Wednesday, February 05, 2014

The Tamils Of Sri Lanka And The Federalism Question

Tamil woman
Tamil woman (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Sri Lanka is the most literate country in South Asia, and so the ethnic tension on that island is even more tragic. India is a regional power and an emerging global power, but Indians are the "blacks" of countries wherever they live as minorities, and they, like the Chinese, live everywhere. That state of affairs is a blight on India's potential might.

I am an Indian who grew up in Nepal. I identify strongly with the blacks in America because I grew up Indian in Nepal. Tamils are the Indian origin people in Sri Lanka. This is not China's game to play. This is an issue in international law, this is about minority rights everywhere.

Genuine federalism is so fundamental a requirement of a functioning democracy that I would equate it with free speech, and freedom of religion. A non sensitive state should have to answer to an international court when it denies a minority population its just rights, and genuine federalism. And Sri Lanka is a case study.
Enhanced by Zemanta

Keeping The Congress Below 100 And The BJP Below 150

Indian general election, 2009
Indian general election, 2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I think a strongly constituted National Front that runs a national campaign might be able to give a severe blow to the two big parties. It is possible to get the Congress below the 100 mark, and it is also possible for the BJP to be below 150.

But something like that can not happen on its own. There is work involved.

India 2014: Doing The Math For Nitish

BJP 150
Congress 100
AAP 20

JD(U) 35
Trinamool Congress 25
SP 30
BSP 30
AIADMK 30
CPI(M) 20
BJD 20
TDP 10

35 + 25 + 30 + 30 + 30 + 20 + 20 + 10 = 200
Others = 545 - (150 + 100 + 20 + 200) = 75

National Front = 200
AAP = 20
Others = 75

A majority government without either Congress or BJP support. Possible.
Enhanced by Zemanta

National Front Would Be A Good Name

Taj Mahal, Agra, India. Deutsch: Taj Mahal im ...
Taj Mahal, Agra, India. Deutsch: Taj Mahal im indischen Agra. Español: Vista del Taj Mahal, Agra, India. Français : Le Taj Mahal, à Âgrâ, en Inde. Русский: Мавзолей Тадж-Махал, Агра, Индия. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
For the first time in India's history we are about to see a non-Congress, non-BJP coalition that will in every sense be more stable than anything the BJP or the Congress might be able to put together. And so I think a new name and a new structure is warranted. An apt name would be National Front.

This is not a Front that has ever existed before. And the primary differentiating point would be to give the Front a formal structure. There is a need to form a loose federation. Each member party needs to put forth a person who primarily resides in Delhi to form a Coordination Council. It is not a central committee. It is more loose. It is a federation. 

This Coordination Council would meet monthly, and as often as necessary. And it would keep the wheels oiled and running. 

This National Front would complete a fiver year term easy and might even do a 10 year term. It is only a coalition for the central government. Which means it is okay for Mayawati and Mulayam to compete in Utter Pradesh at the state level and still be part of the National Front in Delhi. They both do support the Congress government in Delhi right now, don't they? The same with the Left and Mamata. Jayalalita and DMK might also opt for the same. Laloo might come along later. So it would be okay to compete at the state level. 

Given this formation and the new name I can see Nitish running the show in Delhi for 10 years. All one asks for is double digit growth rates. 
Enhanced by Zemanta

The Recession Is Over

Hillary Clinton 1
Hillary Clinton 1 (Photo credit: Angela Radulescu)
The Great Recession is over and America is on its way to achieving an unemployment level that is near or below 5% and an annual growth rate that approaches 5%, and both might have to wait Barack Obama's third term, but the groundwork has been laid, the work has been done, the nuts and bolts have been put into place.

And so I say, on to Immigration Reform.

The Clintons have been good soldiers to Barack Obams's presidency, and that cements the party's unity. It is deep and genuine.
Enhanced by Zemanta

Barack Obama's Third And Fourth Terms

"That Woman Deserves Her Revenge"

Hillary and Natalie
Hillary and Natalie (Photo credit: Dan Correia)
I was Barack Obama's first full time volunteer in all of New York City where literally every black politician except Bill Perkins was for Hillary. I was early and hard core. For me Hillary is about term limits. Barack Obama deserves a third and a fourth term, and that is where Hillary comes in as far as I am concerned.

Hillary will win big, it is because FDR's third victory was bigger than his first and second victories. The 2008 primary really is not over until Hillary becomes president because that primary had two winners, the first black president and the first woman president.

I have been ready for Hillary since 1991, although I don't see me actively campaigning. I did not in 2012. In 2007-08 it was a real struggle. 2012 was not a struggle, 2016 will be even less so. I am in coasting mode.

And, by the way, stop f________ with Indian diplomats.

Franklin D. Roosevelt 1932 presidential election
Roosevelt won 57% of the vote and carried all but six states. Historians and political scientists consider the 1932-36 elections a realigning election that created a new majority coalition for the Democrats, made up of organized labor, blacks, and ethnic Americans such as Italian-Americans, Polish-Americans and Jews. This transformed American politics and starting what is called the "New Deal Party System"
Landslide re-election, 1936
Roosevelt and Garner won 60.8% of the vote and carried every state except Maine and Vermont.[138] The New Deal Democrats won even larger majorities in Congress. Roosevelt was backed by a coalition of voters which included traditional Democrats across the country, small farmers, the "Solid South", Catholics, big city political machines, labor unions, northern African Americans, Jews, intellectuals and political liberals. This coalition, frequently referred to as the New Deal coalition, remained largely intact for the Democratic Party until the 1960s.
Election of 1940
FDR systematically undercut prominent Democrats who were angling for the nomination, including Vice President John Nance Garner[167] and two cabinet members, Secretary of State Cordell Hull and James Farley, Roosevelt's campaign manager in 1932 and 1936, the Postmaster General and the Democratic Party chairman. Roosevelt moved the convention to Chicago where he had strong support from the city machine (which controlled the auditorium sound system). At the convention the opposition was poorly organized, but Farley had packed the galleries. Roosevelt sent a message saying that he would not run unless he was drafted, and that the delegates were free to vote for anyone. The delegates were stunned; then the loudspeaker screamed "We want Roosevelt... The world wants Roosevelt!" The delegates went wild and he was nominated by 946 to 147 on the first ballot. The tactic employed by Roosevelt was not entirely successful, as his goal had been to be drafted by acclamation. ..... He won the 1940 election with 55% of the popular vote and 38 of the 48 states.
Election of 1944
Roosevelt replaced Wallace with Missouri Senator Harry S. Truman, best known for his battle against corruption and inefficiency in wartime spending. The Republicans nominated Thomas E. Dewey, the liberal governor of New York. The opposition lambasted FDR and his administration for domestic corruption, bureaucratic inefficiency, tolerance of Communism, and military blunders. Labor unions, which had grown rapidly in the war, threw their all-out support behind Roosevelt. In a relatively close 1944 election, Roosevelt and Truman won 53% of the vote and carried 36 states.
Enhanced by Zemanta