Wednesday, April 02, 2014

The Magic Six

It is heartening that three of the six are women.

Six regional parties could decide next PM,says Sharad Pawar
Pawar identified the Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Biju Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United) and the AIADMK as the kingmakers in 2014 ...... Mamata, Naveen, Mulayam Singh, Mayawati, Nitish and Jayalalithaa .... On Modi, Pawar said: “You see, my observation in Indian politics is that if anyone tries to project himself too early, he invites trouble and I think BJP and Narendra Modi have started their projection too early and with a definite position. I don'’t know what will happen. My experience, my previous observation, is not very good."

Enhanced by Zemanta

Modi Wave?

English: Nitish Kumar
English: Nitish Kumar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
India is a geographical term. It is no more a united nation than the equator.”
- Winston Churchill

Mamata was the Congress' largest ally, and she quit that alliance and is strongly anti-Congress, and anti-BJP today. Nitish was the BJP's largest ally, and he quit that alliance and is strongly anti-BJP and anti-Congress today. And if the states are like independent countries, the non-Congress, non-BJP parties stand the strongest chance today. My back envelope arithmetic is putting Nitish at the top. He is the best performing politician in India and deserves it.

Why waves don’t matter
Do national narratives or waves play an important role in determining voter preferences across states? Not really, as this analysis shows. Using the definition of a national wave as “a nationwide sentiment that can work either for or against one national party”, historical electoral data analysis reveals that waves are not probably worth squabbling over. The impact of national sentiment on vote- and seat-share has declined significantly over the last four decades as voting preferences get more local and state-specific. This analysis shows India’s national elections may not be national in its true sense but merely a series of state elections held simultaneously to elect a Central government.
Enhanced by Zemanta

Tuesday, April 01, 2014

Bihar: Beyond Agriculture (2)

Bihar School
Bihar School (Photo credit: stevewright316)
Bihar: Beyond Agriculture

The idea would be to largely skip industrialization and focus largely on the knowledge and service sectors. Make Bihar a hub of organic farming. The goal should be to send Bihari vegetables to every kitchen table in India and then beyond. There is margin in green.

You can't have a knowledge economy without 24/7 electricity. And clean energy will come from the mighty rivers upstream in Nepal.

Start out by turning all of Patna into a free WiFi zone. If you can get to Patna from any place in Bihar within six hours, then it makes tremendous sense to turn the capital city into a free WiFi zone city. But you can't stop there. Much road building and bridge building has happened. Next in line is free WiFi, first in the capital city and then in every district headquarter.

You couple free WiFi with cheap Android smartphones. Just like the Chief Minister has been running a bicycle scheme for girl students, he should, after building the free WiFi zones, offer free smartphones to all students who finish high school if they live in free WiFi zones.

Universal primary and secondary education and universal basic health care are key. But then you have to build a string of higher education institutions across the state. You want to launch IITs and IIMs all over Bihar, or their equivalents.

All education and no job creation are no good either. Knowledge workers trained and working in Bihar could be serving companies all over the world. There is software work. There is customer service work. There is back office management work. Those jobs will be created in the private sector, but political guidance helps. You create the right environment, and you sell the vision.

Knowledge workers create more wealth than industrial workers. An emphasis on the service and knowledge sectors might be how Bihar grows from being the poorest Indian state to being a state that compares itself with the leading European economies in a few decades.

And knowledge work is not just about software. Training teachers, professors, health care workers, nurses and doctors is a big win idea. There are huge global opportunities for employment in the education and health sectors all over the world, as in Bihar.

Bihar is well-positioned to compete globally. It has to start imagining a per capital income of $5,000 a year. And the lifelong education concept means even adult Biharis are fair game.
Enhanced by Zemanta