Barackface

Monday, February 14, 2011

Iran, Bahrain and Yemen, Jordan, Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia

Image via WikipediaArab Focus, Microfinance Focus

Los Angeles Times: In Iran, Bahrain and Yemen, protesters take to streets: protesters inspired by the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia take part in street marches..... The tumult in a region normally kept tranquil under the heavy-handed security of conservative Gulf regimes underscored the widening reverberations of new pro-democracy movements in the Middle East ...... the protesters' numbers have been small ..... thousands more people who turned out for the main scheduled march were walking quietly along the sidewalks toward Azadi Square ...... clashes that in some cases involved young demonstrators beating security personnel ...... west of Imam Hussein Square ..... "The police support us, the Iranians support us." ...... "We would like to stress that Feb. 14 is only the beginning. The road may be long and the rallies may continue for days and weeks, but if a people one day chooses life, then destiny will respond." ...... Yemen, meanwhile, was undergoing its fourth straight days of protests ..... Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen's president for more than 30 years

A political revolution is all about momentum. Right now there is momentum. The right thing to do is to stoke the fire. Get the people out into the streets. An amazing regional level political clarity has been achieved. This can not be let go to waste. 2011 is 1989. Two successes in a row are a lot of momentum. This has to be put to good use. Finally Iran's time has come too.

Arab Democracy: What The US Needs To Do: Stay Deeply Engaged
Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards

Los Angeles Times: Egypt military dissolves parliament, suspends constitution: calling for elections within six months ..... the military, the most respected institution in the nation, was edging toward forming a credible democracy ..... the army left intact the ex-president's Council of Ministers to run the government. ...... Cars honked and drove around the city hub for the first time in more than two weeks as scores of soldiers fanned out into the remaining tent cities on the square and unceremoniously tore them down...... several hundred police officers held a protest of their own in front of the Interior Ministry demanding higher salaries, access to government medical care and rehiring of officers fired for disciplinary or administrative violations.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Egypt: Suleiman Is Not An Option

Arab Democracy: What The US Needs To Do: Stay Deeply Engaged
Egypt: The Army May Not Take Over
Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards

Image via WikipediaThe goal of the revolution is regime change. The goal is a total ouster from power of people who are in power. Mubarak has to vacate the scene, and he has to take his entire entourage with him.

Mubarak is not an option. The military is not an option. Suleiman - I don't even know what he looks like and would like to keep it that way - is not an option.

This is a revolution, people. It will settle for nothing less than a total reshaping of Egyptian politics. Democracy's time has finally come, and no dictator or the dicatator's minion is going go get in the way.

Out, Mubarak, out. Take your entourage with you. Don't let the door hit you on your way out.

Arab Democracy: What The US Needs To Do: Stay Deeply Engaged

Image via WikipediaThe US is uniquely positioned to conclude the War On Terror in 2011. The Cold War lasted decades. If we play our cards right, the War On Terror will have only lasted a decade. And Barack Obama might qualify for yet another Nobel Peace Prize.

The way the War On Terror concludes is when every Arab country has been turned into a modern democracy. The roadmap is simple. People come out into the streets and shut the country down completely until the dictator vacates the seat of power. They don't have to leave the country. They just have to vacate the seat of power without engaging in any bloodshed. Then an interim government takes over. That cabinet has one year to hold elections to a constituent assembly. And that's it.

Where the US federal government comes in is there is no other entity that has the option to stay deeply engaged with all levels of the state apparatus in these countries. The idea is to stay neutral politically in the beginning, but make sure there is no bloodshed. And then once the streets have boiled over and achieved tipping point, you call for the dictator's ouster in no unclear terms. You don't incite the street protests. You don't help escalate it. But once they hit that tipping point, you stand on the side of democracy. The clearer stand you take, less bloodshed there will be, and smoother the transitions will be in those countries.

This is not the time to stay neutral. Revolution is not a spectator sport, not for those braving the streets, not for the President Of The United States, not for the Vice President Of The United States, not for the US Secretary Of State.

This momentum that took centuries to build can not be wasted. This is our opportunity to turn the tables across the Arab world. If the sexism in the Arab world has been bothering you, now is the time to act. A country that becomes a democracy starts taking steps to curb all that sexism.

Egypt: The Army May Not Take Over
Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards

Egypt: The Army May Not Take Over

Image via WikipediaMubarak might try to do that. He might decide to punish the people of Egypt by leaving but then handing over the reins to the top generals in the Egyptian army. That might be his way of saying if you think I was bad, how about this?

Mubarak does not have that option. The people of Egypt are not asking for a military dictatorship. That is what they have had for decades. They are in the streets asking for its end, not rejuvenation.

The mightiest army in the world is powerless in the face of a people who have woken up. And the people of Egypt have woken up.

This is how this drama ends. Mubarak leaves. He does not have to leave the country. He just vacates the seat of power. The constitution is amended to get rid of all anti human rights clauses and to make room for an interim government. An interim president - a civilian democrat like that dude who won the Nobel Prize - comes in with an interim cabinet. That interim cabinet brings in an interim constitution within six months and elections to a constituent assembly are held within a year of taking power. At that point the interim cabinet hands over power to that assembly.

That is the roadmap. The fuck with the military.

Arab Focus, Microfinance Focus
Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Arab Dictators Are Shaking

Image via WikipediaEgypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards

New York Times: Allies Press U.S. to Go Slow on Egypt: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates have each repeatedly pressed the United States not to cut loose Egypt’s president, Hosni Mubarak, too hastily, or to throw its weight behind the democracy movement in a way that could further destabilize the region ..... One Middle Eastern envoy said that on a single day, he spent 12 hours on the phone with American officials. ..... There is evidence that the pressure has paid off. On Saturday, just days after suggesting that it wanted immediate change, the administration said it would support an “orderly transition” managed by Vice President Omar Suleiman. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said that Mr. Mubarak’s immediate resignation might complicate, rather than clear, Egypt’s path to democracy, given the requirements of Egypt’s Constitution..... “Everyone is taking a little breath,” said a diplomat from the region ..... “There’s a sense that we’re getting our message through.” .... a sudden, chaotic change in Egypt would destabilize the region or, in the Arab nations, even jeopardize their own leaders, many of whom are also autocrats facing restive populations..... She said that she had spoken to King Abdullah II of Jordan and that President Obama had made calls to other leaders. ...... Administration officials said the tense mood in many of these countries had eased in recent days, as the United States has embraced a transition process in Egypt that does not demand Mr. Mubarak’s immediate departure...... Israeli officials, who have long viewed Mr. Mubarak and Mr. Suleiman
Image via Wikipedia as stabilizing influences in a dangerous region, have made clear to the administration that they support evolution rather than revolution in Egypt. They believe it is important to make changes within the system rather than change the system first and hope stability can be maintained.... he has been the Israeli government’s preferred successor to Mr. Mubarak for several years...... Speaking to Mr. Obama on Sunday, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed of Abu Dhabi, the Emirates’ defense chief, emphasized the need for “stability” in Egypt ..... The crown prince “also stressed the necessity that the period of transition in Egypt should be smooth and organized through the framework of national institutions” ..... Obama also spoke last week with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia..... The Arab leaders all had the same message for the United States, several Arab officials said. They thought Mr. Obama went too far last Tuesday when he said that Mr. Mubarak needed to begin the transition in Egypt “now” — followed a day later by Mr. Gibbs’s declaration that “now means yesterday.” ..... One Arab diplomat likened the democracy movement to a train fueled by university students and human rights advocates..... “Eventually, those students will have to get off that train and go back to school, and the human rights people will have to go back to work, and you know who will be on the train when it finally rolls into the station?” the diplomat asked. “The Muslim Brotherhood.”
Image via Wikipedia

Hillary is not getting it. Mubarak goes. The constitution goes. What comes into place is an interim government and an interim constitution.

America should not feel like it has the option to betray the Arab peoples currently not represented by the governments in place. Washington has been in talks with a whole bunch of illegitimate regimes.

The king of Nepal also tried to scare people by saying if you oust me, you get the Maoists. What these people are saying is if you oust Mubarak, Bin Laden will come into power. Autocrats will use any logic to stay in power.

Hillary needs to stop talking reform b.s. in the face of revolutions. Lead, follow, or get out of the way.

Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement

President George W. Bush and Egyptian Presiden...

Image via WikipediaI am so glad Hillary Clinton lost the 2008 primary. I am so glad Joe Biden lost the 2008 primary. These white folks are acting unreal. Hillary thinks the street action in Cairo is chaos that might bring forth the Islamists on stage. Biden went on record to say "Mubarak is not a dictator." That is what happens to you when you spend too many long years on the US Senate's Foreign Relations Committee.

This reminds me of the American ambassador in Nepal in 2005. The dude was hellbent on suggesting there was only a military solution to the Maoist insurgency, and that the democrats should forge an alliance with the monarch who had just pulled a coup and taken over. Made no sense.

This revolution in Egypt is not the US State Department's doing, but the US State Department is hellbent on undoing it. Why? Assange gets more credit that Hillary on the "chaos" in the streets of Cairo. The exposure showed that the governments of the world are incapable of the rapid change that the world is asking for. The message in Cairo is democracy now, not democracy after Mubarak dies in the presidential palace, peacefully in sleep two decades from now.

Mubarak was always a dictator. The only legitimate way to conclude this revolution is by a total ouster of Mubarak and the taking over of power by an interim government led by that Nobel Prize winning dude. His mandate would be to hold elections to a constituent assembly within a year. Then that assembly takes over power.

Time: Egypt Opposition Defiant over VP Warning: a warning from Vice President Omar Suleiman that if their movement doesn't enter negotiations, a "coup" could take place causing greater chaos, as a mass demonstration in a central Cairo square entered its 16th day...... Many have been sleeping underneath the tanks of soldiers surrounding the square to prevent them from moving or trying to clear the area for traffic....... a coalition of the five main youth groups behind the protests in Tahrir Square ...... U.S. Vice President Joe Biden spoke by phone with Suleiman, saying Washington wants Egypt to immediately rescind emergency laws that give broad powers to security forces — a key demand of the protesters..... "We won't give up," Wael Ghonim promised at one of the biggest protests yet in Cairo's Tahrir Square...... Many protesters fear he aims to fragment the movement with partial concessions and gestures.

If this revolution does not see complete success through a total, unceremonial ouster of Mubarak, the tide will stop. The tide will not spread to the other Arab countries like Saudi Arabia. And maybe it is Saudi Arabia that the US State Department is thinking about. It should not. The Saudi king also has to go.

The next phase of the revolution would be to march on the presidential palace itself. You can not wait forever. You have to take it up one notch.

Connect the dots. Unless all Arab countries have been turned into full fledged democracies, there can be no genuine peace in the Middle East. All those high profile summits organized by the US State Department are sham as long as there is no democracy. And street protests are the best way to bring democracy about. Fan the flames. Don't try to douse them. Saudi Arabia next. Iran all over again.

A democracy movement concludes with an utter, total collapse of the autocratic regime and the taking over of power by an interim government led by the leading democratic activist. And then in a year you hold elections to a constituent assembly.

How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards

Saturday, January 29, 2011

How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?

The point is it is a finite number. There are only so many people Mubarak could kill. We did this in Nepal in 2006. The king of Nepal issued a shoot at sight order, and the people braved the bullets. About two dozen people were shot down before the regime collapsed.

There are only so many people Mubarak can kill. The brave people of Egypt have to not stop. This can be done. Democracy is not an American export. Liberty is an export of the human heart. It comes from inside. This is nothing to do with America.

You don't need no internet. You don't need no mobile phones. You don't need Twitter. All you need is air. You pack the energy into the air. All you have to do is be able to feel the ring of freedom. This is not about technology. This is about that which rings from every human heart. It comes from within.

We did this in Nepal in 2006. One third of the country poured out into the streets. The entire country was flat out shut down. It happened in the big cities, it happened in the remote villages. Women in some remote villages spontaneously came out into the streets banging pots and pans. No more cooking, no more cooking, they chanted. Nobody sent them a tweet. What happened was they breathed in the air. The revolution was in the air. They had always known deep inside their hearts that it is not true only women are supposed to cook. But they had not had the chance to bring that voice out. Finally they felt like they could, because freedom was ringing through the air.

Those women proved you don't need no technology, all you need is air. You have to pack the revolution into the air.

Next stop: Saudi Arabia.

Let Mubarak shoot and kill. How many will he kill? 100? 200? 500? It is a finite number. My guess is it will not cross the 100 mark. Let him kill. If he kills, he dies a Caecescu death himself. I will save my compassion for the tsunami victims.

All the rest of the world has to do is not betray the brave people of Egypt. The brave people of Egypt will do the hard work themselves.

Arab dictators are what stand in the way of genuine Middle East peace. No democracy, no peace.

Third World Guy
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards
Hitting The Road
Iran Democracy
The First Major Revolution Of The 21st Century Happened In Nepal

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards

Image via Wikipedia

New York Times: Violent Clashes Mark Protests Against Mubarak’s Rule: Tens of thousands of people demanding an end to the nearly 30-year rule of President Hosni Mubarak filled the streets of several Egyptian cities on Tuesday, in an unusually large and sometimes violent burst of civil unrest .... Protests also flared in Alexandria, Suez, Mansura and Beni Suef. ..... the protests represented the largest display of popular dissatisfaction in recent memory, perhaps since 1977 ..... opposition to Mr. Mubarak’s rule spreads across ideological lines and includes average people angered by corruption and economic hardship as well as secular and Islamist opponents. ..... a spreading unease with Mr. Mubarak on issues from extension of an emergency law that allows arrests without charge, to his presiding over a stagnant bureaucracy that citizens say is incapable of handling even basic responsibilities. Their size seemed to represent a breakthrough for opposition groups ..... Twitter, the social networking tool that helped spread news of the protests. .... The organizers framed the protest as a stand against torture, poverty, corruption and unemployment....... Asked about their political affiliation, Ms. Khalil’s mother, Mona, said, “We’re just Egyptians.”

When the Soviet Union collapsed, it collapsed like a house of cards. Something similar is going to happen across the Arab world, and the world owes it to the Arab people to not betray. This is not the time to side with Arab dictators, be they in Egypt or Saudi Arabia. The masses deserve nothing less than liberation.

I thought it might start in Iran, but started in Tunisia. But once one house collapses, the domino effect takes over. Every successive collapse gets easier. The masses will rise. The world has to not betray. People and governments across the world have to stand shoulder to shoulder with the rising masses. That is the only way to genuine peace in the Middle East. Only liberated peoples are capable of governments that are capable of peace.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Barack Obama, My President

the 44th President of the United States...Bara...

Image by jmtimages via FlickrAmerica is not my country - I am not evil but sure stateless like Bin Laden - but Barack is my president. I love the guy as much as ever. The only thing he ever needed to do for me was win in 2008, and win he did. All the good stuff he has done has been pure bonus.

I look forward to his State Of The Union speech. My mental machinations for his re-election bid have already begun.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Inciting Violence: Beyond Wrong, It Is Criminal

Barack Obama just had his Oklahoma City moment. A Congresswoman got shot at in Arizona. It is good for him politically. Now the political pendulum will swing. His re-election begins now. That is the political reality. The political pendulum started swinging the way of Bill Clinton after the act of terror in Oklahoma City.

But is the violence worth the price?

There is a political responsibility to be taken. This act of violence was Palin inspired. When you talk in terms of "reloaded" from the podiums of the world, am I supposed to give you a pass just because you are white and not brown like a certain guy by the name of Osama Bin Laden? If you incite violence, you are no different from Osama Bin Laden. Bin Laden does not command an army. He inspires people to engage in acts of violence. He is a sought after man. He is on the wanted lists of the world.

A politician in a democracy speaking from public podiums whose language can be construed as inciting violence is no different from Osama Bin Laden. There is a direct connection between the language the Palins of the world used over the past two years and what ended up happening in Arizona.

The Tea Party Is Getting America Talibanized

Hitting The Road

I hit the road.

I hit the road a long time ago.

I hit the road and saw all of America. When I see a map of the US I see what you see when you look at a NYC subway map if you have been everywhere in New York City like I have been, on foot.

I have seen more of America than anyone who ever ran for President Of The United States.

I hit the road because it is a good idea to survey a country before you take it over.

I did take over.

Barack did it on my behalf.

Image via Wikipedia

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