in Britain. ....... Foreign doctors and engineers ease skills shortages. Unskilled migrants care for babies or the elderly, thus freeing the native-born to do more lucrative work. ....... most Western cities could build much higher than they do, creating more space. ...... Would mass immigration change the culture and politics of rich countries? Undoubtedly. Look at the way America has changed, mostly for the better, as its population soared from 5m mainly white folks in 1800 to 320m many-hued ones today. ....... nearly all these risks could be mitigated, and many of the most common objections overcome, with a bit of creative thinking. ...... one solution would be not to let immigrants vote—for five years, ten years or even a lifetime. This may seem harsh, but it is far kinder than not letting them in. ....... why not charge them more for visas, or make them pay extra taxes, or restrict their access to welfare benefits? ...... it is better for the migrants than the status quo, in which they are excluded from rich-world labour markets unless they pay tens of thousands of dollars to people-smugglers—and even then they must work in the shadows and are subject to sudden deportation. Today, millions of migrants work in the Gulf, where they have no political rights at all. Despite this, they keep coming. No one is forcing them to. ...... If a world of free movement would be $78trn richer, should not liberals be prepared to make big political compromises to bring it about?
There is a political solution: the creation of a world government. And there is a technical solution: a biometric ID for every person on earth.

Saturday, May 27, 2017

India-Japan Should Compete With OBOR

OBOR is an ambitious infrastructure initiative. But it makes tremendous sense for India and Japan to compete with it. Numerous small countries across Asia and Africa would benefit.

India is a political rival to China and Japan is an economic rival. Both are giant democracies that counter the police state suggestions of China.

Physical infrastructure can not be the only thing. India can offer a more holistic model of development.

The synergy will benefit India much as Japan is in a position to make massive investments in India.

The India Japan partnership could thrive without American or European participation. It is big enough on its own.

Monday, May 22, 2017

One Belt One Road: China's Marshall Plan For Asia And Africa?

China's much touted One Belt One Road initiative is easily Xi Jinping's favorite project. It is being projected as a revival of the ancient Silk Route. It also has echoes of the American Marshall Plan that rebuilt Europe from scratch after the utter devastation of World War II. It is ambitious. It is fundamental. It is well intentioned. It is a giant billboard that announces, China Is Back.

It can not be all loans to poor countries. There will have to be generous grants. The loans will have to be at near zero rates with the option to forgive in a decade or two or three. Handled well the infrastructure projects will pay for themselves, both for China as well the recipient countries. China will gain much from increased trade, just like a revived Europe bought much from America.

India should participate, although it should maintain an active voice. Many small countries will benefit if India talks along the way.

Sunday, March 19, 2017

Happy Holi

Saturday, March 18, 2017

рдпोрдЧी рдЖрджिрдд्рдпрдиाрде, рд╕ुрд░्рдп рдирдорд╕्рдХाрд░ рдФрд░ рдкिрддा рдкрд░рдоेрд╢्рд╡рд░



Leave India if you are opposed to surya namaskar: Yogi Adityanath



рд╕ुрд░्рдп рджेрд╡ рдЬिрд╕ рдкिрддा рдкрд░рдоेрд╢्рд╡рд░ рдХो рдирдорд╕्рдХाрд░ рдХрд░рддे рд╣ैं, рдЬिрдирдХी рдЕрд░ाрдзрдиा рдХрд░рддे рд╣ैं, рдоुрд╕рд▓рдоाрди рдЙрд╕ी рдкिрддा рдкрд░рдоेрд╢्рд╡рд░ рдХे рд╕ाрдордиे рд╕рд░ рдЭुрдХाрддे рд╣ैं। рдЗрддрдиा рдЬ्рдЮाрди рдпोрдЧी рдЖрджिрдд्рдпрдиाрде рдЖрд░्рдЬрди рдХрд░рдиे рдХा рдХрд╖्рдЯ рдХрд░ें।


Friday, March 10, 2017

Modi Is On A Roll




Modi is on a roll. рдЕрдорд░िрдХा рднी рдЗрд╕ी рддрд░рд╣ резрежреж рдбॉрд▓рд░ рдХा рдиोрдЯ рд╡ाрдкрд╕ рд▓े рд▓े рддो рджुрдиिрдпा рдоें рдЬिрддрдиे рдб्рд░рдЧрд▓ोрд░्рдбрд╕ рд╣ैं рд╕рдм рдПрдХ рд╣ी рдЭрдЯрдХे рдоें рд╕рдоाрдк्рдд। The most popular politician in the world is about to get even more popular.

If BJP wins Uttar Pradesh, get ready for more Modi crackdowns
As various exit polls showed on Thursday, the BJP can form a government in Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur and, most importantly, Uttar Pradesh. ...... The BJP victory in Uttar Pardesh and other states will mean popular endorsement of demonetisation. This can embolden PM Modi and encourage him to take more such sudden and extreme steps. ...... victories in recent Assembly elections can encourage him to begin his next crackdown, and this could be on benami properties. ...... An idea that has been associated a lot with PM Modi's radical reforms is a banking transaction tax replacing the income tax entirely or partly. ....... Another measures he has spoken a lot about are holding Assembly and Lok Sabha elections simultaneously and state financing of elections.
рдкाँрдЪ рд╕ाрд▓ рдоें рджो рдЪुрдиाрд╡ рдХाрдлी рд╣ै। рд▓ोрдХрд▓, рд░ाрдЬ्рдп рдФрд░ рдХेंрдж्рд░ рд╕рдм рдоिрд▓ा рдХे рдкाँрдЪ рд╕ाрд▓ рдоें рджो рдЪुрдиाрд╡।

Monday, February 13, 2017

An Actor Can Not Exceed The Script

The script is everything. A show or a movie floats or sinks on the strength of the script, or lack thereof.

In India there is a saying. A bad cook adds extra chili powder to everything. Mindless plot twists, and mindless use of sex and violence are often used as that extra chili powder.

There are countless movies about people falling in love. But the theme of deepening of love in an existing relationship is not much explored. How do you go deeper after you have been married 15 years? Such themes are not much explored.

Law enforcement is another perennial topic and rightly so. But law enforcement does not only struggle with those that might cross the law. Law enforcement struggles with itself, it struggles with diversity issues.

Why only law enforcement? What about commandment enforcement? The complex organizational structure of something like the Catholic Church is not any less fascinating than that of a large police department or intelligence agency.

And the four constantly intersect: human love, divine love, law enforcement, commandment enforcement.

Diversity is not just about sprinkling a few different kinds of faces on to the screen. Culture is a body of knowledge. Gender is its own culture. And gender, as we know by now, is not binary, but a spectrum, not just in society but also inside individuals. Inside every man there is a woman.

Technology changes the basic assumptions. Digitization is a huge force. For one it creates numerous fragmented markets of different sizes. Costs can go down.

Story telling is as old as humanity. Movies might be a new art form. But not story telling. Art speaks to society. Society speaks to art. Movies as an art medium are uniquely positioned to help humanity make progress on race and gender issues. I am talking social science fiction.

A better actor can better respond to the script but an actor can not rise above the script.

In the post 9/11 era intelligence agencies from different countries with fundamentally different languages and cultures have tried to collaborate. But pre 9/11 the two major intelligence agencies in this very country acted like they were in different countries.

Cultural diversity is not just skin pigments. Were that so it would be so much easier. Diversity is primarily sociology. You can have everyone speak English and try to cover it up, but it does not go that way.

This is now the era of global movie making where you confront diversity head on. You actually immerse into the different cultures in their natural settings across continents. Stereotyping falls flat. Intellectual laziness falls flat. The texture of diversity is real.

God has decided to come into mainstream movies and music, big time.