Saturday, June 07, 2014

Connecting China And India By Train

China’s expanding rail network in Tibet nears Sikkim
Qinghai–Tibet Railway
Extension to bring Tibet railway line closer to India
Tibet Train Map
China plans taking Tibet rail network near Sikkim
Extend Tibet railway line to Kathmandu, Nepal tells China
India could take out Qinghai-Tibet Railway to cripple PLA







This is the Asian Century and China is taking the lead. Between them China and India are looking good. And the number one fallout of this new development has to be that hundreds of millions of new people get to get out of poverty. To that end railways connections between the two countries would go a long way. One would go through Sikkim, another would go through Nepal, through Kathmandu, the capital city, and on south to India.

Beijing has plans to become the capital city of the world by forging railway connections to all continents except Antarctica. There is talk of a train route to the continental US through Alaska. Another route to Africa. There is already one to Germany.

You can't go to America, and Africa and ignore India.

There is a huge peace dividend to such railway extensions. Every billion you spend on such railways is a billion you do not have to spend on defense, something like that. Defense expenditures are a one way street, whereas trains make you money.
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The Federal Front Is A Great Idea

English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Baner...
English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


If and when Modi's time is up, it will be someone from the Federal Front who will take over. That is what I foresee. And so step one perhaps is a Federal Front leading the opposition.

AIADMK 37
Trinamool Congress 34
Biju Janata Dal 20

That alone is 91.

Telangana Rashtra Samiti 11

That takes it past 100, which is double whatever the Congress can muster.

Credit goes to Mamata for coining the term.

There is a real role in the Upper House for this Front.

The BJP grew almost entirely at the expense of the Congress. The BJP did not eat much into the votes of the non-Congress, non-BJP parties which together get as many votes as the Congress and the BJP combined. That is grounds for a pre-poll formal, structured alliance.

You broker peace between Mulayam and Mayawati and you get Uttar Pradesh, you broker peace between Nitish and Laloo and you get Bihar. Delhi goes to whoever gets the Hindi heartland.

But right now my bet is the BJP will also form the state government in Uttar Pradesh in a few years. Bihar, I don't know. I don't know what Nitish has on his mind. I think he would like to fight solo and sweep Bihar like his colleagues Mamata, Jayalalita and Patnaik.

Regional parties may form ‘federal front’, isolate Congress in Parliament
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Soda, Pop, Coke


Friday, June 06, 2014

Modi, 15 Years, $18 Trillion Indian GDP

Nehru
Nehru (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
If India's GDP stands at $6.3 trillion today, and any growth rate below 10% is a failing grade from me to Modi, and assuming he is Prime Minister for 15 years, at a 10% growth rate the GDP would double every seven years, which means the Indian GDP should stand at $18 trillion by the time Modi is done. Anything less and I will label him a failure.

At 18 trillion India will still be number three. China and the US will not stay stagnant.

If he is Prime Minister for 15 years, he will be to the BJP what Jawaharlal Nehru is to the Congress' imagination.

I think one challenge for Modi is to rope in Nitish Kumar. It is tricky political challenge. But now the onus is on Modi since he is the winner.

UPA-II wasted Laloo by not retaining him at the head of Railways. The Modi Sarkar might go on to waste Nitish if Nitish does not make a comeback as Chief Minister of Bihar.

Modi in Delhi and Nitish in Patna would be the best possible combo. Both could do 15 more years. What is Modi's weakness is Nitish' strength, and it is to do with the human development index part of development. Modi is good for business, but the Gujrat story tells us human development has not been his forte.

Sushil Modi could not what Nitish has done in Bihar. Maybe Narendra Modi should take the lead, and Sushil Modi and Nitish Kumar should meet and talk, and find a way to revive the alliance. That would mean double digit growth rates for India, high double digit growth rates for Bihar, and of course a Special Category Status for Bihar and Orissa.


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Nitish' Options

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंस...
हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Word is Nitish does not want to ally with Laloo for 2015. What might Nitish be thinking?

Nitish should not be surprised that Modi won. It was a contest between Modi and Rahul, and the people picked Modi. Can you blame them?

One of Bill Clinton's laws of politics is, all elections are about the future. It does not matter that you gave Bihar eight good years. The people wanted a strong hand in Delhi, and they got it.

The Third Front did not exist before the elections. And it does not exist today. Jayalalita and Patnaik are prepared to deal with Modi one on one.

Those who aspire for leadership should lead. If Nitish has pan Indian ambitions he should act like it. But all his stated ambitions are to do with Bihar.

And there it might be hard to go solo. Or maybe not.

I don't think reviving his alliance with the BJP is an option. The departure was too clear. Maybe there is no going back there.

I think you are looking at a BJP government in Uttar Pradesh in a few years. Either it will be a Nitish sweep in Bihar next year, or perhaps the BJP will grab Bihar too. Looks like the BJP is also in a good position to wrest the Delhi state government.

Modi will do better in 2019 than he did in 2014. Because I expect him to perform. So the real challenge is how many states will the BJP rule? I can imagine the BJP might want to rule a majority of the states.

Nitish could accept defeat, or he could lead. He performed better as Chief Minister than Modi in Gujrat. He knows how to play the caste equations. Recently the Congress followed Nitish' lead. Nitish installed a Dalit Chief Minister. Subsequently Sonia installed a Dalit to lead the Congress in the Lok Sabha.

Laloo should be given credit for his stint as Railway Minister. He was excellent. The safe route would be to forge a JD(U)-RJD-Congress alliance in Bihar. But if Nitish is going solo, and the Congress is going solo, and the RJD is going solo, and the BJP keeps its alliance intact, then you just might see a BJP government in Bihar next year: Modi in Delhi, another Modi in Patna.

Why did Nitish ditch Modi? Did he do it for Advani? He kept saying the BJP should get someone else from its own ranks. So Modi is communal and Advani is not?

I think there is a clear case to be made along the so-called secular lines. All of the BJP's MPs are Hindu. That does not speak to India's diversity. Just because they won does not make it right. There is room for Nitish, sure. He can outcompete Modi on development. And he can offer a more diverse face, one that in inclusive and respectful of India's second largest group, the Muslims.

But that would require stepping up to the plate.

The BJP's emergence in West Bengal means even there now there is some room for the Left and Mamata to perhaps work together.

But now is not the time for such talk. Today is Modi's day. I give Modi two years to take India's growth rates to 10 per cent and beyond. That is my personal benchmark for him.

I hope Nitish makes a comeback in Bihar. I like the guy.

Modi might stay Prime Minister for 10, maybe even 15 years, and if he does that would mean Nitish will never get to be Prime Minister. Or Nitish could pull his weight, and run Bihar for 10 glorious years, and then hope to take to the helm in Delhi for five years. But that would require architecting a pan Indian opposition.
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