Barackface

Monday, March 25, 2013

Modi And Nitish Might Take Turns At The Helm

English: Nitish Kumar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Right now Modi has the momentum. And Nitish has gone on record to say he is not even in the running for the top job. All signs show the NDA led by the BJP will stay intact. The media needs a fight. And a lot of the Nitish versus Modi talk might be a media fantassy. But the fight might not come.

The extreme right in the BJP organizations are housed in the RSS, and the RSS is not warm to Modi. Apparently Modi irks the right wingers inside his own party. And the presence of Nitish' party in the NDA makes it less possible for the BJP to flare its extreme right ways and thinking. Nitish' presence means moderation in the NDA.

The Biju Janada Dal just rallied behind Modi and is showing signs of coming back into the NDA. Mulayam recently sang praises of LK Advani. His party has given outside support to the Congress. It might also opt to give outside support to the BJP.

It just might end up that Modi ends up leading not only the BJP but also an expanded NDA, one where the BJP is the largest party but not the majority party, and that expansion makes room for Nitish to take over at the helm after Modi has served two terms and opts for a voluntary retirement.

And so you might be looking at two terms of Modi and another two terms of Nitish at the helm. That would be good news if it brings about double digit growth rates for India for two decades in a row. But two decades are an extremely long time for a large democracy like India. You always have to watch out for events that fundamentally change the equation, or for personalities that emerge almost out of the blue.

But for now the NDA has momentum, and Modi is striding along. The era of the Congress being the default party for power might be over.

Nitish, Modi Or Rahul?
Nitish In Ramlila Maidan

Nitish, Modi Or Rahul?

English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World Economic Forum in India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Nitish is quite possibly the best Chief Minister India has right now: Bihar is growing the fastest of all Indian states. Narendra Modi of BJP has had an impressive economic record in Gujrat for over a decade now. Rahul Gandhi is a scion of India’s Kennedy family, and his party is the largest. Nitish and Modi are part of the same alliance, but there is a sound possibility of a non-BJP, non-Congress front emerging in 2014. Nitish might be the most qualified to be India’s next Prime Minister, and that judgment might be a little tinted because I am half Bihari, and I take obvious pride in him, as I did in Laloo Yadav’s amazing work as India’s Railways Minister. But then Nitish’ party is rather small, and there are many prime ministerial aspirants among the non-BJP, non-Congress parties. Right now it is not even clear if Nitish is even a prime ministerial candidate. If it is simply Modi versus Rahul, Modi might have a huge anti-incumbency advantage. The ugly 2002 Gujrat riots have been a taint on the Modi name but the Indian Supreme Court has given him a clean chit on it. He likens it to the anti Sikh riots of 1984. It was tragic, but it is hard to pin the blame on any one person. I must admit I do feel uncomfortable about the fact he did not contest a single Muslim candidate in the recent state elections in Gujrat.

I root for Nitish because he is India’s best Chief Minister, because he is a Bihari, and because Nitish as India’s Prime Minister and Imran Khan as Pakistan’s Prime Minister might bring about regional peace and normal relations between the two countries, and also because there is a clear possibility he might make it. India will now on have coalition governments for a long long time. If both the Congress and the BJP fail to go past 150 seats in 2014 that will give a lot of leg room for someone like Nitish.

Both Nitish and Modi talk in terms of surpassing China in terms of economic growth. That is a breath of fresh air coming from the messiest – or most interesting – democracy on the planet. It is hard to predict which way the wind will blow in 2014. Modi’s advantage is that he can, as he has, make it clear he is the BJP’s candidate for Prime Minister. Nitish might not have that option. He might have to count on a friendly configuration emerging after the polls are over. But if Nitish is not in the race and Modi at the top gets the BJP to perform surprisingly well at the polls then it might be Bihar’s good luck that Nitish gets to continue as Chief Minister of Bihar to keep giving that state double digit growth rates. We all know Bihar needs it.

English: Nitish Kumar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Rahul likely is headed to be Leader of the Opposition. He is clean, he is smart, he has a famous last name. He is obviously popular inside his party. But long gone are days when the Congress used to be able to get a majority on its own. And his lack of experience in government – he has not been Cabinet Minister or Chief Minister – might work against him.

It just might be that both Modi and Nitish get to make their way to the top, Modi now and Nitish perhaps two terms later. But such predictions are extremely hard to make for a country like India. The political landscape can alter so fundamentally so fast. Anna Hazare came out of the blue, did he not?

With either Nitish or Modi at the helm India is poised to do well economically, as it deserves to. And 2014 is going to be an election campaign for the history books. My favorite democracy to watch in the world is going to be like a peacock in full dance. India deserves nothing less. Both Gujrat and Bihar have roads that are better than in some states in America. This has been called the Asian century. India is a country to watch, year in year out, decade in, decade out.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Nitish In Ramlila Maidan

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Modi In Delhi

Friday, February 01, 2013

Clinton: To Run Or Not To Run

2016 Talk
Is Hillary Running?

Hillary Clinton is an extremely talented person who is extremely hard working. That is quite a combo. And she is not going to feel like a first woman president, just like Barack Obama did not feel like the first black president to me. My point being, that is not how I see him.

I have a suggestion for her book's title: Ambassador To The World.

After you have been to 112 countries, you deserve to end up in the White House. What preparation! I was in my 20s when I showed up in America. I like the White House occupant to have some deep global perspectives. Barack Obama having partly grown up in Indonesia was a huge plus in my book.

I want Hillary in the White House, and Kirsten Gillibrand there with her, and Susan Rice for Secretary of State, and I want Ashley Judd to kick Mitch McConnell out of Kentucky.

Not knowing if you will run is a great political decision. It keeps the mystery going. I think her inner clock says she will not announce before October 2015. A two year campaign is not her style. But announcing in January 2015 would be best. Learn from Barack. An early announcement would make the primary super easy.

I think her elevation to the White House might bring about an new era in international politics where a female head of state is no longer big news in any part of the world by the time she is done with her two terms. I think I would like that. Or maybe I am being too optimistic.

She would do well to hire all the techno whiz kids of Obama 2008 and 2012, and the grassroots organizing maestros. There is no going back to the old ways that was Hillary 2008 or Bill Clinton 1992.

There is a part of me that does think she is to the Clinton brand name what Ted Kennedy was to the Kennedy brand name. Only one Kennedy became president. And Ted Kennedy was an excellent Senator. He was no slouch. So she can't take things for granted.

Cover of Ashley Judd

Hillary Clinton: 20 years in the spotlight
POLITICAL SCENE: EVALUATING HILLARY CLINTON
What I Learned Covering Hillary Clinton

her immense talent and ambition. Will she seek the presidency in 2016? Clinton doesn’t know. Friends expect her to rest a year or so before taking a final measure of her health and her prospects .... if you don’t think she wants to be president, you don’t know her. ..... In late 1998 or early 1999, people close to Clinton told me she was mulling a U.S. Senate campaign. I was stunned: No sitting first lady had ever contemplated such a move, much less one whose husband had been impeached for lying about an affair....... It took me several days to overcome my doubts. When I finally reported that she was seeking the vacant U.S. Senate seat in New York, another news organization quoted several authoritative sources insisting that she was not. The competition didn’t know what I did: Never bet against Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Why Ashley Judd's Breakup Is Bad News for Mitch McConnell
Interview: Axelrod on Hillary Clinton’s Political Prospects

‘We were friends before we were opponents. She’s tough and skilled and I need someone who will be taken very seriously when they land on foreign soil, because I’m going to be dealing with a financial crisis. I need an A-team.’ ...... “The big question for her is simply whether at this point she wants to do this.” .... “She was the odds-on favorite in 2008 and she didn’t” win, Mr. Fratto said. “It’s not really clear that people who lose their party’s nomination come back and be successful. It’s rare for that to happen. She has been the ‘inevitable’ candidate already. So she has something to prove.”

Clinton's Exit: Either Epilogue or Prelude

Mrs. Clinton would enter the 2016 race for the White House as a solid front-runner. Her presence would likely scare off some other presidential hopefuls ..... For now, she says she wants to sleep, relax and deliver speeches. ..... catching up on about 20 years of sleep deprivation ...... Some of her supporters never warmed to Mr. Obama and would like to see her draw distinctions with the White House in one respect at least: representation of women in government. ..... "It's shameful that a man who got elected by women and people of color and people of different sexual orientation goes and chooses a bunch of white men" for top government roles. ..... she said she was taking medication, adding "that's what people do when you have blood clots."

Iran stepping up support for Syria, Hillary Clinton warns
Barack Obama signs sweeping US defence spending bill
Hillary Clinton's Legacy: Ambassador to the World?

Secretary Clinton achieved more as an ambassador than as secretary of state. Cassidy writes: "The post she really had was that of U.S. Ambassador to the world, and she made a pretty good fist of it." ..... Since 1992, Hillary Rodham Clinton has maintained a consistent level of power in Washington, from first lady to senator to secretary of state. .... Clinton has always had her detractors

Hillary Was a Great Ambassador, Not a Great Secretary of State

Having stopped off in a hundred and twelve countries during her four years as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, in her last week in office, seems intent on visiting almost as many televisions studios. At the weekend, she did “60 Minutes” on CBS. Today, she will be on ABC, NBC, CNN, and Fox. Tomorrow, it’s the BBC. If you are a news producer at CNBC, Bloomberg, New York 1, or the Weather Channel, give the State Department a call. As far as I know, Thursday and Friday are still open. ....... In foreign-policy circles, the knock on Hillary is that, unlike some of her storied predecessors—John Quincy Adams, George C. Marshall, Dean Acheson, Henry Kissinger—she failed to carve out a historically significant role for herself. ...... Marshall gave his name to an economic-recovery plan for war-torn Europe. Acheson laid down the Cold War policy of containment and helped create NATO. Adams helped conceive the Monroe Doctrine, which defined Central and South America as part of the U.S. sphere of influence. Kissinger pioneered détente with the Soviets, instigated a rapprochement with the Chinese, and did much else besides (by no means all of it estimable). By contrast, Hillary’s signature achievements look like small beer. She was the public face of the U.S. response to the Arab Spring, which involved persuading Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian President, to step aside peaceably ..... In carrying out the task she was allotted, she was a big success. It’s just that the nature of her job was very different from the ones that Acheson and Kissinger held. In reality, she wasn’t directing American foreign policy, or anything close. At times, she wasn’t even the Administration’s chief troubleshooter—a niche occupied by a series of special envoys: Richard Holbrooke, George Mitchell, and Dennis Ross. The post she really had was that of U.S. Ambassador to the world, and she made a pretty good fist of it...... In total, she was traveling for four hundred and one days—more than thirteen months—enduring hundreds of long flights and sitting through countless boring meetings

'Hillary Clinton 2016' Hype To Be Further Fueled By Eye-Popping PPP Poll

the former FLOTUS/New York senator/presidential aspirant/secretary of state could put Texas in play..... PPP's newest Texas poll finds that, at least for now, Hillary Clinton could win the state in 2016. This follows on the heels of a survey last month where we found she would have a decent chance of winning Kentucky if she makes another White House bid. .... The going theory is that Texas' growing Hispanic population could be the seed bed for a new generation of majority-tipping Democratic voters

Name Hillary Clinton's book
The new Hillary Clinton

still afflicted by the same problem that hampered her during the up-and-down 2008 campaign: an inability to clearly define her leadership or governing philosophy..... Few modern American politicians have enjoyed quite as dramatic a political rebirth as Clinton has experienced in her four years at the State Department ..... the past week’s farewell tour seems to augur the arrival of The New Hillary..... The leap from State to the White House used to be commonplace in the early days of the Republic. Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams and Martin Van Buren did it. But the last secretary to make the jump was James Buchanan, one of the worst presidents ever, a weakling who ceded the stage to Abraham Lincoln 152 years ago..... Vice President Joe Biden, a Clinton admirer who own gaze is firmly fixed on 2016 ..... once elected Obama adopted Clinton’s “smart power” strategy, an unromantic foreign policy strategy of limited intervention, dictated by circumstance, availability of resources and likelihood of success. It may be a defensible approach, but it’s not one geared at capturing the public imagination....... in an age of ambiguous alliances, asymmetric threats and a diminishing U.S. footprint overseas ...... Clinton’s diffuse achievements — which range from wrangling international support for sanctions against Iran, organizing goodwill missions to off-map countries like Togo and fighting for the rights of oppressed women and girls around the globe

The Obsessive Guide to Hillary Clinton’s Not-Quite-Shermanesque 2016 Denials
Rest Up, Hillary Clinton: 2016 Will Be Different

I surmise that there has never been a national political figure so watched and so examined as has Hillary Clinton..... She is an incredibly smart and talented politician; and as important as her gender is, it is not the primary thing that defines her. Things are different now, and consequently, I think the U.S. is ready to see her as President

How The South Will Rise To Power Again

this year the four best states for business, according to CEO Magazine, were Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Tennessee .... Last year Texas, Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina were four of the six leading destinations for new corporate facilities .... Houston and Dallas are already immigrant hotbeds; Nashville. Charlotte, Atlanta, Raleigh and Orlando all have among the nation’s fastest-growing foreign populations.

Clinton says she doesn't see "getting back into politics"

"...I am really looking forward to stepping off the fast track that I've been on. I've been out of politics as Secretary of State. I don't see myself getting back into politics" ...... in a separate NBC interview she said that she was healthy enough to wage a campaign.

Reinventing Rahul Gandhi
Nitish Kumar best prime ministerial candidate: JD-U leader
Rove: About That 'Permanent Democratic Majority'

Obama has forged a new majority coalition of women, minorities, young people and upscale cultural liberals so large and durable that he can do what no president has done before—pursue a very liberal agenda without serious opposition or defections from his own party. Demography is destiny ..... Demography isn't destiny because nothing is permanent in politics—and Democrats' insistence to the contrary will likely lead them to overreach, ignoring issues such as jobs, anemic growth and deficits in order to tackle gun control and climate change. That would be good for Republicans. Governing from the hard left sunk Democrats in 2010 and would cost them again in 2014.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Rahul, Laloo And Nitish: Having Them All

If it is a choice between Modi and Rahul, I'd opt for Rahul. Modi did not field a single Muslim candidate in Gujrat, that is a major disqualifier in my book. If Modi is the BJP mascot and if Nitish is neither leaving the NDA nor is supporting Modi, that is a weak NDA that will lose. So I think you are looking at a scenario whereby Nitish keeps the NDA intact in Bihar and continues as Chief Minister, but Laloo does much better in Bihar for the national polls and goes on to become Railway Minister again. That would be awesome for Bihar. I like the idea. Nitish perhaps should continue as Chief Minister, which is what he seems to want to do.

New Yorkers can vote for a Republican Mayor and vote overwhelmingly Democratic for the state and national offices. I think Biharis should vote for Nitish and the NDA at the state level, and Laloo for the national level, or at least give him enough seats to matter at the center, something like 15 or 20.