Saturday, June 07, 2014

The Federal Front Is A Great Idea

English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Baner...
English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


If and when Modi's time is up, it will be someone from the Federal Front who will take over. That is what I foresee. And so step one perhaps is a Federal Front leading the opposition.

AIADMK 37
Trinamool Congress 34
Biju Janata Dal 20

That alone is 91.

Telangana Rashtra Samiti 11

That takes it past 100, which is double whatever the Congress can muster.

Credit goes to Mamata for coining the term.

There is a real role in the Upper House for this Front.

The BJP grew almost entirely at the expense of the Congress. The BJP did not eat much into the votes of the non-Congress, non-BJP parties which together get as many votes as the Congress and the BJP combined. That is grounds for a pre-poll formal, structured alliance.

You broker peace between Mulayam and Mayawati and you get Uttar Pradesh, you broker peace between Nitish and Laloo and you get Bihar. Delhi goes to whoever gets the Hindi heartland.

But right now my bet is the BJP will also form the state government in Uttar Pradesh in a few years. Bihar, I don't know. I don't know what Nitish has on his mind. I think he would like to fight solo and sweep Bihar like his colleagues Mamata, Jayalalita and Patnaik.

Regional parties may form ‘federal front’, isolate Congress in Parliament
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Soda, Pop, Coke


Friday, June 06, 2014

Modi, 15 Years, $18 Trillion Indian GDP

Nehru
Nehru (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
If India's GDP stands at $6.3 trillion today, and any growth rate below 10% is a failing grade from me to Modi, and assuming he is Prime Minister for 15 years, at a 10% growth rate the GDP would double every seven years, which means the Indian GDP should stand at $18 trillion by the time Modi is done. Anything less and I will label him a failure.

At 18 trillion India will still be number three. China and the US will not stay stagnant.

If he is Prime Minister for 15 years, he will be to the BJP what Jawaharlal Nehru is to the Congress' imagination.

I think one challenge for Modi is to rope in Nitish Kumar. It is tricky political challenge. But now the onus is on Modi since he is the winner.

UPA-II wasted Laloo by not retaining him at the head of Railways. The Modi Sarkar might go on to waste Nitish if Nitish does not make a comeback as Chief Minister of Bihar.

Modi in Delhi and Nitish in Patna would be the best possible combo. Both could do 15 more years. What is Modi's weakness is Nitish' strength, and it is to do with the human development index part of development. Modi is good for business, but the Gujrat story tells us human development has not been his forte.

Sushil Modi could not what Nitish has done in Bihar. Maybe Narendra Modi should take the lead, and Sushil Modi and Nitish Kumar should meet and talk, and find a way to revive the alliance. That would mean double digit growth rates for India, high double digit growth rates for Bihar, and of course a Special Category Status for Bihar and Orissa.


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Nitish' Options

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंस...
हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Word is Nitish does not want to ally with Laloo for 2015. What might Nitish be thinking?

Nitish should not be surprised that Modi won. It was a contest between Modi and Rahul, and the people picked Modi. Can you blame them?

One of Bill Clinton's laws of politics is, all elections are about the future. It does not matter that you gave Bihar eight good years. The people wanted a strong hand in Delhi, and they got it.

The Third Front did not exist before the elections. And it does not exist today. Jayalalita and Patnaik are prepared to deal with Modi one on one.

Those who aspire for leadership should lead. If Nitish has pan Indian ambitions he should act like it. But all his stated ambitions are to do with Bihar.

And there it might be hard to go solo. Or maybe not.

I don't think reviving his alliance with the BJP is an option. The departure was too clear. Maybe there is no going back there.

I think you are looking at a BJP government in Uttar Pradesh in a few years. Either it will be a Nitish sweep in Bihar next year, or perhaps the BJP will grab Bihar too. Looks like the BJP is also in a good position to wrest the Delhi state government.

Modi will do better in 2019 than he did in 2014. Because I expect him to perform. So the real challenge is how many states will the BJP rule? I can imagine the BJP might want to rule a majority of the states.

Nitish could accept defeat, or he could lead. He performed better as Chief Minister than Modi in Gujrat. He knows how to play the caste equations. Recently the Congress followed Nitish' lead. Nitish installed a Dalit Chief Minister. Subsequently Sonia installed a Dalit to lead the Congress in the Lok Sabha.

Laloo should be given credit for his stint as Railway Minister. He was excellent. The safe route would be to forge a JD(U)-RJD-Congress alliance in Bihar. But if Nitish is going solo, and the Congress is going solo, and the RJD is going solo, and the BJP keeps its alliance intact, then you just might see a BJP government in Bihar next year: Modi in Delhi, another Modi in Patna.

Why did Nitish ditch Modi? Did he do it for Advani? He kept saying the BJP should get someone else from its own ranks. So Modi is communal and Advani is not?

I think there is a clear case to be made along the so-called secular lines. All of the BJP's MPs are Hindu. That does not speak to India's diversity. Just because they won does not make it right. There is room for Nitish, sure. He can outcompete Modi on development. And he can offer a more diverse face, one that in inclusive and respectful of India's second largest group, the Muslims.

But that would require stepping up to the plate.

The BJP's emergence in West Bengal means even there now there is some room for the Left and Mamata to perhaps work together.

But now is not the time for such talk. Today is Modi's day. I give Modi two years to take India's growth rates to 10 per cent and beyond. That is my personal benchmark for him.

I hope Nitish makes a comeback in Bihar. I like the guy.

Modi might stay Prime Minister for 10, maybe even 15 years, and if he does that would mean Nitish will never get to be Prime Minister. Or Nitish could pull his weight, and run Bihar for 10 glorious years, and then hope to take to the helm in Delhi for five years. But that would require architecting a pan Indian opposition.
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Thursday, May 29, 2014

Article 370

Shikaras are a common feature in lakes and riv...
Shikaras are a common feature in lakes and rivers across the Kashmir valley. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The recent row over Article 370 in India surprised me. First, I don't seem to know much about it. I have a vague idea that it is some kind of a special provision for Kashmir that was put in place around independence/partition, but I don't have good knowledge of the details. I guess I can always google it up and I doubt it is that complex a concept.

But this row was bad timing. This was like Bill Clinton became president in 1992 and the gays in the military came up, and that was a major distraction from the major agenda of the economy.

Or it was designed to get the NDA partners to fall in line. I don't need you, so if you speak right on Article 370, I will still keep you. But I doubt that was the idea.

It would be disrespectful of Modi to suggest that.

I actually like the idea of science and math education in madarsas. I did not know science and math were not taught in madarsas when I read that line in the BJP manifesto summary before the election.

I am of the opinion the goal should not be to strengthen hold on Kashmir, the goal should be to attempt a South Asian Economic Union, so national borders are reduced to mere formalities. There is maximum trade and commerce. That is what is in the best interests of the people.

Article 370
This article specifies that except for Defence, Foreign Affairs, Communications and ancillary matters (matters specified in the instrument of accession) the Indian Parliament needs the State Government's concurrence for applying all other laws. Thus the state's residents lived under a separate set of laws, including those related to citizenship, ownership of property, and fundamental rights, as compared to other Indians. ...... Similar protections for unique status exist in tribal areas of India including those in Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Nagaland. However, it is only for the state of Jammu and Kashmir that the accession of the state to India is still a matter of dispute between India and Pakistan still on the agenda of the UN Security Council and where the Government of India vide 1974 Indira-Sheikh accord committed itself to keeping the relationship between the Union and Jammu and Kashmir State within the ambit of this article. ..... The 1974 Indira-Sheikh accord between Kashmiri politician Sheikh Abdullah and then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi stated, "The State of Jammu and Kashmir which is a constituent unit of the Union of India, shall, in its relation with the Union, continue to be governed by Article 370 of the Constitution of India". ...... B. R. Ambedkar, the principal architect of the Constitution of India, was against Article 370 and it was included against his wishes. Balraj Madhok reportedly said, Dr. Ambedkar had clearly told Sheikh Abdullah, "You wish India should protect your borders, she should build roads in your area, she should supply you food grains, and Kashmir should get equal status as India. But Government of India should have only limited powers and Indian people should have no rights in Kashmir. To give consent to this proposal, would be a treacherous thing against the interests of India and I, as the Law Minister of India, will never do it." Then Abdullah went to Nehru, who directed him to N. Gopalaswami Ayyangar, who approached Sardar Patel asking him to do something as it was a matter of prestige for Nehru, who had promised Abdullah accordingly. Patel got it passed when Nehru was on a foreign tour. On the day this article came up for discussion, Dr. Ambedkar did not reply to questions on it though he did participate on other articles. All arguments were done by Krishna Swami Ayyangar.
Integral review of Article 370 overdue, but needs cooperation not confrontation: Congress leader Karan Singh
Accepting that J&K is an 'integral part' of India, Singh said that does not necessarily mean that it has to be treated exactly on par with other states. He said, "Hong Kong is an 'integral part' of China but has been given a special dispensation. There are in fact numerous examples around the world in which, due to special circumstances, certain areas or regions have been given a special dispensation. Though all talk of secession is totally unacceptable and uncalled for, the steam-roller approach is also not appropriate." ..... Singh also said that 50 percent of the area of his father's 84,000 sq miles state is in fact not in Indian possession. "It has been under Pakistan control since the UN's brokered ceasefire on 1 January 1949, and Pakistan has leased a considerable portion of this land to China. An interesting point also is that in the three regions of the state that are with us, Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh, the bulk of public opinion differs sharply on this issue," he said.
Omar Abdullah & Ram Madhav start war of words over Article 370
Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has raised the pitch against the minister of state in the Prime Minister's Office Jitendra Singh's comments on repealing Article 370, saying that the Constituent Assembly will have to be recalled if the new BJP-led government at the Centre plans to pursue this agenda. Taking issue with Abdullah, senior Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh leader Ram Madhav said J&K would always remain an integral part of India, with or without the constitutional provision that grants a special status to the state. ...... "I understand the political compulsion of the BJP but the party should ponder upon the promises they have made to the people. Why attack J&K first?" he asked. ....... Abdullah has been consistently asserting that J&K has not merged but acceded to India. ...... "If you are attempting any change in Article 370, it means you want to renegotiate a new relationship with J&K," PDP president Mehbooba Mufti said. ...... "If BJP wants to bring the J&K people closer, they should talk about strengthening Article 370 rather than abolishing it," she said. "I hope Dr Singh does not put the foot in his mouth again and the Prime Minister intervenes and disciplines his ministers."
What is Article 370? Three key points
till 1965, J&K had a Sadr-e-Riyasat for governor and prime minister in place of chief minister.... According to this article, except for defence, foreign affairs, finance and communications, Parliament needs the state government's concurrence for applying all other laws. Thus the state's residents live under a separate set of laws, including those related to citizenship, ownership of property, and fundamental rights, as compared to other Indians. As a result of this provision, Indian citizens from other states cannot purchase land or property in Jammu & Kashmir. Under Article 370, the Centre has no power to declare financial emergency under Article 360 in the state. It can declare emergency in the state only in case of war or external aggression. The Union government can therefore not declare emergency on grounds of internal disturbance or imminent danger unless it is made at the request or with the concurrence of the state government.
Article 370 part of BJP agenda not NDA's: Nitin Gadkari
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